Gordon Elliott 2020 Handicap Performances

[riccirich]

Sutton place coral cup if they can get him to the track, and fighter Allen maybe? Solely because of his relation to envoi and the fact they gave him his first run in a fairly good race

[Fatjockey69]

Darling Daughter.
Those of us at the Monday Cheltenham Town FV preview evening will know this one is well thought of and they were expecting a decent run in the bumper, didn’t materialise so may well be one for the County/M Pipe next year...

What was said about her at the preview night of what you can remember? Great night there with davy been to it many of times it’s like a treat on Cheltenham eve.

[Istabraq]

What was said about her at the preview night of what you can remember? Great night there with davy been to it many of times it’s like a treat on Cheltenham eve.

Not sure FJ69 but think it was Davy Russell who talked about the horse, he seemed quite animated when talking about the horse I think.
Big Chang does that preview too, any recollection BC ?

[BigChaang]

I don't remember them talking about Darling Daughter , but i remember .
when she won at Leopardstown on 2nd feb.
hosed up !,, and i backed G.E's other runner !.

[nortonscoin200]

Here's Gordon"s handicap race-by-race record at the festival over the last 5 years:

Ultima: 5 runners, 0 wins, 1 placed, 4 unplaced

Close B: 6 runners, 0 wins, 2 placed, 4 unplaced

Coral : 11 runners, 1 win, 3 placed, 7 unplaced

Fred W: 14 runners, 2 wins, 4 placed, 8 unplaced

Pertm: 9 runners, 3 wins, 6 placed, 0 unplaced

Plate: 4 runners, 1 win, 1 place, 2 unplaced

Kim Muir: 7 runners, 2 wins, 1 placed, 4 unplaced

County: 9 runners, 0 wins, 0 placed, 9 unplaced

Grand A: 4 runners, 1 win, 1 placed, 2 unplaced

Martin P: 17 runners, 2 wins, 5 placed, 10 unplaced

[Fatjockey69]

That pertemps records of 9 runners, 3 winners and 6 places is crazy. He’s the king of getting them qualified

[The King Pimm]

Excellent work Norton’s, thank you. Gordon Elliot has a really good record in the Fred Winter, Pertemps, Plate and Martin Pipe. Definitely going to be backing all his runners in those races next festival.

[nortonscoin200]

I wonder if Commander of Fleet will be back next season - and how high or low they will fly with him.

Currently rated 149 over hurdles, he'd be a weapon off likely top weight in the Pertemps if they decided to ease him back quietly.

He'd also take some beating in the NH Chase or the KM if they decided to send him chasing.

Course, they could go for the Stayers Hurdle or the RSA if they feel he is still bound for the top.

Just read Gordon's comments before he pulled up at Punchestown a year ago and he obviously rated the horse very highly.

He was only a five-year-old when he went down to Minello Indo by 2 lengths in the AB last year. CoF beat Allaho by 7 lengths and Lisnagar Oscar by almost 14lengths.

I don't know what the injury was. The race report said he was found to be lame behind.

Hills go 25-1 twar which would be reasonable value if you knew he was likely to be fully fit for next season.

The previous year at the Punchestown Festival he won the 50k bumper on his racecourse debut -giving our old friend Column of Fire 5lbs and an 8-length beating.

[nortonscoin200]

Here's Willie's Festival handicap record over the last 5 years:

2016

Runners: 15
Wins. 0
Place (2-5) 3
Unplaced. 12

Stake 1ew: 30
Return: 13.20
Loss: 16.80. (-56%)

Stake 1win: 15
Return: 0
Loss: 15. (-100%)

2017

Runner: 9
Wins: 1
Placed: 0
Unplaced. 8

Stake 1 ew: 18
returns: 26
Profit: 8 (+44.4%)

Stake 1win: 9
Returns: 21
Profit: 12. (+133.3%)

2018

Runners: 15
Wins: 1
Placed: 2
Unplaced: 12

Stake 1ew: 30
Return: 33.40
Profit: 3.40. (+11.3%)

Stake 1 win: 15
Return: 21
Profit: 6. (+40%)

2019

Runners: 16
Wins: 0
Placed: 3
Unplaced: 13

Stake 1ew: 32
Return: 11.30
Loss: 21.70. (-67.8%)

Stake 1 win: 16
Return: 0
Loss: 16. (-100%)

2020

Runners: 18
Wins: 1
Placed: 3
Unplaced 14

Stake 1ew: 36
Return: 24.40
Loss: 11.60. (-32.2%)

Stake 1 win: 18
Return: 6.5
Loss: 11.5. (-63.8%)

Overall record:

Runners: 73
Wins: 3 (4.1%)
Placed: 11 (15%)
Unplaced: 59. (80.8%)

Race by race breakdown over last 5 years:

