Champion Hurdle 2021

[Quevega]

The best reason to wait is other firms going NRNB before Dublin.
They may or may not go a bit higher than 7.
Closer to dublin and the declaration though, means it's less likely.

[Thethinker87]

Running at Haydock in Champion Hurdle trial in 2 weeks time.

Thanks Lobos will keep an eye out for this!!

[Istabraq]

She would go 7/2 or shorter if she won the Irish Champion I reckon.
She's unbeaten and popular.

Hypothetical question for you Q, how would you price Benie in the current champion hurdle market, NRNB and without the insurance...

[charlie]

I'd say take a flier with the 20/1 to win both races and get her on board that way.

Thats not bad advice for a point!

[charlie]

Do you think she'll shorten drastically from that 7/1 should they decide to tackle the Champion Hurdle ?
9 weeks to go and an Irish champion hurdle in between she won last year and still swerved the weakest champion hurdle in memory, she'd have to win hard held to drop to say 4/1 and even then some would argue 4/1 in 9 weeks time is better value than 7/1 now.
It's the NRNB insurance that's swaying you (and others) I think and not her chances of winning the race...

I think Quevega is right and if she wins the ICH well then 7/2 or lower is likely.

A tactical angle I hadn't considered was Aspire Tower. HDB could try and kill two birds with one stone by sending AT off an absolute clip which would IMO give AT the best chance of winning, but would also in turn massively suit a horse like Honeysuckle who would despise a more sedate pace that ended up in a real sprint. Loads of ifs, buts and maybes, and I retain it's unlikely, but I am sure that tactical thought process will more than cross their minds.

[charlie]

For someone like yourself, who thinks she won't come here....unless she blows them away..... surely NRNB 7/1 is worth it for you?


If she does what you don't think, and smashes them, you'd have to re-assess her and no doubt you'd have her shorter, maybe half the price or less?

I'm of the opinion she could win and this season as they've already won the Mares it's possible they do throw her in to the CH this time, which is stopping me.

• I only want Honeysuckle onside if she's won the Irish Champion Hurdle, really well

I suppose, I would have the option to cash out.... is she likely to go off 7/1 or bigger under any circumstances, that's the question? ... and then, would you want her onside at 6/1 and 5/1 ?

I think I'll probably end up taking that or 20/1 to win both the ICH & CH. I kinda hate myself for doing it, and can't really explain why!

You are right, a demolition job and I can kiss 7/1 NRNB goodbye. As a NRNB proposition I'd be a fool to dismiss it, but I feel like I'm cheating on myself by admitting it hahaha

[Quevega]

Hypothetical question for you Q, how would you price Benie in the current champion hurdle market, NRNB and without the insurance...

10/12-1 or thereabouts.

[Istabraq]

10/12-1 or thereabouts.

Is that NRNB ?

[Quevega]

Is that NRNB ?

Yeah.
PP have her at 16-1 though.
But I'm not going down that road this year.
Hard to price without as if they didn't go last year then they aren't this year. So name your price.

[Kevloaf]

I think I'll probably end up taking that or 20/1 to win both the ICH & CH. I kinda hate myself for doing it, and can't really explain why!

You are right, a demolition job and I can kiss 7/1 NRNB goodbye. As a NRNB proposition I'd be a fool to dismiss it, but I feel like I'm cheating on myself by admitting it hahaha

The 20/1 to win both is worse, you give youself 2 chances to lose?

What you should do, is stick with your gut telling you she won't be good enough to beat Epatante even if he won the Irish Champion Hurdle well.

[Quevega]

The 20/1 to win both is worse, you give youself 2 chances to lose?

What you should do, is stick with your gut telling you she won't be good enough to beat Epatante even if he won the Irish Champion Hurdle well.

I fancy Honeysuckle to win in Ireland strongly.
So if the 20-1 is available after decs I'd do the special. to small stakes, as a saver for the champion hurdle.

Hope she wins, then back Epatante against her on the big one, at a likely better price.

[charlie]

The 20/1 to win both is worse, you give youself 2 chances to lose?

What you should do, is stick with your gut telling you she won't be good enough to beat Epatante even if he won the Irish Champion Hurdle well.

