PERTEMPS NETWORK FINAL Handicap Hurdle

[Stormez]

Won’t send both SDB & Sporting John to the stayers instead of hear will they?

[archie]

It wouldn't put me off backing him but he is absolutely not running off 149.

[JackieMoon33]

Claimers get their claim for a reason though. If it were that simple, claiming jockeys would win all the big races. Obviously it’s not black and white because there’s nothing to say Rob James won’t give him the perfect ride, but ultimately the 7lb is there because it’s accepted it will roughly even out the jockeys lack of experience and any sub optimal decisions they may make.

personally I think Rob James is very good value for his claim, but sdb hasn’t always been a very easy ride, and I think Barry Geraghty in the plate was worth a few lbs at least to this horse. As good as Rob is relatively speaking, he’s probably not worth the full 7lbs over Geraghty or even mark Walsh - maybe a net benefit of 4lbs you could say?

Praise the lord someone has said this.

[KevMc]

Rob James is no ‘inexperienced claimer’. The man has ridden hundreds of P2P winners and also a Cheltenham festival winner.

[Middle_Of_March]

Claimers get their claim for a reason though. If it were that simple, claiming jockeys would win all the big races. Obviously it’s not black and white because there’s nothing to say Rob James won’t give him the perfect ride, but ultimately the 7lb is there because it’s accepted it will roughly even out the jockeys lack of experience and any sub optimal decisions they may make.

personally I think Rob James is very good value for his claim, but sdb hasn’t always been a very easy ride, and I think Barry Geraghty in the plate was worth a few lbs at least to this horse. As good as Rob is relatively speaking, he’s probably not worth the full 7lbs over Geraghty or even mark Walsh - maybe a net benefit of 4lbs you could say?

That’s an excellent post. Let’s also remember SDBs first win in this race was when he needed being pushed along throughout the second circuit and Geraghty somehow managed to get him to win. That was a ride of the season contender. Even with 7lbs, I couldn’t have SDB here personally.

[Eggs]

….Mike Cattermole tips Remastered for this, not sure if that should worry me.

[charlie]

Posted in my diary but makes sense to post here. I think Tullybeg is a good thing here.

Pre-Cheltenham

At the end of the summer Tullybeg started off a mark of 129. He runs in the Pertemps off a mark of 140. He beat Go Another One (141) 2 lengths in receipt of 2lbs at Down Royal. Go Another One went on to win at Perth over fences off a mark of 144 and posted an RPR of 150 in a Grade 3 chase on Cheltenham trials day. He's a 140 hurdler over 3m all day. Tullybeg then went to Navan where he beat Bardenstown Lad in receipt of 1lbs. Bardenstown Lad has won twice since and is now rated 140, and is a player in the Albert Bartlett. Tullybeg then went to Gowran off a mark of 130 and beat Hewick who followed up with a win over fences at Sedgefield (albeit over 3m5f) off a mark of 142, posting and an RPR of 155. Bardenstown Lad is a solid yardstick of comparison because he's a 140's hurdler who lost to Tullybeg off levels as a favourite who was well supported, and then followed up at Cheltenham earning himself a mark of 140. Given we haven't seen Tullybeg for 6 months, all this tells me that Tullybeg was around a 140's horse at a very early stage in his career. The handicapper, after assessing his Cheltenham run thinks 140 reflects his level. I think he's demonstrated this is the very minimum of his ability if he hasn't improved, and if that Cheltenham run was a true reflection of his ability. Two big 'if's' but in short, I do think he will improve and I don't think that Cheltenham run was a true reflection of his actual ability.

'That' Cheltenham Run

Tullybeg re-opposed a horse called Born Patriot at Cheltenham who he'd previously beaten 9 lengths at Navan off levels. It's interesting comparing the two of them after the 4th last at Cheltenham because there is still a long way to go at that point and it's a good advertisement of what wanting to win vs not wanting to win looks like. Kevin Sexton is niggling away on Born Patriot from after the 4th last whilst Jordan Gainford is basically sat motionless on Tullybeg until they turn in. Born Patriot saves all the ground, goes up the inner, was eventually asked for a proper effort and finished second, whereas Tullybeg wasn't really asked for a proper effort until after the last. It was genuinely masterful riding by Jordan Gainford under very clear instructions. If you watch Tullybeg's races at Navan (last hurdle) and Gowran (last 2 hurdles) you'll see how Jordan rides Tullybeg when he wants him to win. From his body position, how he uses his weight, hands etc. He throws Tullybeg at hurdles and the horse responds with low accurate jumping, accelerating away from his obstacles and beating horses we know are rated at least 140, and, significantly better than the 4 horses who bettered Tullybeg at Cheltenham. It's exactly how you want a horse to react under pressure, yet at Cheltenham, Jordan took him wide which is clever, and didn't show anywhere near the same animation as he had on previous days.

