Champion Hurdle 2021

[Carnage at Taunton]

To = last time out!!

[Carnage at Taunton]

Epatante needs to get past silver streak as well

[charlie]

Should set the race up nicely for Epatante then

Perfectly is she's good enough, which she should be. I knew that was coming

[barizan]

Disagree with being underestimated. What’s he done? Won a Morgiana and people said Saint Roi was the one to take out of it. Ran two poor races apart from that.

Aspire Tower is more underestimated than him surely? Or even Saldier? And that’s only in the CH frame!

I get he wasn’t well last time - he doesn’t want a battle, can’t see him turning the form around with any of the Irish personally.

The form lines with Envoi Allen in the Royal Bond and Shishkin in the Supreme are the 2 best bits of form in my book. The 2 best horses in training. Say what you like anyway, he’ll hit the frame easy. 20/1 the other day was absurd.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yes good novice form lines, but not good form this season. I am pretty sure Shishkin and EA would have won those races Aba contested this season and probably with ease. He could come good he’s allowed to improve but current odds are based on fact, he’s not showing form that puts him in with a big chance

[nortonscoin200]

Probably going to be Billy-no--mates on this one but I just feel it's cracking each way value.

Beacon Edge at 80-1 with B365 for the Champion Hurdle.

Ok stop sniggering, here's the case.

He's run just 6 times over hurdles for Noel Meade - winning 3 - and the most he's been beaten in his three defeats is 3/4 of a length.

That was by Honeysuckle (rec 7lbs) in the Hatton's Grace over 2m 4f before Christmas. Beacon Edge gave her a real race but ended up third after being overtaken by fast finishing Ronald Pump close home.

In his 2 defeats last season he was beaten a nose by Jason The Militant after making a mess of the final flight and was then chinned by Cedarwood Road.

This season he won two minor races before the Hatton's Grace - beating Minella Melody as easily as Concertista managed in MM's two subsequent starts.

In his first season with Meade, Beacon Road was a fast finishing 4th in a 47k Leopardstown bumper - just over three lengths behind Envoi Allen who was all out to win.

Then at the Punchestown Festival he was a 1 3/4 length third in a 51k bumper won by Colreevy with Abacadabras second, 3/4 of a length ahead of Beacon Edge.

He's one of only two Gigginstown horses entered in the Champion Hurdle - the other being Abacadabras - so they will probably want to run him.

Both are among nine entries in the Irish Champion Hurdle next month..

Last season the horses who finished 2nd, 3rd and 5th in the Champion Hurdle (Sharjah, Darver Star and Petit Mouchoir) all ran in the Irish version.

Beacon Edge also has an entry in the Stayers Hurdle - one of 5 for Gigginstown - and a lot of horses have gone from the Hatton's Grace to the Stayers.

Since 2000 28 have tried - including 10 who went off at single figures - but none of them have won the Stayers.

In the last decade only four horses from the Hatton's Grace have gone on to contest the Champion Hurdle. Hurricane Fly and Jezki won, Mick Jazz came third at 25-1 and Apple's Jade bombed.

I reckon a truly run Champion Hurdle with a stiff uphill finish is going to suit Beacon Edge a treat.

He's a battler and his best trip is probably 2m 2f so I don't think he'd be flagging up the hill.

PP make Honeysuckle a 7-1 shot with a run in the Champion Hurdle but over 2 miles at Cheltenham I really don't think there would be much between her and Beacon Edge.

PP go 25-1 Jason The Militant in the CH with a run so does his level of improvement this season make Beacon Edge an 80-1 shot with cash out. I don't think so.

Let's face it, you can pick holes in most of the horses at the head of the Champion Hurdle market. They are all beatable and it wouldn't be a huge shock if an outsider made the frame at the very least.

There are down-sides to Beacon Edge's chances - he had a bout of colic over Xmas, has never run at Cheltenham and I know Noel Meade is not everyone's favourite trainer.

But he's a lightly raced 7-year-old - they have won 4 of the last 10 CHs - and if he ends up here I think it'll be the right call.

And imo it now looks as though this is the route they're hoping to take. I'm not expecting him to win at Leopardstown - reckon Cheltenham will suit him much better - but I'd be surprised if he's too far away.

Anyhow, I like backing 80-1 shots and at that price he's a pretty classy customer.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Good write up, going to take a look, Cheers Norton’s

[Spectre]

That's a really good synopsis NC200. There are two reasons that I won't back him though. Firstly I believe he wants further to be seen at this very best, and I also believe that Noel Meade thinks so too. NRNB solves that problem though.

The second and more pertinenet reason is he has been recovering from a bout of colic. Some horses recover sooner than others and he could be back for March given the timing, but they lose weight and then lose fitness, and both diet and feed has to be changed, so I'd be concerned about any chance he's have in an open Grade 1. He will have been a very sick horse, and whilst he has the entries, I think there's has to be a reasonable chance he doesn't take them up, and even if he does I'd be surprised if he could find the stone or more improvement needed off the back of it.

https://www.irishracing.com/news?headline=Beacon-Edge-recovering-from-colic&prid=214738

[charlie]

nortonscoin200 cracking case for an 80/1 shot. Nobody on here will ever knock a selection at that price with that much thought behind it.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Absolutely Charlie, Spectre makes good valid points though.
I dont mind chucking a small amount at an 80/1 shot, just in case.

[DenmanSacre]

The form lines with Envoi Allen in the Royal Bond and Shishkin in the Supreme are the 2 best bits of form in my book. The 2 best horses in training.

Seen this mentioned a few times and I can't see how anyone thinks both Shishkin and Envoi Allen are currently the 2 best horses in training. Potentially, yes, but currently no. They are novices and don't have the form in the book to be stated as the best horses in training. Their form doesn't come near CPS, Min, ABP etc.

[nortonscoin200]

That's a really good synopsis NC200. There are two reasons that I won't back him though. Firstly I believe he wants further to be seen at this very best, and I also believe that Noel Meade thinks so too. NRNB solves that problem though.

The second and more pertinenet reason is he has been recovering from a bout of colic. Some horses recover sooner than others and he could be back for March given the timing, but they lose weight and then lose fitness, and both diet and feed has to be changed, so I'd be concerned about any chance he's have in an open Grade 1. He will have been a very sick horse, and whilst he has the entries, I think there's has to be a reasonable chance he doesn't take them up, and even if he does I'd be surprised if he could find the stone or more improvement needed off the back of it.

https://www.irishracing.com/news?hea...ic&prid=214738

Take your point Spectre, yes the effects of the colic are a worry. I have no inside knowledge at all.

But it does remind me a bit of the year Norton's Coin won the Gold Cup.

He was a sick horse in February and owner-trainer Sirrell Griffiths didn't enter him in any of the Cheltenham handicaps - he missed the deadline because he didn't think he'd have him fit in time.

But Sirrell had already entered him in the Gold Cup because it was an early closer and the decision to go for the big one was in effect made for him.

It wasn't colic with Norton's Coin - more a bug if I remember right.

But I'm hoping either Beacon Edge makes a similar recovery or the Bet365 cash-out enables me to escape in time.

I was hoping Marie's Rock was going to be the springer in the market - as I believe were you - but that's looking unlikely now so this is my Plan B and it's not going to break the bank.

[qzy]

I was hoping Marie's Rock was going to be the springer in the market - as I believe were you - but that's looking unlikely now so this is my Plan B and it's not going to break the bank.

Not ruled out by any means yet!

[Lobos]

Marie's Rock being aimed at Betfair Hurdle.

[Lobos]

Beuveur Dair will be rerouted to contenders Hurdle if Haydock off as expected.