2021 Champion Chase - have bookies got this wrong ?

[Istabraq]

We were with people connected to Rouge Vif on the day an they were adamant their horse would finish in the 3, and they were right, so he was clearly primed to run well and had a stack of hurdle form that confirmed he was a good horse.

I appreciate ratings can’t be taken literally with novices but these (3rd and 4th) are two very experienced horses, so if someone has another theory suggesting the Arkle was not above average I’m very keen to listen...

[Outlaw]

Connections are not always the best judges of a horse rose tints and all that, the front 4 all have had 13 or 14 starts which just emphases the figures the 3rd and 4th have run at chelt are accurate, and the front two made more use of stamina. Time will tell but PTKO/FAKIR are big prices for those that think the opposite of me and are going into open company 160ish and room for improvement. I do give Fakir hope with him still being 5 for what it's worth.

Where would you rate this years Arkle in the last 10 out of curiosity ? for me it would be on a par with last years time will tell but if the 3rd/4th doc come back next season it would be a Ga tilt at best for me.

[Istabraq]

Yeah you need a year or so to judge the strength of an Arkle, I personally thought 2019 renewal was below average.
As I’ve been comparing Arkle and Champion Chase form for much of the day I know the 4th horse that day was 20 lengths behind the winner and he entered the race on a mark of 143, and that’s what stands out when looking at those two that were 20l behind this year.
It’s only one angle granted, but I’m looking at anything at the moment...

[Outlaw]

Yeah the 2019 renewal has very similar RPRs in respect to what distances horses were beaten vs this years renewal it's interesting tbf. Last years hasn't worked out well as we know and it's interesting they gave Duc Des an equivalent figure to Douvans year i know his was on much quicker going but he was rapid in his year. One downside of the hcap system is they have to rate a performance and a horse may not replicate that again or at other courses,anyhow that's enough on figs for one night.

[Saxon Warrior]

I've taken a very strong view on Fakir Doudaries as the one with more untapped potential but have been, and will continue to, back Put the Kettle On too.

What am I missing when the two strongest bets are 20/1 and 25/1 ?

I’ve thought the Arkle Two were the betting basis for the 2021 Champion Chase ever since this years Champion Chase finished.

They romped home in the Arkle, didn’t look a fluke and have two top trainers.

I reckon they are big prices because it wasn’t two from Mullins/Elliott/Henderson duelling at the end of the Arkle. If it was then they would be half their current prices.

Managed to take 33/1 Put The Kettle On, straight away, and assessing FD as a CC/Ryanair possible, this far out, I had a small bet at 33/1 on him for the Ryanair before the price dribbles away. Equally happy to have Fakir D @ 20/1 with Chashout for the Champion Chase.

[Kautostar]

Who’s doing NRNB this early?

[Saxon Warrior]

Who’s doing NRNB this early?

Whoops, got my Cashout and NRNB mixed up. "with cashout" amended post.

[kinloch brae]

Looking at the Arkle field.

Rouge Vif and Global Citizen are probably Grade 3 horses round Cheltenham, Grade 2 at best elsewhere.

Al Dancer Grade 3?

Notebook never looked likely and didn't reproduce the Irish form. Big question marks going forward.

Maire Banrigh came down but guesswork as to whether she was a genuine Grade 1 horse.

Cash Back another who didn't reproduce the Irish form.

Esprit Du Large winner of a weak Grade 1

Brewin'upastorm, more hype than anything else, totally out of his comfort zone from an early stage.

I would take Put The Kettle On from the field - she didn't have an easy lead and was asserting close home - but in general I don't think the two mile novices were that good. In fact I don't think the novices full stop were that good.

[Middle_Of_March]

Looking at the Arkle field.

Rouge Vif and Global Citizen are probably Grade 3 horses round Cheltenham, Grade 2 at best elsewhere.

Al Dancer Grade 3?

Notebook never looked likely and didn't reproduce the Irish form. Big question marks going forward.

Maire Banrigh came down but guesswork as to whether she was a genuine Grade 1 horse.

Cash Back another who didn't reproduce the Irish form.

Esprit Du Large winner of a weak Grade 1

Brewin'upastorm, more hype than anything else, totally out of his comfort zone from an early stage.

I would take Put The Kettle On from the field - she didn't have an easy lead and was asserting close home - but in general I don't think the two mile novices were that good. In fact I don't think the novices full stop were that good.

I’ve just watched the Arkle back simply to watch Brewinupastorm and there’s no way you can say he was out of his comfort stage at any point, let alone ‘from an early stage’.

[7barrows]

Hi ista I like the fakir angle for champion chase but I do think the arkle could turn out to be a little weak on reflection, despite how clear they pulled clear.

A 20/1 shot winner in itself could support this as the winner PTKO was finishing amongst horses like al dander prior to this who IMO isn’t quite a grade 1 horse really. I have confidence fakir is better and does have more scope to improve but could get found out in open company next season along his way to Cheltenham,

I think the most likely winner CPS and if he turns up fit on the day he is the one to beat and don’t think fakir would improve enough to beat him both in their days.

I think fakir could reverse form with PTKO but you’re hoping CPS gets injured again before 25/1 looks really good value!

[Run4Home]

Agree with a lot of what is said above
But I think its all about Chacun
If he makes it he wins in my opinion.
Have been in Willies to see him and he is special, won't go into detail but have seen him in work against top quality horses giving weight away at home and doing something you wouldn't believe.
'He's fragile' total bull from people who don't know
Winner in 2021 at 5 or 6 /1 I'll take!

[Outlaw]

Crowley no one here is disputing his ability he would have another 3/4 G1 wins if not for being Fragile/unlucky,call it what we like he's one or the other to have run so infrequently & Patrick himself has referred to him as the former & Willie the later in interviews before.

[Faugheen_Machine]

.
'He's fragile' total bull from people who don't know

He has only ran four times in 3 and a half years ago there must have been a problem at some point. The Champion Chase withdrawal was just bad timing though as he'd likely have been ok to run 48 hours later.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

He has only ran four times in 3 and a half years ago there must have been a problem at some point. The Champion Chase withdrawal was just bad timing though as he'd likely have been ok to run 48 hours later.

That was so gutting as was really looking forward to watching him race on Wednesday morning. He wasn’t a huge winner for me but thought there was the potential for a really electric and exciting performance

[The King Pimm]

Does anyone know how Politilogues winning time compared to previous years?