If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
Announcement
Collapse
Fat Jockey Patrons
Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated. Become a Patron!
I think Thomas Mor at 40s could be alright here. Great performance at cheltenham, then wasnt a great jumps performance. Surely will revert back to hurdles after hacking up after a long break after winner the pert qualifier. Hobbs won with fingal a fear years ago now.
I actually don't mind him, and backed him this morning, without NRNB @ 55/1 (boosted price).
He's 3 from 4 over hurdles over 3m and 4 from 6 over hurdles in general. The two times he's been beat was in the Challow Hurdle over 2m4f where he was PU and in the 2023 Albert Bartlett where he finished 5th to Stay Away Fay.
Could jericko du ruponet at 15s look quite big come 3.35
pm today?
No, not really.
The price already offered is on the assumption they qualify.
To be cut from current prices, you'd imagine he'd need to win impressively. With which his chance probably goes
He only needs to place top 4 to qualify, so the likelihood of him placing and being cut is unlikely.
If you like him for the final the best way to play would be a place bet today rolled on to potentially bigger odds
No, not really.
The price already offered is on the assumption they qualify.
To be cut from current prices, you'd imagine he'd need to win impressively. With which his chance probably goes
He only needs to place top 4 to qualify, so the likelihood of him placing and being cut is unlikely.
If you like him for the final the best way to play would be a place bet today rolled on to potentially bigger odds
Back to lay is an option but then you're hoping he wins, which is unlikely considering connections?
They'll not be wanting a win right?
I wouldn't have thought so
Not one on my radar anyway, was just saying in general that'd be the only way to do it - althoug not sure would be able to actually lay off yet on Betfair, in fact certainly not they don't have the market yet do they
I suppose it all depends on how you look at things.
last weekend my pertemps fancy was offered 20/1 nrmb, I opted to play the place for the qualifier at 9/4, a very good price. Not something that is available for jeriko.
My fancy was then available at 25/1 nrmb after finishing 2nd.
I ultimately have a potential 100pt return playing it that way for free?
I suppose it all depends on how you look at things.
last weekend my pertemps fancy was offered 20/1 nrmb, I opted to play the place for the qualifier at 9/4, a very good price. Not something that is available for jeriko.
My fancy was then available at 25/1 nrmb after finishing 2nd.
I ultimately have a potential 100pt return playing it that way for free?
Yep, that sounds sensible
It seems to be the only angle that we have an advantage over the bookies, or where they are doing it the wrong way around
Horses that run in handicaps pre Cheltenhan, don't win and get pushed out NRNB, versus the winners who get cut
What I'm essentially saying is either now or for future reference, if you're looking to play a horse declared, do it the way I've explained above, never take the price before they even qualified, for the pertemps,
No, not really.
The price already offered is on the assumption they qualify.
To be cut from current prices, you'd imagine he'd need to win impressively. With which his chance probably goes
He only needs to place top 4 to qualify, so the likelihood of him placing and being cut is unlikely.
If you like him for the final the best way to play would be a place bet today rolled on to potentially bigger odds
Normally I’d agree but I’m not sure this horse is typical though. If they have had his trip wrong all this time he could be very well handicapped. James Bowen gave his supreme backers the jitters in a post race interview when he said he felt he was a staying novice type. With all the stuff since including the trainers form last year, his debacle of a chase debut etc. it may have been masking what he has really needed all along. I’d say IF he wins snuggly today folks holding an 80 -1 ticket will be in good shape as if this turns out to be his trip a few extra pounds may well not stop him. Another way of looking at it. If he wins today it will be because they think they have the leeway to take this en route which would be a tip in itself perhaps. Will be fascinating to see how it pans out shortly.
Normally I’d agree but I’m not sure this horse is typical though. If they have had his trip wrong all this time he could be very well handicapped. James Bowen gave his supreme backers the jitters in a post race interview when he said he felt he was a staying novice type. With all the stuff since including the trainers form last year, his debacle of a chase debut etc. it may have been masking what he has really needed all along. I’d say IF he wins snuggly today folks holding an 80 -1 ticket will be in good shape as if this turns out to be his trip a few extra pounds may well not stop him. Another way of looking at it. If he wins today it will be because they think they have the leeway to take this en route which would be a tip in itself perhaps. Will be fascinating to see how it pans out shortly.
Looking at it like this I'd agree.
But id still be sceptical whether they'd risk winning.
It could however turn out just like you say
We process personal data about users of our site, through the use of cookies and other technologies, to deliver our services, personalize advertising, and to analyze site activity. We may share certain information about our users with our advertising and analytics partners. For additional details, refer to our Privacy Policy.
By clicking "I AGREE" below, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our personal data processing and cookie practices as described therein. You also acknowledge that this forum may be hosted outside your country and you consent to the collection, storage, and processing of your data in the country where this forum is hosted.
Tweet
Comment