Champion Hurdle 2021

[charlie]

Concertista for here anyone? Division is a bit of a mess isn't it

I am quietly hoping so. The Xmas period did more to enhance her chances than not, IMO. I think they know what they have in Sharjah, but Saint Roi hasn't lived up to his reputation and Willie doesn't have a clear stand out CH contender yet. Epatante was beat and as you say, division looks a bit of a mess.

I am a firm believer that WPM always goes for the easiest option, I say it time and time again. He goes for the race at Cheltenham he thinks he will most likely win. On that basis the mares remains more likely, but I have massive respect for Honeysuckle over 2m4f and think beating her over that trip could prove just as difficult as beating what we've seen of the champion contenders.

The interesting part of this equation IMO is the owners. Simor Munir & Isaac Souede love having Champion Hurdle runners. They are not afraid to run 1, 2 and sometimes even 3, often at longer odds. It's a race they target and Concertista remains their only entry. That might not be overly significant, but I don't think it can be ignored either.

She's blue across the board on this (low as 12), although remains 20's in places. I'll be keeping an eye out for NRNB prices when they come out that's for sure.

[Kautothegreat8]

I'd say theres defo something up in the Elliott yard.
No way is Abacadabras that bad.

[Al Boum Photo]

I am quietly hoping so. The Xmas period did more to enhance her chances than not, IMO. I think they know what they have in Sharjah, but Saint Roi hasn't lived up to his reputation and Willie doesn't have a clear stand out CH contender yet. Epatante was beat and as you say, division looks a bit of a mess.

I am a firm believer that WPM always goes for the easiest option, I say it time and time again. He goes for the race at Cheltenham he thinks he will most likely win. On that basis the mares remains more likely, but I have massive respect for Honeysuckle over 2m4f and think beating her over that trip could prove just as difficult as beating what we've seen of the champion contenders.

The interesting part of this equation IMO is the owners. Simor Munir & Isaac Souede love having Champion Hurdle runners. They are not afraid to run 1, 2 and sometimes even 3, often at longer odds. It's a race they target and Concertista remains their only entry. That might not be overly significant, but I don't think it can be ignored either.

She's blue across the board on this (low as 12), although remains 20's in places. I'll be keeping an eye out for NRNB prices when they come out that's for sure.

Mullins has said she will go to the DRF next. The only suitable race there is the Irish Champion Hurdle so her Cheltenham target will probably depend on that race.

[charlie]

Mullins has said she will go to the DRF next. The only suitable race there is the Irish Champion Hurdle so her Cheltenham target will probably depend on that race.

Thanks ABP, I didn't know that. What a race that could be

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

For me the Champion Hurdle is a big leave alone race now. Funnily enough it was the main race I targeted this year with 3 main darts: Aba (cashed for loss 27% loss) though still have loads of freebies, Saint Roi and Epatante. The fav still has a chance and wouldn’t write the other two off just yet with their course form but there look to be a fair few in with chances now and looks to be the sort of field you could end up trying to chase your tail in and cover a few more and still get chinned by the 20/1 shot you didn’t cover.

[Kevloaf]

I'd say theres defo something up in the Elliott yard.
No way is Abacadabras that bad.

Might be well handicapped

[Kevloaf]

Mullins has said she will go to the DRF next. The only suitable race there is the Irish Champion Hurdle so her Cheltenham target will probably depend on that race.

He did also say her trip is 2m4f and the Mares Hurdle the target.

Of course, winning the Irish Champion may well change their mind! Should do infact!

[Kautothegreat8]

Might be well handicapped

Not even a massive fan of the horse but 14/1 now seems a very good price considering he goes well round Cheltenham.

That said, I never seem to do well in this race so maybe I'm just being silly

[Quevega]

The three I have not got covered that would slightly concern me in the Champion hurdle (I'll be having a good go on Epatante I think)

are
Concertista
Honeysuckle
Abacadabras

However, I've mulled it over and I don't rate Abacadabra's and he may be another Melon.
I think he could still run a big race in the Champion, and at 16-1 might be the best time to back him.
But I think he'll get fucking battered again in Dublin, or at least well beat.
So I'll wait and may cover him NRNB at some point after that.

