Related Doubles (ideas)

[charlie]

The Lawlors looks ripe for a few related doubles as I am convinced the favourite in one won't go (Grangeclare West) and the favourite in the other is over rated (Hermes Allen). The market will compress in one (AB) and have big shorteners in the other (Ballymore). The Albert Bartlett market prices are interesting. If you take GW out the picture the top 3 are HDVL @ 5/1, Favori De Champdou @ 12/1 and Sandor Clegane @ 12/1. A horse that runs tomorrow that I am very interested in is Affordale Fury. Not much looks to separate HDVL and Favori De Champdou on form, they both beat Letsbeclearaboutit and both are unbeaten. HDVL beat Monbeg Park and 8L - Affordale Fury beat Monbeg Park 3L (could have easily doubled that winning margin if not for making silly mistakes and encountering issues in running). Sandor Clegane is priced up at 12/1 having beaten Sam's Choice 16L last time out. Sam's Choice won over the Xmas period earning himself a rating of 123 - Affordale Fury beat Sam's Choice 18L. Whilst I don't necessarily think AF will win tomorrow, nor be ridden to have an overly hard race, a bold show would advertise his Albert Bartlett credentials and whilst not many 5 year olds win the AB, the last to achieve this was Very Wood for Noel Meade in 2014. Affordale Fury's campaign is a carbon copy of Very's Woods campaign, taking in Galway, Navan and Naas before being aimed at the AB. Its clearly the target, tomorrow is deep water and for that reason I am going with one of the top two to win and go Bally, with all roads leading to the AB for Affordale Fury:

Affordale Fury (AB) - 25/1
Irish Point (Bally) - 16/1
441/1

Affordale Fury (AB) - 25/1
Grangeclare West (Bally) - 6/1
181/1

[That Horse]

Affordale Fury (AB) - 25/1
Irish Point (Bally) - 16/1
441/1

Affordale Fury (AB) - 25/1
Grangeclare West (Bally) - 6/1
181/1

Dawn Rising not on your radar, who won the race that Affordale fell in?

[AnFiieLD.]

Dawn Rising not on your radar, who won the race that Affordale fell in?

not for me to answer but my reading of that race was that Affordale was the likely winner had he not fallen. I would want to see an improved jumping performance from him tomorrow

[That Horse]

not for me to answer but my reading of that race was that Affordale was the likely winner had he not fallen. I would want to see an improved jumping performance from him tomorrow

I can certainly see the angle Charlie is going for, as in Noel Meade going down the Very Wood route, and AF was putting American Mike to bed before he fell. However, the more I watch that race back, the more I think Dawn Rising is finishing better and would have beat both anyway.

For what it's worth, I like both Affordale Fury and Dawn Rising and will probably back both for the AB. If I had to choose one, I think I'd lean towards Dawn Rising and I'd take a Mark Walsh or JJ Slevin ridden horse over a Bryan Cooper one too.

[charlie]

Dawn Rising not on your radar, who won the race that Affordale fell in?

No as I don't think he'd have beaten AF.

[Exar Essay]

Dawn Rising not on your radar, who won the race that Affordale fell in?

On mine. That pace was suicidal. I think AF would’ve been caught by Dawn Rising anyway. Speculation, I know.

I really like AF though and given a more sensible ride think he’s a great candidate for this … but think prices about him might be better after the race. If he’s truly co
competitive tomorrow, surely the Ballymore becomes and option?

[Quevega]

Yep
guesswork
but I’d certainly be on the dawn rising side of the hypothetical argument

[robith]

2021 Supreme Revenge

Appreciate It (Arkle)/Blue Lord (CC)

32/1 NRNB with Hills

(I've taken bigger cos I've used a free bet on it)

[Hurricane fly]

Does anyone agree that if TMSG loses today she will revert to hurdles for the season?

Considering Instit today / TMSG (MH) is 57.5/1 as a double

[Lobos]

Does anyone agree that if TMSG loses today she will revert to hurdles for the season?

Considering Instit today / TMSG (MH) is 57.5/1 as a double

Very much a possibility . Henry's horses are just not performing as they should though so I reckon there is a bigger issue.

[Kevloaf]

Does anyone agree that if TMSG loses today she will revert to hurdles for the season?

Considering Instit today / TMSG (MH) is 57.5/1 as a double

Clever, like that idea

[charlie]

Clever, like that idea

Not sure about that. I love TMSG and think she'll win today, but if she doesn't, you'd be betting on her going back into a division they chose to leave behind, into a division that looks a lot more competitive than the previous year.

[Kevloaf]

Not sure about that. I love TMSG and think she'll win today, but if she doesn't, you'd be betting on her going back into a division they chose to leave behind, into a division that looks a lot more competitive than the previous year.

As a previous festival winner, thrown in, she wouldn't be a 57/1 shot though would she?



It's 100% a very clever related double idea, which is what the thread is for.

One outcome affecting another for a better return.




........and while the race is being run, with jumping like this, TMSG ain't continuing the chase career.... don't think she'll be winning anything

[ComplyOrDie]

Someone has probably already noted this one, and at bigger, but a lot of talk about So Scottish for the plate, so I'm adding the related form double of Boothill (Grand Annual) & So Scottish (Plate) in a 77/1 NRNB double.

[Birds Nest]

Someone has probably already noted this one, and at bigger, but a lot of talk about So Scottish for the plate, so I'm adding the related form double of Boothill (Grand Annual) & So Scottish (Plate) in a 77/1 NRNB double.

I know its nrmb but didnt fry say they're skipping cheltenham? Doncaster then straight to aintree with boothill. Nice idea tho...