Related Bets (ideas)

[Carnage at Taunton]

Which horses in particular do you think the ground caused them to run considerably below par in the last year or so at the Festival?

I've put above what seemed to be the two most ground dependent horses with big chances last year and they both pissed in on ground they supposedly hate. They drifted from their ante post price, drifted on the day and the ground proved no bother.

As I said, unless it's a road (will never happen) or heavy ground like Haydock can be (again I don't think Cheltenham would ever get like that and Haydock heavy does suit some horses in particualr) it's one more variable to worry about that would be low down my list of things to consider for Cheltenham.

I’ve been into this game for years. I’m not even going to begin to attempt to list horses.
We all know some horses go better on different surfaces.

[Quevega]

No apology needed at all Fascinating combination of tasks. I’d prioritise the cheese and crackers personally.

I did, that was the issue.

I read the first line of your post, and not the rest.
And the first paragraph of the 15 page document for the insurance before getting fed up and replying that I'd like to renew. Hopefully the rest of it wasn't important, and the same as last years, although I can't remember if I read that either.

[Kevloaf]

I’ve been into this game for years. I’m not even going to begin to attempt to list horses.
We all know some horses go better on different surfaces.

I believe their point is, about how much importance we (the average punter / 'you') put on it, is too highly weighted for the evidence we have.

I'm not that fussed about ground either to be honest unless it's really extreme conditions .... as an ante post punter, if anyone really cared about the ground then they shouldn't be making any bets at all as it's such a 'big unknown'?


Related doubles thread .... so unless it's which soft ground horses we should be backing together in the hope of rain (Bioluminescence?) and ..... etc

[Benjy23]

A selection of form related doubles I've recently placed or intend to...

Final Demand & Wingmen - Turners & Bartlett (DRF form) The New Lion & Electric Mason - Turners & Martin Pipe (EM ran behind TNL twice)
Answer to Kayf & Betterdaysahead - JR & BANC (MP form from last year)
Hot Fuss & East India Dock - FW & Triumph (that 4 lengths is the closest anyone has got to EID all season)
Hot Fuss & Marble Sands - FW & Plate (all weather 1-2 prep )
Trelawne & Iroko - Ultima & Grand National
Transmission / Haiti & Moon D'Orange


Some boring stuff and some real speculative stuff in there. Potentially covering some I've not yet though, or just want hope of more on.

I'm sure there's a whole load more in the handicaps that make more sense, but targets becomes a bit of an issue. Suggestions welcome though. Not much else happening this week for me...

[Kevloaf]

461/1 Trixie idea


Just had a look and can't see this put up in here anywhere at least, and I'm a bit disappointed with myself for not working this one out earlier before the 'sea of blue' for Galileo Dame today in the Mares Novice Hurdle.... or when I read about Lady Vega Allen's potentially leiniant mark meaning she could go for the Fred Winter


DRF Juvenile Grade 1

1st - Hello Neighbour - 5/1 - (Triumph)
2nd - Galileo Dame 6-1 - (Mares Novice Hurdle)
3rd - Lady Vega Allen - 10/1 - (Fred Winter)
4th - Willy De Houelle - 10/1 - (Fred Winter)




I did them manually and used a boost to 650/1 for the Lady Vega Allen version, with WH ... but 461/1 NRNB as well in case more than one end up in the Triumph and even then it's not a terrible bet to be left with

Fred Winter - obviously ridiculously hard, but we've got mighty Mullins horses running for us ....now I much prefer Lady Vega Allen to WDH - have just included him as he's prominent in the betting and he's a bit of a 'disaster' pick ... from being all the rage in the Triumph, how frustrating if he won the Fred Winter and we'd ignored him for flopping .... when realistically ignoring the hype beforehand the run is solid, and then add the hype back in, if he's going t oend up a good horse, would it be a surprise he won? I recall listening to Kevin Blake once make a point about well backed or hyped horses and that the big stables don't often get it wrong... they may not be proven right straight away but he will pop up one day (I might be mis-remembering it ..... but still, he's just a throwaway one you could re-back....

