Related Doubles (ideas)

[Lobos]

Not impossible they switch Bob Olinger to Supreme....and specially so we’re anything to happen to Appr It

Double on this and GDM and Brave each for Ballymore gives some nice cover....good still NRNB

Always a fan of these scenarios and really hope it doesn’t given ones I have on Appr It and GDM / Brave / Bob O

Why on earth would they switch to Supreme ?? They've confirmed BO is going straight to the Ballymore haven't they?

[Kevloaf]

Why on earth would they switch to Supreme ?? They've confirmed BO is going straight to the Ballymore haven't they?

1. Injury to Appreciate It
2. Heavy Ground
3. Might think its easier

As a TWAR man, you must understand

[Lobos]

1. Injury to Appreciate It
2. Heavy Ground
3. Might think its easier

As a TWAR man, you must understand

Not when a target is made clear. Had his final prep winning over the distance impressively on Heavy ground. Not a chance he switches. Complete waste time and energy imo.

The weekends gone so well , all I'm left with is debating this . Lol !!

[TigerRolllllll]

My point on above is it’s a no lose option if you do NRNB

Bob O prob only likely to switch if Appr It drops out.....in which case he will shorten dramatically....and u will be sat on some amazing doubles

[Lobos]

My point on above is it’s a no lose option if you do NRNB

Bob O prob only likely to switch if Appr It drops out.....in which case he will shorten dramatically....and u will be sat on some amazing doubles

Don't think he'd switch whoever was missing from the Supreme. He's more suited to Ballymore distance. It just seems like a bet for bettings sake to me regardless of NRNB. Why tie your money up ? Don't get it.

[Kevloaf]

Don't think he'd switch whoever was missing from the Supreme. He's more suited to Ballymore distance. It just seems like a bet for bettings sake to me regardless of NRNB. Why tie your money up ? Don't get it.

His 2nd to Ferny Hollow, is better 2m form that literally anything bar say, Metier and Ballyadam (and Appreciate It) have done.


If he ran in the Supreme, he'd be 3rd fav at absolute worst.... which is similar to the Ballymore.



It's not that hard to get - NRNB bets like this aren't for everyone, but they're worthwhile as literally no risk.

[Lobos]

His 2nd to Ferny Hollow, is better 2m form that literally anything bar say, Metier and Ballyadam (and Appreciate It) have done.


If he ran in the Supreme, he'd be 3rd fav at absolute worst.... which is similar to the Ballymore.



It's not that hard to get - NRNB bets like this aren't for everyone, but they're worthwhile as literally no risk.

But he still got beat and looked like the step up would suit, which it did. Dropping back to 2 miles against speedier types would not make sense at all.

[Kevloaf]

But he still got beat and looked like the step up would suit, which it did. Dropping back to 2 miles against speedier types would not make sense at all.

He got beat by Ferny Hollow, the only horse fast enough to beat Appreciate It...

It's hardly mental on that alone to think Bob O, who wasn't beaten far, might be able to beat AI at 2m....


I would argue very strongly that Appreciate It is better suited to the Ballymore.... I think he'd be an actual racing certainy! He'd freaking destroy Bob Olinger, Gaillard Du Mensil and Bravemansgame...

[TigerRolllllll]

I understand why many people may not want to do these type of bets as they usually seem unlikely scenarios, etc......but as someone fairly new to ante-post, want to pass on to other newbies just how profitable these can be.....easily the best thread for me over past 2 seasons.

You can do tiny bets and drive amazing value with form and scenario links

Example of ones that might pay this time for me....

when Appr It was entered for 2m second time, there had to be chance if he won, they would switch....and he was 14s I think.....plus if he switched the obvious 2 favs at time Bob Ol and Brave would shorten.....couple tiny bets risks nothing ....and can protect other parts of ur book. This is better value than just backing Appr It alone (tho thankfully did that too)

I also have all the combinations of Spuds form from last year in RSA / Stayers, plus few others....so Monkfish / Thyme Hill now looks good and even Fury Road not dead

Obviously I have lots dead rubbish too .....but last couple years has taught me to do lots of tiny ones and it seems to pay well ....and as I said de-risk sometimes too

Have seen Kev and others put some amazing ideas up here.....Altior QM , but lose to Cyrname last year was a brilliant one that could so easily have landed

Really encourage people to share ideas.....I will prob do quite a lot of them for one

[The King Pimm]

There’s got to be a twist in the Supreme market, there is so little depth or competition after AI that someone is going to sense that weakness and move in. With AI winning again today and beating so many supremes candidates again, Third Time Lucki losing and Metier expected to contest the Betfair Hurdle the Supreme has to be one of the weakest races of the festival on paper besides the Pertemps and Cross Country. If I was HDB even with his poor novice hurdles record I would be considering the Supreme for Bob Olinger at this stage. I definitely hope he stays in the Ballymore but I think he has a better chance in the Supreme.

[Kevloaf]

Have seen Kev and others put some amazing ideas up here.....Altior QM , but lose to Cyrname last year was a brilliant one that could so easily have landed

Haha, that one was actually properly clever.... like they Honeysuckle ICH / Concertsita and BDD ones in my ever so humble opinion

[TigerRolllllll]

Haha, that one was actually properly clever.... like they Honeysuckle ICH / Concertsita and BDD ones in my ever so humble opinion

Forgot those.....yes Honey doubles and Trebles now look super yummy

i only do tiny bets as for fun, but reckon bigger stakes people could clean up if she lands CH

[Lobos]

Mares Bingo


Just chatting with Lobos in the Mares Hurdle thread, mentioned this so will have to post it up....

2551/1

Honeysuckle (Champion Hurdle)
Concertista (Mares Hurdle)
Benie Des Dieux (Mares Chase)



As much as I don't think Honeysuckle will run, I can't deny they'll weight it up and Henry De Bromhead is pretty game, he may not just automatically take in the easier race IF (Benie Des Dieux) does end up chasing. BDD would only end up chasing IF Mullins has what he considers a penalty kick in the Mares Hurdles, and Concertista does look the most likely, given her festival record? (Compared to Stormy Ireland, or Burning Victory?)


So whilst I don't actually love this bet, the small stakes trixie may well be worth a min stakes dabble...

This one looks crap !

[Kevloaf]

This one looks crap !

Haha, until finals declarations, I agree

[Lobos]

Haha, until finals declarations, I agree

I took your advice though and did two of the doubles.