Antepost strategies

[Kevloaf]

Ah yes, evens rings a bell. That is where I got confused.


It'd be great if there was a science to it. If it was a hard and fast rule we could prove it'd highlight where horses are not as good as value as they're often perceived.


Will certainly help punters that don't go mob-handed in races too.

[Priceiskey]

Archie, I can't remember the answer to this question so apologies if you're repeating it.

Do you give every horse a 1/2 chance of making the festival?



Similarly, whats the workings behind that price?

It’s just a rough guide in my head. I’d say if I had ten bets now around 6 would make it. It differs every year but just got that as an average.

[Eggs]

....I just look for value. I don’t do ante-post singles under 14-1 and even that price is a rarity. Any lower prices I chuck in multiples. All my singles tend to be 2pts win, 1 pt place.

My aim is to have two or three fancied runners in each race at big prices, Shishkin @ 33-1 got me going nicely this year. I’ll have plenty of e/w doubles and the odd Trixie in my portfolio at small stakes but decent returns.

I’m retired so its a bit of fun for me. I obviously record my bets but i don’t set limits or keep accounts like the proper punters on here. The last 3 festivals have been fruitful, but it’s lots to do with joining FJ.

[Kevloaf]

It’s just a rough guide in my head. I’d say if I had ten bets now around 6 would make it. It differs every year but just got that as an average.

I've got the data from 2015 to 2020 with how many bets/horses/points I've lost in non runners and could work that out - but it'd take some actual time to pull anything meaningful from it, and 5 years would still be a relatively small sample set. Plus my approach changed quite dramatically within that time period.

So it's probably not going to be a worthwhile exercise.

[taylorch1990]

My method is still changing as this is only my 3rd proper ante post betting season. I do like to get most races covered by no more than 4 horses per race. Similar to others I won't back anything single figures in singles as I'd need to outlay too much to justify it. Based on this years results I'm sticking to doubles and singles for the time being and keeping my stakes to minimal amounts.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I remember imitating this exact conversation when I first joined 3 years ago as it seemed to me (and still does) a crucial component for judging antepost value. At the time I think (similar to the discussion today) we came up with a price of 1/3 - 1/4 to make the Festival at the start of the season. However, same as now it was based on gut feeling as much as anything which felt a bit unsatisfactory.

The thing is it’s just not that easy to calculate, even with your suggestion Kev, would your records not show non-runners who made the Festival but ended up in a different race.

One thing I’d throw out there is my gut says looking back to the start of last season I think the number of higher profile horses (at least) that made the Festival was nearer 80% so nearer 1/5 as opposed to 1/3. However I think this season was better/luckier than standard in that respect.

[EnvoyAllen]

Are you saying the 26.5/1 price I’ve took is a good one? Trying to work out your algorithm here Archie!

I'm well known for my caution. I've had no bets for 2021 so far and will hardly do any until NRNB apart from time limited free bets.

The old lags will know that I have a 'fudge factor' for ante post prices. This is an art rather than a science but includes factors for:

- how likely are they to make the Festival? Obviously the odds are shorter the closer we get but I'd certainly not have any horse shorter than evens this far out.

- have they missed previous Festivals through injury or not being thought good enough?

- how likely are they to go for a particular race?

- are they trying a new discipline ie. novices?

- are they going for a chase (more chance of falling/injury)?

There may be other things to consider but each of the above could factor in a price of 1/2 to 1/3 in an accumulator than gives the final fudge factor and they soon mount up. I'd have, for example, Shishkin and Envoy Allen both about 3/1 to line up for the nominated races. Not too bad on their own but that makes a 15/1 double reducing the value of a 27/1 bet to less than even money if you consider it as a treble.

1 @ 3/1 = 4
4 @ 3/1 = 16
16 @ 3/4 = 28

Now everyone will have their own factors that they consider and most won't even bother working them up to a price to make the Festival. That's perfectly fine. I'm just explaining why I think some horses/prices aren't for me rather than ridiculing anyone else for deciding to have the bet (Ballyadam excepted, of course ).

