Related Doubles (ideas)

[Many Clouds]

Please talk me out of a related double with Facile Vega in the ballymore..

I can't be the only one looking at his odds for that race and wondering if the switcharoo will happen

Bought my entry ticket to the Mullins bingo last night, done the Impaire Et Passe (S) Facile Vega (B) double, 142/1 on skybet on 109/1 on the sports book with a chance to cash out with any news, doesn't cost a lot at them odds for a bit of piece of mind and to potentially be well ahead of the game.

95% sure it's going to be a waste but for the 5% chance they do the old switcheroo if IEP smashes it tomorrow its worth a small stab. The only reason they switch is if IEP is so good over 2 miles and they think FV can win either race and in that scenario the double probably goes off at anywhere between 5 to 8/1 maybe shorter.

I have definitely wasted points on much more terrible bets in the past so I'm not too fussed to lose this couple of points on something which could potentially pay off handsomely and make me look a real smarty pants.

[Stormez]

Bought my entry ticket to the Mullins bingo last night, done the Impaire Et Passe (S) Facile Vega (B) double, 142/1 on skybet on 109/1 on the sports book with a chance to cash out with any news, doesn't cost a lot at them odds for a bit of piece of mind and to potentially be well ahead of the game.

95% sure it's going to be a waste but for the 5% chance they do the old switcheroo if IEP smashes it tomorrow its worth a small stab. The only reason they switch is if IEP is so good over 2 miles and they think FV can win either race and in that scenario the double probably goes off at anywhere between 5 to 8/1 maybe shorter.

I have definitely wasted points on much more terrible bets in the past so I'm not too fussed to lose this couple of points on something which could potentially pay off handsomely and make me look a real smarty pants.

I agree it’s worth a point or so to find, think I’ll join you. Stranger things have happened!

[CJW]

Please talk me out of a related double with Facile Vega in the ballymore..

I can't be the only one looking at his odds for that race and wondering if the switcharoo will happen

I just did it and I feel dirty...

[Benjy23]

I'm fairly certain he runs in (and wins) the Supreme. So it's not for me...

But the 12/1 for the Ballymore with Sky is them taking a very bold antepost position, and way out of line with most. Rate that from them, which I don't say often! I was going to say you'd be better playing on the exchanges but if you've got access to Sky then doubling one or two in the Supreme probably is your play.

I see Sky cut FV into 10s earlier.. Enough to put me off again

[Kevloaf]

I'm a bit surprised anyone thinks Facile Vega will go anywhere but the Supreme.

The problem with IEP being 'the' replacement is that he does have a retained jockey too, so they could easily both run in the Supreme.

therefore they're not related enough to make it appealing for me .... but low risk high reward so best of luck

[Istabraq]

I just did it and I feel dirty...

The market suggested the decision to go Supreme was made some time ago, personally I always thought FV would be better over further but the stupid short Supreme prices seemed to confirm I was once again wrong.
However, since then they seem keen on taking Gaelic Warrior to the Betfair Hurdle and if if he wins that it will presumably put him firmly in the Supreme picture which could easily push FV to the Ballymore, Mullins doesn't shy away from having multiple darts at a race so it's not impossible they both head to the Supreme but I guess much of that depends on how close they think Champ Kiely will go in a Ballymore.
Right now no-one knows, but your bet is not without hope...

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm a bit surprised anyone thinks Facile Vega will go anywhere but the Supreme.

The problem with IEP being 'the' replacement is that he does have a retained jockey too, so they could easily both run in the Supreme.

therefore they're not related enough to make it appealing for me .... but low risk high reward so best of luck

I think Dark Raven will play the Blue Lord roll in the Supreme for the double green tbh. Leaving IEP for the Ballymore. The only reason I say this is because Dark Raven only has the 2m entry at the DRF.

However, during the week I did play the IEP (Supreme)/Facile (Ballymore) double but only NRNB.

Willie splits his best two up, pretty much every time, doesn't he?

I'm obviously making the assumption IEP is up there as one of his top two, based on what I've watched/listened to, and of course his debut performance. Could be that Gaelic Warrior is the number two, but the Moscow Flyer declaration for IEP was also significant for me.

[Benjy23]

I'm a bit surprised anyone thinks Facile Vega will go anywhere but the Supreme.

The problem with IEP being 'the' replacement is that he does have a retained jockey too, so they could easily both run in the Supreme.

therefore they're not related enough to make it appealing for me .... but low risk high reward so best of luck

Potentially a lazy one this but was Sir Gerhard running in the Ballymore all that different? CPS didn't have a runner in the Supreme... I guess jockey wise they don't have a retained rider but Townend would still want to ride both, if IEP looked to have a real shot (he'd still get the choice on M&S owned Mullins trained as far as I'm aware).

