May Forum Yankee for 2021

[Priceiskey]

Tiger roll will have 1 target next season and it’s not at Cheltenham

Yes wouldn’t want to give him a hard race before a third tilt at the National.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'd go with the top 4 as written in your list, MoM.

It would just be trebles and the acca for me though. Little point in having them in small stakes doubles imo.

[BigChaang]

From your shortlist my picks would be:
Shishkin - assuming he goes Novice Chasing.
Envoi Allen - assuming the Marsh is the correct target.
Easysland - would be the most likely winner this far out.
Al Boum Photo - dual Gold Cup winner so impossible to not have him in the list.

Next best:
Epatante - very, very solid

This for me too , This yankee will be sorted by sunday morning

[archie]

No way in the world that Shishkin is the same value as Epatante at 4/1.

[Istabraq]

No way in the world that Shishkin is the same value as Epatante at 4/1.

This is your built in red flag on chasers archie ?

[EnvoyAllen]

Ok so my plan for this one is for it to be a ‘bankers yankee’. Like last year for a while we had one that was offering just over 3 time’s the profit for cashout on it for most of the season before the injuries eventually came.

I’d propose this to be a yankee for the most likely winners instead of the usual format of looking for the best value horses.

So horses like:
Shishkin
Envoi Allen
Easysland
Chacun Pour Soi
Epatante
Goshen
Honeysuckle
Benie Des Dieux
Al Boum Photo


Most likely to be 4 from those 9..

The Shishkin and Envoi double is very popular on here so finding two more to go with those for one month only seems fair.

It’s weird - you look at the selections here, nod to yourself, and think ‘Yep, there’s some good money to be made here off of the bookies...”

And then you take a little trip back to the festival 6 weeks ago and ask yourself this - There were 6 odds on favourites over the 4 days. How many won?

Remarkably, just the 1 - Envoi Allen

Benie Des Deuex, Tiger Roll, Defi Du Seuil, Paisley Park,Carefully Selected all losers.

Just go’s to show.......

[archie]

Chasers, new discipline and certainty of target, Isty.

Fudge factor for Shishkin about twice that for Epatante.

[Istabraq]

Chasers, new discipline and certainty of target, Isty.

Fudge factor for Shishkin about twice that for Epatante.

I think Shishkins target is clear enough but there is increased risk over larger obstacles.
Does he look a Marsh candidate to you/anyone ?

[archie]

I think Shishkins target is clear enough but there is increased risk over larger obstacles.
Does he look a Marsh candidate to you/anyone ?

He's won a PtP and over 2m3.5f over hurdles. Likely he'll be kept to 2m but no gimme so I'm only applying 1/3.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Chasers, new discipline and certainty of target, Isty.

Fudge factor for Shishkin about twice that for Epatante.

There's the potential Shishkin goes off 1/2, whereas Epatante will be 2/1.

I'd take 4/1 Shishkin over Epatante.

[archie]

There's the potential Shishkin goes off 1/2, whereas Epatante will be 2/1.

I'd take 4/1 Shishkin over Epatante.

Maybe by New Year. Not a chance right now.

My figures have Shishkin at 4/1 and Epatante at 1/1 to turn up in set races so you'd need all of your final prices to do better.

[EnvoyAllen]

Maybe by New Year. Not a chance right now.

My figures have Shishkin at 4/1 and Epatante at 1/1 to turn up in set races so you'd need all of your final prices to do better.

‘Archie’, I have a proposal to make to you. If you’re going to offer me 4/1 on Shishkin to a) have the Arkle as his target, and b) for Shishkin to make it to his March 16th target next year, as you are clearly suggesting, may I be the first in what I’m sure is a very long queue of punters, to ask you to open up and be the first ‘Fat Jockey’ bookmaker, and we can all start trading our cash with you?

If you’re offering 4/1 with your ‘terms and conditions’ with no mention of him even winning the Arkle, despite him only being offered at the same price and 7/2 with a a contingent of the market to actually win the event, I would love to visit your trading place, give you a fair amount of cash with a return of 4 times as much just to see Shishkin turn up at the Arkle, get lapped 10 times and eventually trot over the line just as the Champion Hurdle horses are parading in front of the grandstand an hour later.....

4/1 to start the Arkle??

I’m on. Please advise me further!!

[Joleg]

From your shortlist my picks would be:
Shishkin - assuming he goes Novice Chasing.
Envoi Allen - assuming the Marsh is the correct target.
Easysland - would be the most likely winner this far out.
Al Boum Photo - dual Gold Cup winner so impossible to not have him in the list.

Next best:
Epatante - very, very solid
Honeysuckle - target too much in doubt?
Benie Des Dieux - For the Mares Hurdle, but target and opposition not certain.

Would object to:
Goshen - being aimed at a flat target isn't and he shouldn't be fav in the market so definitely not a banker.
Chacun Pour Soi - too injury prone to be an ante post selection.

This for me

[Faugheen_Machine]

‘Archie’, I have a proposal to make to you. If you’re going to offer me 4/1 on Shishkin to a) have the Arkle as his target, and b) for Shishkin to make it to his March 16th target next year, as you are clearly suggesting, may I be the first in what I’m sure is a very long queue of punters, to ask you to open up and be the first ‘Fat Jockey’ bookmaker, and we can all start trading our cash with you?

If you’re offering 4/1 with your ‘terms and conditions’ with no mention of him even winning the Arkle, despite him only being offered at the same price and 7/2 with a a contingent of the market to actually win the event, I would love to visit your trading place, give you a fair amount of cash with a return of 4 times as much just to see Shishkin turn up at the Arkle, get lapped 10 times and eventually trot over the line just as the Champion Hurdle horses are parading in front of the grandstand an hour later.....

4/1 to start the Arkle??

I’m on. Please advise me further!!

I think ArchieBet would be closed before March 2021

[EnvoyAllen]

There's the potential Shishkin goes off 1/2, whereas Epatante will be 2/1.

I'd take 4/1 Shishkin over Epatante.

Always an intriguing one this Mr Faugheen.

I think it’s fair to say the ‘fudge factor’ on Shishkin v Epatante is greater as we sit/lounge/mope here currently. That’s a given, I think most would agree.

And what makes it even more intriguing if you fast forward 46 weeks, you are absolutely on the money. Epatante’s price is highly unlikely to be much less than 2/1 for a Champion Hurdle given how competitive her field is likely to be, whereas Shishkin could potentially go off at 1/2 as the banker of the meeting, as this race duly throws up every couple of years, in a small generally uncompetitive field barring one potential superstar in the making.

Find the whole thing intriguing.