Antepost strategies

[Outlaw]

As the title suggests, now seems a good as time as any to discuss how you go about your wagers around those 4 magical days in March.It very much is a solo game punting, and we all go about it in different ways. There are plenty of things one punter does that will make another scoff & Vice versa. Yet there is no definitive right or wrong method, ultimately your P+L dictates your success, however you can argue the tangibility of how you make a bet is just as important.

Seemingly everyone on this forum makes money, from a few quid to several 1000's. Many on here are seasoned punters whilst a few are very much new to the antepost scene.It's tough at the best of times but sharing things you have learnt or giving perspective on your approach, could help others and maybe even give you chance to reflect on your own strategy.

Below are a few things you may wish to expand on how you go about things or better still mention things you think are unique/undervalued.

Selection/staking-
Do you build a book around a whole race with a traders type mentality, or do you prefer to back what you perceive to be value punts and be selective?

The amount you place on a horse is to achieve a fixed figure, or the figure you stake is derived from how much value you think you are getting?

Possibly you build around a horse you identify as a banker and double/perm everything with it?

Or are you one of the staunch disciplinarians who employ singles only religiously? if you are do you back win only irrespective of price,or e/w bets on a price threshold e.g 16/1>

Going even further into discipline,do you wait to see a novice (especially chase) have a run before getting involved?


Anticipations-
Perhaps you're a "surfer" and ride the big blue oddschecker waves with the dreaded FOMO riding high?

Race trials ,when horses are entered in certain races that you know winners historically go on to be graded winners/fez winners. Try to get them in the book before potentially winning said race.(Crimbo hurdle springs to mind with plenty anticipating Epatante last season)

Identify horses who in novice seasons you anticipate may have an easy time in small noncompetitive races and want to get on before they beat nothing and trimmed defensively.

Creature of habits those Trainers ! you might spot one under the radar on an similar paths to previous horses en route to a long term target especially hcap sorts.

Betting bank-
Do you have a separate bank to your day to day punting?

Rules on the maximum you are prepared to spend on a bet at various stages of the season?

[Istabraq]

Similar to the earlier thread, everyone will have different strategies that have been developed over the years.

For me I apply the following:

Cheltenham (and New/Old course) form is huge for me so I’ll always avoid a horse who has performed poorly previously.
Win only singles this far out
Happy to play each way in multi’s at this stage.
If hitting a single include the selection in a few multi’s while the price is there.
Only start backing ew (singles) when NRNB hits.
Focus on horses with (almost) certain targets unless you can get value in the any race market.
Never over expose on handicaps, always found it too easy to back half the field so wait until NRNB and keep stakes small.

[Quevega]

I too bet as a hobby, although one that I spend around 5-6 hours a day on.
My Bank in recent times has been in the region of 1000 points.
As a rough guide I'd stake around 5% of this on a decent Saturday's racing. And around 15% over a weeks racing.

But last year I'd probably only lost around 4% of my Bank in antepost losing/non runner bets.
But I had to work hard with cash outs and small/minimal exchange trades to get to that position.
My typical antepost bet was single wins of 1pt only (0.1% of my Bank)

I personally favour upping my stakes when the risks are reduced and more evidence is available to me, so NRNB and after declaration bets will have much bigger stakes. This seems much more logical for someone who is cautious but lacks discipline, and likes to have lots of bets on horses.

My antepost bets are largely small and designed to place me in position to make additional bets alongside any that actually stay the course.

There are many ways to win and lose at this game though,
But my strategy is based around not losing my kitty, and for someone who likes to bet a lot and lacks the discipline to bet less.
2pt bet would be a normal stake for me and occasionally will go 10pts plus when it seems right to do so.

On a Saturday with a few cards to go at I'd sometimes stake over 50pts but have in the region of 20-25 bets.
This is not good betting for most people but suits my Funding situation and lifestyle, the Bank I have and the spread of risk helps keep losses down, and any winnings gradual - when it's going reasonably well.


- Moved this from other thread as it explains a bit about my method, that I've touched on in the past.

No antepost bets so far for me for next year yet - Disciplined or what ?

Although I have now placed bets on races ran at racetracks I've never even heard of. - Poor discipline

[Istabraq]

4% loss on AP non runners is exceptional, remarkable success rate...

[Willdunn99]

I’ve only been betting on the Cheltenham festival for 4/5 years but with more success recently, but still a novice for sure!

A couple of points I follow,

I always bet singles, I find it hard enough to get one horse the festival and to actually win let alone 2 or 3 in the right combination.

I kind of build a book on a race covering a lot of horses but not the whole field. I always use my free bets to do the leg work on this before and at the start of the season.

I focus on races I’ve been particularly successful with before - which tends to be the chases and novice chases, RSA / Marsh / Arkle / Ryanair and strangely the ballymore is one I’ve had good luck with.

I mainly bet Win only, but this year with races where there’s likely to be a smaller field I’m going to try and go EW on all my bets - Arkle / RSA / Champion Chase

Regardless of odds I will try to stake to a 40 point Win for each horse.