[Lobos]

Can't believe we are back onto the Vega Ballymore possibility again but can see why with the IEP Moscow Flyer run and assumptions that both he and Vega are Willie's top two. No getting away from fact that over the years he has religiously split his best two and that his Moscow Flyer winners have mostly turned up in the Supreme. I also think that looking at the current potential Supreme crop that most are hold up horses with a telling finish so I don't see where the pace is coming from so Vega might have to make his own pace and take it on. He's well capable of that but it's still not ideal. Looking at the potential Ballymore runners there's no end of horses that are likely to want to be up there so Vega could get a tow into the race at a decent pace which may suit his style of running and indeed help his jumping. If IEP is super impressive in the MF and shows a proper turn of foot again will PT have a big say in wanting to ride them both as well? Vega's performance at the DRF may also have a significant bearing on where he ends up. If he wins comfortably over 2 there then surely he stays at 2. If he wins and looks as though a step up may be extra beneficial then the Ballymore must be a big option. If he gets beat.............

All super interesting. I don't envy Willie at all . Let it all unfold!

[Stormez]

Can't believe we are back onto the Vega Ballymore possibility again but can see why with the IEP Moscow Flyer run and assumptions that both he and Vega are Willie's top two. No getting away from fact that over the years he has religiously split his best two and that his Moscow Flyer winners have mostly turned up in the Supreme. I also think that looking at the current potential Supreme crop that most are hold up horses with a telling finish so I don't see where the pace is coming from so Vega might have to make his own pace and take it on. He's well capable of that but it's still not ideal. Looking at the potential Ballymore runners there's no end of horses that are likely to want to be up there so Vega could get a tow into the race at a decent pace which may suit his style of running and indeed help his jumping. If IEP is super impressive in the MF and shows a proper turn of foot again will PT have a big say in wanting to ride them both as well? Vega's performance at the DRF may also have a significant bearing on where he ends up. If he wins comfortably over 2 there then surely he stays at 2. If he wins and looks as though a step up may be extra beneficial then the Ballymore must be a big option. If he gets beat.............

All super interesting. I don't envy Willie at all . Let it all unfold!

I do! I’d through the missus under the first passing bus to be in his position

[Kevloaf]

Potentially a lazy one this but was Sir Gerhard running in the Ballymore all that different? CPS didn't have a runner in the Supreme... I guess jockey wise they don't have a retained rider but Townend would still want to ride both, if IEP looked to have a real shot (he'd still get the choice on M&S owned Mullins trained as far as I'm aware).

I'd say that situation was different yes, Sir Gerhard wasn't a clear fav for the Supreme - he was always shorter for the Ballymore from early on .... and that again assumes Paul Townend has as big a say as Ruby used to, which I don't believe.

After watching IEP, you couldn't say he's a standout either...


The way I see it, very clearly, is Facile Vega goes Supreme and others will slot in around that.

I won't be debating it any more or hedging on FV in the Ballymore myself..... if I'm wrong, I'll live with it - won't be the first time and I don't think there are any really obvious angles to profit from a switcharoo anyway

[Hardy Eustace]

Impervious mares chase / JWM BANC - 32/1 NRNB (59/1 skyb AP)
impervious turners / JWM Banc - 314/1 skyb AP

[Saxon Warrior]

I'm a bit surprised anyone thinks Facile Vega will go anywhere but the Supreme.

The problem with IEP being 'the' replacement is that he does have a retained jockey too, so they could easily both run in the Supreme.

therefore they're not related enough to make it appealing for me .... but low risk high reward so best of luck

Willie will run two or three in the Supreme and in the Ballymore.
I don’t think I’ve backed another trainers horse in those two races.

He could have a 1-2-3 in one of them, and a 1-2 in the other,

Not sure anyone knows which goes where, yet, he most likely hasn’t decided. 100-percent yet.

I’d guess FV Supreme, and Impaire Supreme too - they’re running and winning the races that his Supreme horses normally run in, and he doesn’t have a Constitution Hill this year to worry about - like when he sent Sir G to the Ballymore for an easier chance.

Ballymore yet to sort itself out for Willie, and the other trainers don’t seem to have much that can run above 150 RPR.

Gaelic Warrior hopefully runs this midweek, maybe Thursday over 2M4F, they’d learn more now, re his stamina and breeding suggesting that’s an obvious route to try.

……Now they know Impaire can travel and skip over the jumps at 2M, time to try Gaelic over the mid trip.

Indiana Dream also needs another outing at the mid trip, he could come into it, or maybe the A.Bartlett.

Loads of options for Willie.

[Lobos]

We are all thinking of course that FV wins comfortably over 2 at DRF. That may not happen and then what ? There are plenty of so called experts out there that are yet to be convinced by Vega based on his two runs so far. All still to be decided.

[darlojim]

We are all thinking of course that FV wins comfortably over 2 at DRF. That may not happen and then what ? There are plenty of so called experts out there that are yet to be convinced by Vega based on his two runs so far. All still to be decided.

It definitely isn't done and dusted with Facile Vega - Supreme, thats for sure.

If Vega wins convincingly at the DRF then you'd like to think that will swing it towards the supreme, but we won't know for certain until the Sunday before

FWIW - at the start of the season, the owners had 1 race in mind for FV, and Willie had the other in mind for him.