Gordon Elliott 2020 Handicap Performances

[nortonscoin200]

Here are Gordon's Festival handicap stats for 2016-19:

(all returns are to a £1ew bet 1/5th odds 1-5 at sp)

2019

Runners: 22
Wins: 1
Placed 2-5: 5
Unplaced. 16

Stakes: 44
Return: 28.60
Loss: 15.40. (-35%)

Win only

Stakes: 22
Return: 5
Loss: 17 (-77%)


2018:

Runners: 17
Wins: 4
Placed: 4
Unplaced: 9

Stakes: 34
Return: 85
Profit: 51 (+150%)

Win only

Stakes: 17
Return: 59
Profit: 42 (+247%)


2017

Runners: 15
Wins: 1
Placed: 4
Unplaced: 10

Stakes: 30
Return: 28.70
Loss: 1.30 (-4.3%)

Win only

Stakes: 15
Returns: 13
Loss: 2 (-13.3%)


2016

Runners: 9
Wins: 2
Placed: 2
Unplaced: 5

Stakes: 18
Returns: 30.6
Profit: 12.6 (+70%)

Win only

Stake: 9
Returns: 18.5
Profit: 9.5(+105.5%)


In Cheltenham Festival handicaps over the last 5 years Gordon has had:

Runners: 86
Wins: 12 (13.9%)
Placed: 24 (27.9%)
Unplaced. 50 (58%)

So it all stacks up over the last 5 years even when betting at SP prices which is no way to make a profit at the Festival.

[Kevloaf]

Thanks 200, saved me some time.


It'd be interesting to also know what prices were available NRNB, (potentially only to 1/4 and 4 places though) and how many non runners you'd have had backing every entry and if it's a feasilbe 'system'.

Might be a worthwhile exercise to a £1 stake for 2021.



Personally I wouldn't want to (and never will) do this as a 'back-it-blind system' going forward as I genuinly enjoy trying to crack handicaps, but Gordon Elliott's entries will just have to be the starting point... and then compare other horses I fancy to what he has. I doubt it'd ever stop me backing something I fancy.... but over the last 5 years I'd say the data backs it up.


Not that anybody would have doubted it

[Hardy Eustace]

Norton / Kev - outstanding work. Thank you both.

Mullins had (by his standards) a particularly quiet start to the season yet Gordon was firing in impressive winners early doors (champagne classic, coeur sublime - there are many others!) so I would have thought Mullins would have had the upper hand at Cheltenham and backed him accordingly but it was clearly luck rather than judgement as to me winning, nothing new there!!

Clearly Gordon has learnt from his mentor, which is just great.

But why can’t hendo, Willie match his level of form in handicaps? I accept Nicholls doesn’t have the ammo that he use to but hendo and willie do. I’m just going to enjoy watching Gordon at work and as Kev rightly says make him the start of all form studying for the handicaps.

[Kevloaf]

I think somebody touched on it earlier, that Gordon and the yard 'enjoy' the handicaps. I think because of the way Pipe operated, Elliott is a big fan of a plot / gamble etc.... whereas Willie Mullins is aiming for the graded races with the majority of his horses.

I don't think success in handicaps comes down to just how well you can improve or train a horse, there is a bit of an art to it, and Elliott is an artist.


There will always be exceptions though, and Willie has a profitable record in handicap hurdles doesn't he.... (the below is from Charlie's 2008 to 2018 data)

Races

Never sent a horse to the Ultima. 22 (20%) of his horses have run in the Close Brothers, Pertemps, Brown Advisory, Kim Muir and Grand Annual. He has never won those 6 races, or the Fred Winter and Cross Country.

He has sent 42 horses to 8/11 handicaps, all of which he has never won.

71 (63%) of all Willies runners go to the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle. 100% of all his handicap winners have come from these races.

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners in the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle from 2008-2018 would leave you up +£555

P Townend is his most successful handicap jockey having won twice and been third twice.

Average priced winner is 14/1. He has 1 winning favourite, 8 losing favourites.

Conclusion

The 2 things that surprised me were the number of handicappers he has sent to the festival (lower than I thought) and how clearly he targets specific races.

I thought 83% of Paul Nicholls winners coming from 4 races (Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle, Grand Annual) was a stand out stat, but 100% of Willie Mullins handicap winners over the last decade have come from the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle.

With an average SP of 14/1 you would be in the gravy backing his horses off level stakes in just these 3 races. I would be weary with the Coral Cup but his performance in the Martin Pipe & County Hurdle are exceptional.

[Saxon Warrior]

But is it really a matter of differing ability and ammunition, surely Willie’s team can match him in that respect? Is it not more down to the yard liking a plot and a punt in equal measure?

Maybe the Cheltenham handicap chases don’t have the allure or money for WPM compared with the Irish ones.
It’s never seemed to be on his agenda to race a lot of novice chasers in handicaps there.

[Fatjockey69]

As I bit of fun and guess work.. can anyone think of any potential horses Elliott May have in back of his mind for handicaps.
I think the bosses Oscar will stay over hurdles and be one he gets qualified for the pertemps.

[Hardy Eustace]

As I bit of fun and guess work.. can anyone think of any potential horses Elliott May have in back of his mind for handicaps.
I think the bosses Oscar will stay over hurdles and be one he gets qualified for the pertemps.

Bun Dundee was running a nice race in the plate until the race got messy. Escaria Ten could be a Kim Muir horse! Glenloe if he ever comes back. Black Tears still looks well treated. Imagine there will be quite a few!

[Istabraq]

I would have thought the ones who have run promising races already are ones to avoid as the handicapper will also have seen their abilities.
Of those that have run already the ones with Ps and duck eggs are probably the best place to start...

[Fatjockey69]

What bumper horses had Elliot had owned by giggenstown this year that will be novice hurdlers. Anyone got a list. As this could be the place to start when looking for the Martin pipe horse of Elliott’s as he always says he looks early season for the horses to target this race

[Istabraq]

What bumper horses had Elliot had owned by giggenstown this year that will be novice hurdlers. Anyone got a list. As this could be the place to start when looking for the Martin pipe horse of Elliott’s as he always says he looks early season for the horses to target this race

Darling Daughter.
Those of us at the Monday Cheltenham Town FV preview evening will know this one is well thought of and they were expecting a decent run in the bumper, didn’t materialise so may well be one for the County/M Pipe next year...

[ComplyOrDie]

Darling Daughter.
Those of us at the Monday Cheltenham Town FV preview evening will know this one is well thought of and they were expecting a decent run in the bumper, didn’t materialise so may well be one for the County/M Pipe next year...

Plenty of stamina for her, so would probably discount the county myself, so I'd go Martin Pipe personally

[Istabraq]

Plenty of stamina for her, so would probably discount the county myself, so I'd go Martin Pipe personally

Another M Pipe Giggs plot, the last 2 still give me nightmares....

[ComplyOrDie]

Another M Pipe Giggs plot, the last 2 still give me nightmares....

Haha, you're not alone on here with that

[archie]

There are probably at least a dozen candidates but 3 that may be worth keeping an eye on are
One Down
Fantasio D'Alene (form with Uhtred)
Favori De Champdou (form with Keskonrisk)

The last one had a PtP RPR of 89 so may have scope for jumps and a trip.

[ComplyOrDie]

There are probably at least a dozen candidates but 3 that may be worth keeping an eye on are
One Down
Fantasio D'Alene (form with Uhtred)
Favori De Champdou (form with Keskonrisk)

The last one had a PtP RPR of 89 so may have scope for jumps and a trip.

I had Favori added to the Bartlett market this week in hope he steps up.