Avoid handicaps at all costs until the NRNB.

I try my best not get involved with the Bumper race! Probably should do the same for the triumph hurdle, I don’t think I’ve ever picked the winner!

[Nortons who]

If you look at my Ante Post Bets Diary you will see that I have only placed a few bets already for next years Festival !

But seriously and to add a bit of context to my own situation, for many years I successfully followed and adapted the Clive Holt Fine Form betting system, with variable staking to return a set amount. When bookmakers removed betting tax my percentage net profit increased marginally year on year but over time I found very few longer priced winners and disliked lumping on to short priced favourites where the majority of my winners seemed to be coming from.

So I changed direction completely and started looking at Ante Post markets and the Cheltenham Festival in particular because some of the race markets in those days formed at least a few months before the Festival. By then I was already attending the Gold Cup so became drawn to the AP markets for the GC, Stayers Hurdle (used to be run on the Friday) and the Truimph Hurdle.

When Betfair was born I took a healthy interest in trading the Gold Cup, since in practice that is the only Chetenham market which* in my opinion has sufficient depth and volatility to trade more than 6 months out.

Maybe surprisingly but the only serious horse racing bets I have placed over the last 20 years have been on the Chelteham Festival, which means that I focus on those 4 days probably more than most. Its possibly an unhealthy fixation insofar as many much better betting propositions outside of the Cheltenham Festival probably go astray but that's the way it is for me now and I enjoy living the Festival for a full 12 months, rather than just the 4 days.

So my strategy as outlined in my Diary is all about building a solid book per race,* taking advantage of early prices and in recent years backing far more horses in the TWAR market, to take out the guesswork of which races selections will end up in.

In past years I have usually placed around 25 % of my bets numerically by the end of April for the following Cheltenham festival but as a* % of total outlay this is much higher in the 40-50% range due to my staking plan / target returns from the Gold Cup.

I have placed more single Win bets this year to date than previously for 2 reasons:

1). There are substantially more horses available this year in the TWAR market.

2). I have usually waited at least until after Aintree before placing bets on chasers in case they are injured or perform badly, especially if running at Aintree when the gap is only 3 weeks after Cheltenham. Similarly I have waited until after Punchestown before backing some of the Irish horses.

This year, I took the view immediately after Cheltenham that both Aintree and Punchestown would not be going ahead and decided I would get on early with as many of the well fancied selections as possible. IMO in the absence of any actual races ther prices will gradually contract throughout the Summer as more punters latch on to them.

[EnvoyAllen]

I’ve taken, even 11 months out, trying to deduce as much as is possible with instinct/trainer & jockey quotes/value for the selection ante post, the view that Shishkin to go to and win the Arkle and Envoi Allen to go to and win the Marsh is the only bets I’ll be looking to place. I’ve placed a considerable three figure bet on the double so far at odds of 26.5 / 1.

I understand fully the inherent risks involved at such an early stage. Two things stand out for me when I considered my financial investiture on these two.

Firstly, they are likely to shorten throughout the Summer as people gradually nibble at them as the horses graze.

Secondly, (and the hope your instinct, interpretation and tiny bit of luck all need to hand in hand....), there’s a reasonable chance, with all the information we as punters currently have on their intended targets and past performances, that both these horses might well end up odds on come the day. It’s quite the possibility. And so I’m fully prepared, risk abound, to go for it and say to myself ‘“If Shishkin and Envoi Allen were running tomorrow, would they win their races, if their careers progressed on the level they’ve so far shown?”

And you’d be hard pushed to find a punter who would suggest they know a horse, and a novice at that, who could beat them.

It’s only my opinion, and it’s why we bet and take our chance. And it’s why I’ve invested a very considerable sum to find out in 11 months time if my hunch proves a valid one.

At the very least, I believe (if both horses novice chasing careers begin well) I might have a half decent cash out on the eve of Cheltenham.

But my thought process will be completely different from the next man or woman. The Shishkin @ Arkle /Envoi Allen @ Marsh double for me, is where I’m investing.

[Priceiskey]

I like this post outlaw. Plenty of options available and like many say, there’s no real right or wrong way.
I usually try to find a horse that is certain to run in a specific race, has previous course form and is a big enough price, for my main selections. I don’t want to be tying up a big amount on something that is a short price this far out. I’d prefer to put your shorty’s (Shiskin,Envoi,Epatante) in doubles and the odd little trebles, than plough in all year and it gets pulled out the week before. Santini was a big value bet for me last year as it was certain to go for the race and it was 25/1 after the Rsa. As I thought the Rsa was very strong that year and the scope and size of him, with the fact his prep was far from ideal I predicted him improving again and becoming a big Gold Cup player. Unfortunately he didn’t quite do it but that’s the kind of strategy I go for. Another big one of mine was Shantou Flyer in the Foxhunters. I thought he could reverse the form with Hazel Hill this year as Hazel Hill had a gruelling race at the Cheltenham Foxhunter meeting and being 12 this year he was worth taking on. It’s the first time I had ever got involved in the foxhunters ante post but I didn’t rate any of the current opposition and saw Shantou as a definite runner who absolutely loves Cheltenham a solid bet at 16/1. He was 16/1 for around 6 months and only shortened up after bolting up at fakenham a month before. He got clipped to around 10/1 before opening up at 15/2 on the day before getting smashed off the boards late and going off 3/1 fav. He finished 3rd after chasing a real strong gallop throughout so I grabbed some decent place money, but the shock winner done it impressively.
I think guessing races is a dangerous game. I got burnt this year on Allaho for Marsh but as he was 33/1 I had to take the chance. If the price is big enough value it’s worth the risk but if not I’d wait for quotes and even they can go wrong.