[Kevloaf]

I remember imitating this exact conversation when I first joined 3 years ago as it seemed to me (and still does) a crucial component for judging antepost value. At the time I think (similar to the discussion today) we came up with a price of 1/3 - 1/4 to make the Festival at the start of the season. However, same as now it was based on gut feeling as much as anything which felt a bit unsatisfactory.

The thing is it’s just not that easy to calculate, even with your suggestion Kev, would your records not show non-runners who made the Festival but ended up in a different race.

One thing I’d throw out there is my gut says looking back to the start of last season I think the number of higher profile horses (at least) that made the Festival was nearer 80% so nearer 1/5 as opposed to 1/3. However I think this season was better/luckier than standard in that respect.

It would but I'd be able to break that down as well - all the data is there. Just be hard to mine!

I know some got hit quite hard with non runners but in general I agree that last year was not the worst year for high profile horses in recent years! Altior and Chacun Pour Soi may have altered that though at the last minute.

I think my 'non runner' percentage was down - it was pretty much half what it was in 2018 from very similar stakes.

[Kautostar]

I think those of you that have access to accounts with cash out should have significantly less non runners than those who don’t. The addition of any race betting maybe sacrificing a few points should also save on non runners particularly in the novice divisions as they can be harder to predict where they will end up running.

[Quevega]

If you just look at the four championship races where the race choice is usually very narrow the stats for the last 10 years are as follows.

Champion Hurdle 6/10 returning champions
Champion Chase 6/10 returning champions
Gold Cup 6/10 returning champions
Stayers hurdle 4/10 returning champions (although this is one race where at least a couple went chasing) - More of that & Thistlecrack

So 6/4 they turn up is a fair assessment - But only if the race choice is virtually nailed on.

Gets more complicated after that.

[Quevega]

is it 6/4 or 4/6 ?

[archie]

Are you saying the 26.5/1 price I’ve took is a good one? Trying to work out your algorithm here Archie!

It's a good price if you think that the double will be shorter than 3/4 next March.

[archie]

I remember imitating this exact conversation when I first joined 3 years ago as it seemed to me (and still does) a crucial component for judging antepost value. At the time I think (similar to the discussion today) we came up with a price of 1/3 - 1/4 to make the Festival at the start of the season. However, same as now it was based on gut feeling as much as anything which felt a bit unsatisfactory.

The thing is it’s just not that easy to calculate, even with your suggestion Kev, would your records not show non-runners who made the Festival but ended up in a different race.

One thing I’d throw out there is my gut says looking back to the start of last season I think the number of higher profile horses (at least) that made the Festival was nearer 80% so nearer 1/5 as opposed to 1/3. However I think this season was better/luckier than standard in that respect.

Last year, I backed 9 horses before the start of November:
Klassical Dream
Chacun Pour Soi
Malone Road
Champagne Classic
Benie Des Dieux
Envoi Allen
Gypsy Island
Paisley Park
Hazel Hill

Got runs from 3 of them.

[Istabraq]

I think those of you that have access to accounts with cash out should have significantly less non runners than those who don’t. The addition of any race betting maybe sacrificing a few points should also save on non runners particularly in the novice divisions as they can be harder to predict where they will end up running.

Yeah I agree KS, not something I’ve ever been able to benefit from sadly but if I did I’m sure my NR loss would be considerably less...

[EnvoyAllen]

It's a good price if you think that the double will be shorter than 3/4 next March.

Archie, if the double equates at 3/4 by your calculations next March, both horses going off at 1/3 each would give a 78p profit margin on a level £1 stake, which is pretty much what your suggesting.
I wouldn’t necessarily think they’d go off at those prices, unless they destroy their fields during their first seasons chasing. I’d be realistically looking at a 4/7 for Shishkin in a smaller field which generally happens in an Arkle and maybe a 5/6 for Envoi Allen in the Marsh with a bigger field and potential of quality horses to be better with trainers considering them ‘Gold Cup’ quality, of course potentially.
You’d be looking at a double of around 2/1 ish.

Of course, all hypothetical, but if you’re gonna invest ante post, you’ve got to do your maths and work out the potential v risk v reward.

And everyone’s ideas of this are different to the next man or woman.