Lady Vega Allen 10/1 - Compared to Murcia, both OR 136 .... LVA finished a shoulder behind Hello Neighour, Murcia was 22L back in 8th. Next time, 3rd 1.5L behind Hello Neighbour, with Galileo Dame in 2nd ... with Willy De Houelle 3L behind her, ..... and Bacchanalian back in 6th.... she's just going to beat any of the ones she's already faced for me, quite easily. Obviously it's a really tough race but if they're coming here, I see it as a huge sign of strength, I think she'll be the one that is shortest for Willie and I think she's going to be bang there. It's obviously the hardest leg of the trixie, but I like that it's first ... because if it comes in, you can see genuine form reasons for the others to shorten or have a better chance, and if she blows out, at least it's still a solid enough double albeit you'd be losing some faith but you're no longer really caring about the bet, but it's left with a solid enough related double.

If she does win though.... it franks the form of Galileo Dame who will be getting an additional weight allowance (a good piece of race placing by Joseph/Blake) ... she's already shortened today, and with Maughreen a potentially weak horse ahead in terms of what the betting market may do, I think she's really, really interesting. Ultimately she was a little disappointing first time out, beaten by Wendrock, but he got slammed for the Fred Winter and was well fancied beforehand ... but he's 136, and so is GD and she'd wallop him if they met again on the terms now IMO.


If we're lucky enough and both have won, Hello Neighbour becomes a hugely exciting prosect. You'll have an unbeaten Cromwell horse, who will potentially already be off the mark, up against the British. Now obviously the British look great, Lulamba and East India Dock right now deserve to be where they are, but is it impossible that the unbeaten Irish horse goes 2nd fav, or even fav? I think if this trixie is live by then, he'll be half the price he is now

Most people are already on Lulamba and East India Dock at nice prices, and I think this is a nice 'cheap' way to cover a big threat for those who aren't on him, or see him as a danger. Or just want a big return!

Worst case scenario is that Thursday evening you've lost a trixie.... but the upside is huge, on such strong related form from a race that's been throwing up festival winners year upon year

[Kevloaf]

The above case is much better than the WillHill Will multis ... but this is fun from the silly bet thread

Canadian - 148589/1 NRNB


with will hill - 145859/1 NRNB

William Munny - Supreme (shorter than Kiss Will)
Will Do - NH Chase (shorter for this than Kim Muir)
Kiss Will (probably a NR but William Munny better?)
Will the Wise - Pertemps
Willitgoahead - Hunter Chase

and yankee Kiss Will (Supreme) instead of William Munny and the rest 13859/1 - NRNB






other ones I've looked at tonight are

Jango Baie / Caldwell Potter / Springwell Bay (Arkle / JR / Plate) - NRNB 959/1

Crebilly (Ultima) / Springwell Bay (Plate) 87/1 ( Istabraq ) look away! But if they're moving Crebilly away from the plate, maybe they're confident they have the winner in waiting, in Springwell Bay, now fav on exchanges for plate? ...


Also looked at BANC horses with Answer To Kayf as Better Days Ahead 76/1 and Quai De Bourbon 164/1 from the Pipe form look interesting


I also looked at Firefox and thought he's been beaten this season by Majborough and last season over hurdles infamously battled Ballyburn ... for a horse I haven't got backed I thought about those two shorties with him in the Jack Richards at 37/1


Also did back Firefox (JR) / Mint Boy (KM) - 143/1 .... 1st and 2nd years ago so very look but both in handicaps on the same day was fun as I like Elliott and Cromwell handicappers in partulcar


and finally I did look at Bugise Seagull properly after seeing the Pertemps thread, obviously already tipped as a single by Aaron Lad and it looks good, but just going through the form and there are some funny and great horses he's raced, including Brighterdaysahead & Johnnywho who are both sub 4/1 for a Champion Hurdle and a Kim Muir ... and Jango Baie who is 3rd fav for an Arkle and Masaccio who is short for handicaps .... a shame The Jukebox Man isn't in the BANC too as that'd have been an incredibly random 6 to combine

[AaronLad]

Some good ideas there Kevloaf, i particularly like the idea of a bugise seagull related multiple.