Conclusion

That run at Cheltenham was a professional attempt to conceal ability, whilst giving the horse invaluable course experience - the literal definition of killing two birds with one stone. He's been tucked away for 6 months for a trainer who's had nine runners between 2017 and 2020, won three and the other six have finished 5th or better. There is no doubt in my mind this horse has been laid out for this race and he carries a stone less around Cheltenham next week than he did in the trial. If you watch how easily he travelled and how comfortable he looked at Cheltenham, then couple that with how he responds to pressure when properly asked, then factor in him carrying more than a stone less on his back, then factor in spring ground which we know he'll love that might disadvantage others, you collectively have what I think is a brilliant handicap bet. As I've said before, I love horses by Sholokhov who's produced the likes of Don Cossack, Shishkin and Bob Olinger and I think this lad at 12/1 EW with 5 places is a brilliant handicap bet for day 3.

[On The Fringe]

Since the weights for this came out, I've been working through the entries trying to find information that confirms whether horses are intended runners here. This is from the point of view of finding 6 horses that will come out for Dunboyne to get a run, and an additional 3 horses on top of that which will give Remastered a run.

So far I have identified the following entries who are intended runners based on trainer/owner comments in stable tours and online:

1. Sire Du Berlais
2. Ballyandy
3. Dallas Des Pictons
4. The Jam Man
5. Sassy Yet Classy
6. Honest Vic
7. Tullybeg
8. Dame De Compagnie
9. Stoney Mountain
10. Alaphillippe
11. Winter Fog
12. Mars Harper
13. Folcano
14. Pileon

The following are 50/50 according to trainers/owners

1. Sporting John
2. Orbys Legend
3. Whatsnottoknow

That leaves the following which I can find no information on. Does anyone have any information on the following as to whether they are a likely runner here?

1. Koshari
2. Go Another One
3. Al Dancer
4. Panda Boy
5. Third Wind
6. Brinkley
7. Mill Green
8. If the Cap Fits
9. Born Patriot
10. Coeur Serein
11. Didtheyleaveuoutto
12. The Cob
13. Ratfacemcdougall
14. Eminent Poet

The last two on this list are only of interest for Remastered to get a run, and are not applicable to Dunboyne.

With what I believe are 14 confirmed runners and only 10 spaces left to fill, I think come the 5 day entries for this (next Friday I believe), I'd hope the see Dunboyne and Remastered no worse than No. 26 on the list if they have any chance of getting a run.

If anyone has any intelligence that differs from the information above, please comment.

Really hoping for the defection of at least 6 horses today who are rated above Dunboyne. I know it is only the 5/6 day confirmations but I vaguely remember from previous years with this race, more horses defect at this stage than at final decs. I could be completely wrong with that however.

6 defections or more today would be ideal, however I'd take 4 defections at this stage in the hope 2 or more drop out at final decs

[punterorplonker]

No sporting for either race

[Big Bucks]

SDB Blue here and taken out of PP stayers market. Decision made!

[Kevloaf]

SDB Blue here and taken out of PP stayers market. Decision made!

Crickey, I thought that was a done deal.

Glad I haven't been stressing over that one

[Big Bucks]

Crickey, I thought that was a done deal.

Glad I haven't been stressing over that one

So did I tbf! But read on here yesterday someone said he was going Stayers!

[Bonjers]

I think Remastered needs another 3 to come out to get a run.

[Kevloaf]

I think Remastered needs another 3 to come out to get a run.

Confidence levels?

[On The Fringe]

Somebody please tell what number Dunboyne is now! I think I'm more obsessed about him making the cut than actually winning!