2021 Champion Chase - have bookies got this wrong ?

[Istabraq]

Very early to be dissecting a race so far out but having taken a strong view I keep re-visiting the race to see if, and where, I'm going wrong, and I keep coming back to the conclusion that I'm not wrong so I need to enlist the help of fellow forumites.

Current best prices 1/5/20:

Chacun Pour Soi 5/1
Altior 8/1
Defi du Seuil 14/1
A Plus Tard 16/1
Put The Kettle On 20/1
Politologue 20/1
Min 25/1
Fakir D'oudaries 25/1
Melon 25/1
Notebook 33/1
Le Richebourg 33/1

Having delved into each renewal since foot and mouth, of the 18 Arkle winners 10 have gone on to compete the following years Champion Chase with 6 winning, 3 were runners up and Douvan suffering mid race injury at 2/9 and fading to 7th in Special Tiara's win.
Of the 9 who did not take up the Champion Chase, 3 did not run at the festival, 5 contested the Ryanair and My Way de Solzen went to the Stayers.

It's also worth remembering that during this period there were several multiple winners of the Champion Chase, Moscow Flyer, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded and Altior.
The quality of these champions accounted for the defeats of Well Chief and Un des Sceaux, both finishing second.

This confirms Arkle winners have an outstanding record when contesting the following years Champion Chase and gives Put the Kettle On and Arkle runer up, Fakir Doudaires, outstanding chances.

Chacum Pour Soi 5/1
Four lifetime runs, beat Defi de Seuil at a fast ground Punchestown in 2019, subsequently well beaten by A Plus Tard over an inadequate 2m 1f at Leopardstown.
Talented by 5/1 offers no value

Altior 8/1
One of the best racehorses in history, 19 consecutive victories tells its' own story, Supreme, Arkle and double Champion Chase winner, some believe has been regressing for a while and will be an 11yo come raceday, has also developed a habit of niggling injuries

Defi de Seuil 14/1
Beaten out of sight in the worst renewal I can recall having won a series of sub-standard G1s during the season, the 2m project backfired and I'd expect this one to step back up in trip

A Plus Tard 16/1
Impressive winner of the 2m 4f nov 'cap chase on day one but defeats thereafter confirmed the horse is not a 2 miler or 3 miler, not beaten far in the Ryanair and would expect that to be target next season too

Politilogue 20/1
Won the worst renewal in memory after a series of poor performances in G1 company, will be a 10yo next year and would not be top 3 material in a standard year

Put the Kettle On 20/1
Put together series of chase wins last Summer which clearly gave her good experience which she put to full use when winning a G2 at the November meeting beating a small but strong field.
Improve further to win the Arkle when neater jumping was the difference over the winner.
I've heard talk of a Mares chase for this one, but not convinced the reigning G1 Arkle winner is likely to have a long term target of a G2 chase

Min 25/1
Winner of the Ryanair, 10yo must surely be heading back to defend his crown ?

Melon 25/1
Not the pace to win over 2m, ran a blinder in an exceptional Marsh and not expected to be seen over 2m again

Fakir D'oudaries 25/1
4th in a Supreme at a rare 4yo in just third start, got very close to triumph winner Pentland Hills at Aintree before sent chasing early. Comfortable wins over the likes of Melon, Ronald Pump and Borrows Saint confirmed potential before tactics did for him against Notebook at Christmas.
Beaten 1.5l in the Arkle by a more experienced horse when arguably a better jump 2 out would have landed him the prize, the pair coming a mile clear of some very good horses.
Will be just 6 come March and has an outstanding career ahead of him

Notebook 33/1
Loses his races in the preliminaries, if they can sort his head out he is a talent but gets far too worked up, simply can't back this one until 30 seconds from the off and even then a false start could scupper his chances

Le Richebourg 33/1
Another very talented horse but missed the last two festivals and not seen on a racecourse since Christmas 2018.
One poor visit to the festival running down the field in the 2018 County.

So in summary and looking at the (current) market, I can't help thinking the prices are wrong, to me it looks as if the 2021 Champion Chase is being priced up on 2018/2019 form.
I've taken a very strong view on Fakir Doudaries as the one with more untapped potential but have been, and will continue to, back Put the Kettle On too.

What am I missing when the two strongest bets are 20/1 and 25/1 ?

[Eggs]

...I really like Fakir, only slight doubt I have is whether it might be stepped up in trip.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

...I really like Fakir, only slight doubt I have is whether it might be stepped up in trip.

Same for me, but he will definitely be going in my book for this race sooner rather than later as this looks more winnable with the Ryanair potentially being oversubscribed.

Other small nagging doubt, is that he kept just missing out in the novice events as a result of being a year younger. This is of course why many think there is more to come. I definitely agree with this but wondering if we will see the best of him in two seasons time and as a youngster in Open company he’ll end up placing again, which would be decent of course for connections. Have there been any examples of these youngsters finally hitting first in a championship race in their first season of open company?

[Istabraq]

Who, among that list, has stronger crudentials ?
The winner has to come from that 11...

[Priceiskey]

Same for me, but he will definitely be going in my book for this race sooner rather than later as this looks more winnable with the Ryanair potentially being oversubscribed.