One I've had a go at and I'm really quite keen on is Golden Ace (Mares) and Lucky Place (stayers).

Both have really good cheltenham form, have raced against each other 3 times, both ran well at last years festival, the likely conditions will pose no problems for either and I like the way their names rhyme, Golden Ace and lucky place both win a race......

[Jrow]

What about the East India book end on the friday
East India Dock
East India Express

[Old Vic]

Moon d’orange
anna bunina

the enabler
workahead
jasmin de Vaux

[Runragged]

Quick post on this, but it is well worth considering the 2 1/2m novice handicap chase run at Cheltenham on Trials day. The race was won by Jagwar and is obviously a clear selection whichever race he turns up in (Jack Richards/Plate). However, 3rd was Masaccio, 4th was Resplendent Grey and 5th was Whistle Stop Tour. Masaccio still has a choice of three options in the Ultima, JR and Plate, I wonder if connections are looking to potentially avoid Jagwar. Resplendent Grey now only has the option of the NH Chase whilst Whistle Stop Tour has the Ultima, or possibly the Midlands National at the weekend. Worth waiting to see where each horse will go but may be an opportunity to link all 4 in related bets in what is likely strong form.

[Liammet]

A selection of form related doubles I've recently placed or intend to...

Final Demand & Wingmen - Turners & Bartlett (DRF form) The New Lion & Electric Mason - Turners & Martin Pipe (EM ran behind TNL twice)
Answer to Kayf & Betterdaysahead - JR & BANC (MP form from last year)
Hot Fuss & East India Dock - FW & Triumph (that 4 lengths is the closest anyone has got to EID all season)
Hot Fuss & Marble Sands - FW & Plate (all weather 1-2 prep )
Trelawne & Iroko - Ultima & Grand National
Transmission / Haiti & Moon D'Orange


Some boring stuff and some real speculative stuff in there. Potentially covering some I've not yet though, or just want hope of more on.

I'm sure there's a whole load more in the handicaps that make more sense, but targets becomes a bit of an issue. Suggestions welcome though. Not much else happening this week for me...

Have done the Answer to Kayf/Better Days Ahead each way Double
Martin Pipe form usually strong
Both have strong each way chances and could potentially both win

[Lobos]

Wodhooh/Take No Chances

[Benjy23]

Have done the Answer to Kayf/Better Days Ahead each way Double
Martin Pipe form usually strong
Both have strong each way chances and could potentially both win

Yea, had couple of goes at the each way double. Quite like it's chances of at least placing. Seem to only be two places available in the BANC now though so I've not got as much on as I'd like. Will have another good look at going in again after decs.

Seeing as I'm here... Today's related Cheltenham Trixie

Holy Joe Smoke (3:35 Sandown)
Henry's Friend (Ultima)
Resplendent Grey (NHC)

Goshen and Victtorino (Ultima) an alternative. But I prefer Henry's Friend

[Old Vic]

Amazing that Sean Bowen hasn’t had a festival winner. I have long shared Gaultsview on momentum for jockeys and think this might be his year. Perming all his rides.

[Kevloaf]

Amazing that Sean Bowen hasn’t had a festival winner. I have long shared Gaultsview on momentum for jockeys and think this might be his year. Perming all his rides.

Was literally thinking about thim this morning in the shower


Given some of his rides this year he surely gets off the mark, and then I agree, another ... like busses ....


What's he got?

Day 1
Terefirma
Resplendant Grey