The Mares feels like Deja Vu.
And annoyingly they'll probably both end up in the mares race again.
However, I do think that if Willie does run Concertista in Dublin, then both mares may be worth a special, or obviously a NRNB clever cross double of some sort. Although I got fed up with the permutations last season so may just leave them both alone.

[jono]

Have to say I thought I had the race pretty sewn up in the early parts of the season, and going into Christmas. The joys of antepost punting...

Epatante
Abacadabras
Saint Roi
Saldier as the outsider

The last week has blown that out the water.
Still all in with a chance, but they've taken some mighty blows. With Saint Roi being the most disappointing today for me, I can't really make much sense of his run today.

On Sharjah.
8/1 is probably a fair price actually for him after today, beating all of the Irish and Epatantes flop.
Now I have no issue reacting to a result like this where the race throws up a winner I haven't covered. A Plus Tard in the Savills Chase and Gold Cup a prime example.
But I still have my doubts about Sharjah winning a Champion Hurdle.
He's won todays race 3 times now. Yet in that 3 year span he hasn't won another race since (4 hurdle runs and another 2 flat runs).
Of course it's quite harsh as you're talking 2 of those 4 hurdle runs being the CH where he was 2nd and BD. But he's just too in and out for me.
And the evidence is too limited for me to say he improves at Cheltenham for it to be an advantage.

I think i'm going to bury my head in the sand in regards to this race, forget about it for a while and come back in February

[Saxon Warrior]

Silver Streak’s complete revolution in tactics to lead rather than hang around the back of the field definitely put him further up the “possibles” list for this race.

He beat Ballyandy by around 10lb more than normal, which I am taking as a potential level of improvement he could have at his disposal in the Champion, c/w previous attempts.

I didn’t think I would see him as one of the top prospects for the race, but after this weeks races, I do now.

I wouldn’t write off horses that perform well at Cheltenham, so Saint Roi could still flip the form given a two into the race at a strong pace.

Add in Aspire Tower, Sharjah and Epatante and it’s got an open look to it, and no other decent 2-Miler is going to shirk having a crack at it either.

[Bigfish]

If Aspire Tower is considered then surely so too should Goshen be included. Ive read reports that AT underperformed by 4-5L in the Triumph hd. If this is the case then Goshen still beats him by 6L + is my best guess.

[Kevloaf]

At 25/1, I can see why Goshen would be interesting now, as Aspire Tower keeps running well. There are things you have to forgive with Goshen, mainly his form since that Triumph stumble ... but at 25/1 he's fair enough when everything else has also fumbled along the way so far.


Aspire Tower you can also argue has just improved more though this season to be a decent each way play in the race.


There isn't a horse in the market at the moment that you can back without having to forgive something.

[Kautothegreat8]

At 25/1, I can see why Goshen would be interesting now, as Aspire Tower keeps running well. There are things you have to forgive with Goshen, mainly his form since that Triumph stumble ... but at 25/1 he's fair enough when everything else has also fumbled along the way so far.


Aspire Tower you can also argue has just improved more though this season to be a decent each way play in the race.


There isn't a horse in the market at the moment that you can back without having to forgive something.

I would be waiting until Goshen is a confirmed runner in the contenders before having a bet.

Once confirmed then take a chance and hope he bolts up.

[jono]

The issue I have with Goshen (still) is we're having to still go back to March to warrant his chances. It's festival form so has to be marked up but he's had 3 runs where he has shown nothing of note. As much as you can dismiss the flat runs he still showed no glimpse of promise there for me. He looks a completely different horse. And we have this with Juveniles the subsequent year where the level of progression varies so often. It's the reason i'm not drawing too many lines between Goshen and what Aspire Tower has been doing. The rate of progression / regression for the 4 year olds can be wild with a summer gone and halfway through the following season. I've also seen mentions of Allmankind boosting the form though i'd be more inclined to use his seasonal debut defeat at Cheltenham and being beaten by Botox Has by 7L as more of a significant sign of the form, not what has happened with a switch to fences.

But at 25's and how the market has been going...nothing would surprise me..
And this sums the race up perfectly so

There isn't a horse in the market at the moment that you can back without having to forgive something.

Add in 2 high class mares who could line up in the Irish champion hurdle just to muddy the waters and potentially make the race even more complex.