Other small nagging doubt, is that he kept just missing out in the novice events as a result of being a year younger. This is of course why many think there is more to come. I definitely agree with this but wondering if we will see the best of him in two seasons time and as a youngster in Open company he’ll end up placing again, which would be decent of course for connections. Have there been any examples of these youngsters finally hitting first in a championship race in their first season of open company?

Master minded won it at 5. But he was a freak.

[archie]

If Fakir's that price it's because the money that matters isn't down yet. The people that matter will almost certainly wait until NH racing restarts so if you really want to get in early I'd be monitoring the PP prices for Defi, Fakir and Le Richebourg. Fakir's only G1 was at 2m4f so it's no gimme that he'll be JP's choice for the Champion Chase especially as Defi and Le Richebourg have won G1s at or around 2m..

[BigChaang]

One of the first horses i backed Ista , after this year's festival.
And i would like to see Fakir D go to the champion chase.
The only thing that put's me off slightly now is.
In the Phillip Hobbs interview - r.post 29th april.
He say's he think's Defi will take the same route this year.
Next year . Obviously the final decision will be J.P.Mcmanus's.
So i'll probably hold off till something clearer is mentioned.

[Istabraq]

In the Phillip Hobbs interview - r.post 29th april.
He say's he think's Defi will take the same route this year..

There is a small risk Fakir heads to the Ryanair but he doesn't strike me as needing an obvious step up in trip.
JP has never had an issue with running multiple horses against each other so even if Defi were to target the Champion Chase there's every chance Fakir would join him - JP of course still hasn't won the race so I'm sure wouldn't bat an eyelid at firing a few darts at the race.

Defi won some weak 2m G1s last season and nothing came from the post mortem on his running, on the speedy Old Course he just doesn't have the pace for me over 2m, the Ryanair looks a much better option for him...

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'm rowing in behind you with this one Ista. Watched the Arkle back again today and I honestly didn't realise how hard he hit the 2nd last.

[kinloch brae]

I believe Put The Kettle won the Arkle fair and square. She might be slightly underestimated (and going forward I would certainly take her over a horse who has now come up short twice at the Festival) but I doubt this year's Arkle was above average. Consequently, I don't think the bookmakers are a long way out.

[Eggs]

If Fakir's that price it's because the money that matters isn't down yet. The people that matter will almost certainly wait until NH racing restarts so if you really want to get in early I'd be monitoring the PP prices for Defi, Fakir and Le Richebourg. Fakir's only G1 was at 2m4f so it's no gimme that he'll be JP's choice for the Champion Chase especially as Defi and Le Richebourg have won G1s at or around 2m..

....good point about PP. I notice they are sitting on the fence with Fakir, quoting 14-1 for both the CC and Ryanair. It’s why I think 14-1 (without boost) is an attractive ‘any race’ price with Hills. I’ve been chucking that in plenty of multiples.

[Istabraq]

I believe Put The Kettle won the Arkle fair and square. She might be slightly underestimated (and going forward I would certainly take her over a horse who has now come up short twice at the Festival) but I doubt this year's Arkle was above average. Consequently, I don't think the bookmakers are a long way out.

I’m looking for someone to prove my thinking is wrong so I’m pleased you’ve offered at alternative opinion, but I’m intrigued why you feel this years Arkle was not above average.
The 3rd and 4th were rated 157 and 156 and 20 lengths behind the front two, I could live with one of those not running his race but for them to finish upsides and be so closely rated they have to have run their race, and that has to put the front two on exceptional marks for novices.
I’m sure updated ratings are out there but I haven’t come across them...

[YoungHustler]

There's too many ifs and buts at the moment for me in this race. I would take Fakir over PTKO as feel that PTKO had the perfect race in the Arkle and she would need the same and more to win next year. Notebook didn't run his race and it will be interesting to see how he fares against Fakir the next time they face.
Chacun was unlucky to have an abscess on the morning of this year's race which isn't a serious injury. Defi just wasn't right on the day and would have won easily if repeating any of his previous form. Will he stay at 2m or go up in trip? Who knows but if he wins all the top 2m races in England before Cheltenham again they'll probably keep him at 2m. Would this mean that Fakir then step up in trip? I would not give up on an 11 year old Altior either until he really runs a bad race. Will APT run in this race? I don't think he ran his race either this year as connections appeared to be bitterly disappointed with his close 3rd. The owners have Allaho who would probably prefer not to have 2 in the Ryanair so will APT go down in trip or Allaho go for the GC?

[Istabraq]

Chacun is obviously a talent but since his Auteuil debut in 2015 he’s been to a racecourse four times so is clearly fragile, and this is the 5/1 fav.
On fitness history he’d be almost that price to make the race for me....

[Outlaw]

Ista i wouldn't be using the 3rd & 4th ratings too literally in this instance purely because the ratings they have each achieved outside of Chelt esp Global Citizen(beaten 20L min in 3 runs on undulating tracks now flat track bully potentially) doesn't quite stack.Rogue Vif i can't say doesn't act on a undulating track given he has won at Warwick and Kelso, but it's clear both horses are 2m speed balls and IMO the Rprs assigned to both circa mid 140s and 10lb lower than their actual rating are more accurate and the 159(PTKO)165(Fakir) are too literal in regards to winning distances as both stay further than 2m and relished the test with the ground bringing there stamina to the fore IMO.

I do think the mare will continue to get underappreciated going forward in terms of price,i just can't envisage her mixing it with G1 horses in open company personally.