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Originally posted by Rhinestone_Cowboy
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Not barks presumably?
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Any of the NRNB prices tempting anyone?
Honeysuckle 7/1
Concertista 10/1
Buveur D'air 12/1
Sceau Royal 33/1
Cilaos Emery 40/1
Burning Victory 40/1
Saldier 16/1
Those are the ones with some sort of question mark about turning up that I can see.
Any of these likely to be dramatically shorter if they did show up?Comment
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Saldier is the only one I'd be interested in. WPM said he needed the run and he it looked like he did. We know he is capable of better than that.Comment
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Concertista @10s surely decent?Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
I am a big fan of Cilaos Emery but you'd have to feel he's a shadow of that horse that should have won the ArkleComment
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Worth risking the 25/1 for him though, unless worried about the County Hurdle?Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post
Yeha it could be, if she's going for the Irish Champion Hurdle..... if she didn't win that, surely 0% chance they run her - if she does, she wouldn't be 10/1?Originally posted by Altior View Post
To make it worthwhile though I'd want quite a chunky stake on..... do I want to tie up 5 pts e/w now, probably not?
I thought Cilaos Emery was mildly interesting at 40/1 given he went off 7/1 last season, however, he was a well beaten 4th with no real reason to assume he'd reverse the form.Comment
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He's a fragile beast so I wouldn't be against taking a shorter price.Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
That said, I'm not backing any of them
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Taken chance on Buveur D’Air, will either go there witha serious chance or be retired by March in my opinion...Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostComment
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Concertista for me ... if she wins the Irish hurdle then I would think she’s goes and would be shorter. Owners love CH runners. If she doesn’t go or loses then I doubt she will come hereOriginally posted by Kevloaf View PostComment
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Colreevy aside the form of her novice hurdle win doesn't look to amount to much and she has been tried over 20f or thereabouts several times, I'm not convinced she'd have the pace for a champion hurdle.Originally posted by Geegees View Post
That said I don't remember Munir/Suede having any genuine champion hurdle horses so you may well be right they'll want her heading there, but I'd assume Mullins is in charge....Comment
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Yeah agree on the form not being rock solid and definitely agree on the owners position but we all know Willie will place them in the race he thinks they will win so will be interesting to see on the power play if concertista does win the Irish hurdleComment
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Absolutely. I am going to take that now. The bold is such an important point (often over looked) and she remains their only entry.Originally posted by Geegees View PostComment
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Would the yard send Sharjah there as their best hope of a victory? They reverted Cilaos Emery to hurdles last season so they had a ‘better’ hope in the race than Sharjah and he’d won the Christmas grade 1 that year too. It’s hard to guess how probable it is with any sort of confidence but I’d certainly think there is some credible chance that concertista line up here, even if it’s probably odds-against by a fair margin at the moment.
Not sure the Irish champion hurdle will answer as many questions as leave us with more either; if she wins there she will have beaten honeysuckle, her biggest threat in a potential mares hurdle clash. Why go to the champion hurdle to face the unknown of Epatante etc when you’ve already had the better of the only credible opponent in the other race once?Comment
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Cilaos Emery reverted as the owners thought there was a better chance of picking up prize money in the CH than the Champion Chase when the CC looked red hot at one stage and after he had fallen at Lep. They took the chance at Gowran to pick up the supplement fee for him.Originally posted by ToniC View Post
Concertista best runs have all come at distances over 2 miles cant see them dropping her back to be honest.Comment
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Originally posted by Geegees View PostIn the Champion Hurdle in the last 5 years (probably not worth going back further as that was around the time they came onto the scene) they've had 6 runners (age in brackets)Originally posted by charlie View Post
2020 - 2 - Fusil Raffles (5) & Call Me Lord (7)
2019 - 0
2018 - 0
2017 - 2 - Footpad (5) & Sceau Royal (5)
2016 - 2 - Top Notch (5) & Peace and Co (5)
Just out of interest in the same period, the Stayers at 5 runners
2020 - 1 - L'ami Serge (10)
2019 - 2 - Wholestone (8) & Top Notch (8)
2018- 2 - Wholestone (7) & L'ami Serge (8)
2017 - 0
2016 - 0
It's of course only my interpretation but my take on their stance in the race as that is the natural festival race for their 5 year old horses following the Triumph hurdle the year prior. With 5 of their 6 runners fitting this profile. None have taken in the race for a second attempt (FR excluded)
The CH will always have a pull for many owners. It's THE Championship hurdle race at the festival. But i'm not sure their history of runners points to them re-routing the likely target of Concertista myself by any means. They've used the race for their 5 year olds before they go chasing the following season. There's no history of them forcing a horse into the race over another?
Of course she may well run in the Irish Champion Hurdle at the DRF and force her way into the race from there, but for now I see it as very unlikely that the owners will be pushing for her to come here. And for all the Irish 2m division has been a bit of a mess, Mullins could still go into the race with Sharjah, Saint Roi and Saldier. He's not light in the race and probably has the strongest hand to play if all 3 make it.
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