Ultima: Runners 1, wins 0, placed 0, unplaced 1
Close B: Runners. 3, wins 0, placed 0, unplaced 3
Coral: Runners. 24, wins 1, placed 2, unplaced. 21
Fred W: Runners. 3, wins 0, placed 1, unplaced 2
Pertemps: Runners 1, wins 0, placed 0, unplaced 1
Brown: Runners 5, wins 0, placed 1, unplaced 4
Kim Muir: Runners 3, wins 0, placed 0, unplaced 3
County: Runners. 18, wins 2, placed 5, unplaced 11
Martin P: Runners 12, wins 0, placed 2, unplaced 10
Grand An:Runners 3, wins 0, placed 0, unplaced 3

As Kev pointed out, using Charlie's Willie handicap stats for 2008-18, the only handicaps Mullins targets at the Festival are the County, the Coral and to a numerically smaller extent the Pipe.

Backing Willie's runners blindly at SP in the County over the last 5 years would have made a profit:

Stake 1ew: 36
Return: 50.80
Profit: 14.80 (+41.1%)

Stake 1 win: 18
Return: 27.50
Profit: 9.50. (+52.7%)


Backing Willie blindly at sp win or each way in any other handicap would have made a loss.

Here is the Coral outcome"

Stake 1ew: 48
Return: 35.20
Loss: 12.80. (-26.6%)

Stake win 1: 24
Return: 21
Loss: 3 (-12.5%)


Gordon has only sent out 13 more runners than Willie over the last five years:


Runners: 86
Wins: 12 (13.9%)
Placed: 24 (27.9%)
Unplaced. 50 (58%)

[Lobos]

Gordon Elliott 2020 Handicap Performances

Whilst re-watching this years festival race-by-race and putting together a little summary for each race, I found myself repeating “Gordon Elliott” over and over again. No real surprise to anyone as he’s been leading trainer there twice (2017 & 2018) and was beaten on countback this year with 7 winners.

That said, I found myself thinking that ‘Gordon Elliot is the place to start for every handicap’ which is a line I found myself coming back to on plenty of occasions!

It's always good to have some facts backing up such broad sweeping statements....

In the table below I’ve put together all 10 handicap races and worked put in all of his finishing positions (1^st to 5^th, then unplaced). I decided to include 5^th as most bookies offer it in the handicaps and I thought that was fair enough.





The above data tells us:


In total he had 23 runners, of these:

Winners = 17.5%
Placed = 39 %

Unplaced = 43.5%

To work out how profitable that was though we need to include the prices. I used Starting Price for these, for obvious reasons.

To a £1 each way, level stake we have the following results:

Total stake e/w	£46.00
Total Return	£82.02
Profit/Loss	+£36.02

This year, backing Gordon Elliott blindly, each way, would have given you a 78% return on your investment.


Interestingly, Win Only would have been £23.00 staked and a return of £34.00 which is a worse return.



The above is only 1 years data, and drawing too much from it would be foolish, but however you look at it, it's very impressive!

We obviously had Column Of Fire who would surely have improved the results if he'd stood up, but that's quite a selective way to look at it as anything can and does happen.


The strike rates for the Grand Annual, Pertemps and Kim Muir are at 100% which is ridiculous, and the Boodles is pretty incredible too.



‘Gordon Elliot is the place to start for every handicap?’

Based on the above, in 2021, he will be for me

Think this needs to be brought up again. Super study and incredible stats. Am I right in saying from above Gord had 23 runners across all Handicaps and had 4 winners and 13 placed!!!???? I've had a bottle of white in the garden so I could be wrong. Even so, my mate and me will now be concentrating all our Handicap cross doubles on GE's horses. Nice.

[nortonscoin200]

Over the last 5 years Gordon's had 86 runners in the Festival handicaps - 36 were placed and 50 were unplaced.

The 36 placed horses included 12 winers.

That works out at a 13.95% strike rate for winners/runners in Festival handicaps - just under 7-1.

[Lobos]

Over the last 5 years Gordon's had 86 runners in the Festival handicaps - 36 were placed and 50 were unplaced.

The 36 placed horses included 12 winers.

That works out at a 13.95% strike rate for winners/runners in Festival handicaps - just under 7-1.

Wow, just wow. Around 50% placed. Mental.

[Kevloaf]

Think this needs to be brought up again. Super study and incredible stats. Am I right in saying from above Gord had 23 runners across all Handicaps and had 4 winners and 13 placed!!!???? I've had a bottle of white in the garden so I could be wrong. Even so, my mate and me will now be concentrating all our Handicap cross doubles on GE's horses. Nice.

It is an angle that I will make sure I'm on top of when the timing is right, and NC200 is gonna do my heavy lifting

[Lobos]

It is an angle that I will make sure I'm on top of when the timing is right, and NC200 is gonna do my heavy lifting

I'll just wait until final decs and back all his handicap horses blind. Rude not to !

[Outlaw]

Just seen Percy has gone to Gordy, a plot awaits ....