Wise words. Will leave for now and if I'm wrong I'm wrong. In fact fuck it, Honeysuckle will win the ICH in 'unimpressive' fashion and connections will make the same decision to go mares. Nothing to see here

In other news, do we know if Saldier is fit and well post Matheson? I haven't seen any reports? 25/1 is still a very good EW price IMO, but only if health and wellbeing reports are positive because obviously he has been fragile.

[Kevloaf]

I fancy Honeysuckle to win in Ireland strongly.
So if the 20-1 is available after decs I'd do the special. to small stakes, as a saver for the champion hurdle.

Hope she wins, then back Epatante against her on the big one, at a likely better price.

Yep fair enough, if you fancy her to win the ICH easily the 20/1 becomes more appealing.

I have no rush to make a decision on it as it's a month away.

People in such a rush to nail their colours to the mast

[nortonscoin200]

I just wonder if we're in for a surprise and Concertista will run in the Champion Hurdle.

Willie's had to watch Hendo win three of the last four Champion Hurdles after the Irish maestro won four of the previous six.

That must leave Willie with a bit of an itch.

Imagine him sitting in his favourite armchair by a log fire pondering the Champion Hurdle nine weeks today.

Willie sighs and mutters: "Who the devil am I going to send into battle this time to get my crown back?

"Sharjah's booked his spot - second last year, great performance last time out at Leopardstown. He must have a solid chance. But he is eight and Epatante was too good for him last year.

"Saldier will take his chance, he's lightly raced and could run a big race but we'd be happy with a place if I'm honest.

"The team's ok but I'm probably a bit light - which is a shame because Epatante has shown her first signs of weakness and the rest of them look distinctly average.

"Hmm, what about Concertista?

"She's shown at two successive Festivals that she performs well on the track over 2m 1f.

"She's clearly improved this season and is possibly the best two mile hurdler in the yard.

"Even though she won over 2m 4f at Leopardstown last time - she doesn't look to me like a mare who will necessarily benefit from the Mares Hurdle trip at a stiffer track like Cheltenham.

"Being held up just off the pace in an end-to-end gallop in the Champion would probably suit her just fine with the uphill finish.

"She'd certainly have a great chance of beating the boys with her 7lbs allowance and she's probably my best chance of turning over Epatante.

"That would leave Benie to slot in nicely in the Mares Hurdle and get her revenge on Honeysuckle. I'd enjoy that. And what with the injury and long lay-off it would be a bit risky going for the Mares Chase.

"So yes, let's keep it simple with Benie. I like that.

"And that gives Colreevy a clear run at the Mares Chase.

"Brilliant, all sorted - thank God for that. Hey Patrick: Open that bottle of Chablis would you.I've got something to tell you."

Epatante has posted an RPR higher than 150 in four of her 8 hurdle races.

Her last four runs (latest on right) have been 158,163,154, 155.

Concertista has posted an RPR above 150 on 2 of her 7 hurdle runs.

Her last two runs produced an RPR of 151, 152.

I haven't backed Concertista or Colreevy for Cheltenham and I'm on Benie for the Mares Chase.

But visually Concertista has looked very good this season and I don't think she's got too much to find with Epatante on current form.

Will Willie want to pass up possibly his best chance of winning the Champion Hurdle by running her in the Mares Hurdle at a trip which could stretch her stamina to the limit round Cheltenham?

Specially as it would simplify the Sound of Music-like poser "How do you solve a problem like Benie?"

I see PP make Concertista joint fifth favourite at 10-1 in their NRNB Champion Hurdle market - behind Epatante, Sharjah, Silver Streak and Honeysuckle.

No way can I see Honeysuckle running in the Champion Hurdle - surely she will defend her crown.Nothing has changed from last year.

And if the other four turned up I don't think the 10-1 Concertista would last very long.

I'd make her joint second favourite with Sharjah.

[Kevloaf]

I hope all your cases are made by creating faux soliloquies from now on

FWIW, I agree, I had 5 pts e/w on her at 10/1 NRNB for a lot of the reasons above.... she either doesn't run, or goes off half the price as a genuine 2nd fav?