[Priceiskey]

Also I don’t ever build a book on a certain race. I think the max I’ve ever backed in one race is four. I’d rather lay a horse on the day if I felt it was worth doing.
I’m not a blue surfer on oddschecker, I try to get on before the surfing starts.
I like key trials and certain trends.
Knowing trainer habits is another good angle.

[Quevega]

4% loss on AP non runners is exceptional, remarkable success rate...

Not really.
I did do quite well managing the losses.
But the 4% is of my average bank for the year - so approx 40pts vs a 1000pts bank available.
I think by the time the festival started I probably had in the region of 250-300 pts running.
So it reflects more on the fact that I do not play heavily in the antepost market, in terms of risking my Bank.

Just checked my diary and antepost losses were 41pts, so 4% of my Bank.
And with bets placed during the week and non runner no bets cancelled off I ended up risking 396 pts.
So no more than 40% of my betting bank was bet on cheltenham in the end.

[archie]

I'm well known for my caution. I've had no bets for 2021 so far and will hardly do any until NRNB apart from time limited free bets.

The old lags will know that I have a 'fudge factor' for ante post prices. This is an art rather than a science but includes factors for:

- how likely are they to make the Festival? Obviously the odds are shorter the closer we get but I'd certainly not have any horse shorter than evens this far out.

- have they missed previous Festivals through injury or not being thought good enough?

- how likely are they to go for a particular race?

- are they trying a new discipline ie. novices?

- are they going for a chase (more chance of falling/injury)?

There may be other things to consider but each of the above could factor in a price of 1/2 to 1/3 in an accumulator than gives the final fudge factor and they soon mount up. I'd have, for example, Shishkin and Envoy Allen both about 3/1 to line up for the nominated races. Not too bad on their own but that makes a 15/1 double reducing the value of a 27/1 bet to less than even money if you consider it as a treble.

1 @ 3/1 = 4
4 @ 3/1 = 16
16 @ 3/4 = 28

Now everyone will have their own factors that they consider and most won't even bother working them up to a price to make the Festival. That's perfectly fine. I'm just explaining why I think some horses/prices aren't for me rather than ridiculing anyone else for deciding to have the bet (Ballyadam excepted, of course ).

[Priceiskey]

I'm well known for my caution. I've had no bets for 2021 so far and will hardly do any until NRNB apart from time limited free bets.

The old lags will know that I have a 'fudge factor' for ante post prices. This is an art rather than a science but includes factors for:

- how likely are they to make the Festival? Obviously the odds shorter the closer we get but I'd certainly not have any horse shorter than evens this far out.

- have they missed previous Festivals through injury or not being thought good enough?

- how likely are they to go for a particular race?

- are they trying a new discipline ie. novices?

- are they going for a chase (more chance of falling/injury)?

There may be other things to consider but each of the above could factor in a price of 1/2 to 1/3 in an accumulator than gives the final fudge factor and they soon mount up. I'd have, for example, Shishkin and Envoy Allen both about 3/1 to line up for the nominated races. Not too bad on their own but that makes a 15/1 double reducing the value of a 27/1 bet to less than even money if you consider it as a treble.

1 @ 3/1 = 4
4 @ 3/1 = 16
16 @ 3/4 = 28

Now everyone will have their own factors that they consider and most won't even bother working them up to a price to make the Festival. That's perfectly fine. I'm just explaining why I think some horses/prices aren't for me rather than ridiculing anyone else for deciding to have the bet (Ballyadam excepted, of course ).

Agree I usually make it around 1/2 they turn up.

[Kevloaf]

Archie, I can't remember the answer to this question so apologies if you're repeating it.

Do you give every horse a 1/2 chance of making the festival?

Agree I usually make it around 1/2 they turn up.

Similarly, whats the workings behind that price?

[archie]

Agree I usually make it around 1/2 they turn up.

I think that you can reasonably look to shorten the price once they are back in full training - October?

[archie]

Archie, I can't remember the answer to this question so apologies if you're repeating it.

Do you give every horse a 1/2 chance of making the Festival?

Evens actually but as a starting point for other factors and this far out, yes.

Last October I had hopes of 3 or 4 runners in March but only Kemboy got there.