Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

[Bigfish]

Everyone will be pleased to know I have a slide rule that I use for my own charts. Fortunately I was smart enough to laminate them too.

After jiggling one around over the other for the last half an hour or so, I used my abacus and came out with 152 for Metier today.

If Metier turns up against Ballyadam he’d finish 3L ahead of him.

My Missus had a good laugh at that Spectre and now she likes you.

[HoldenTheReins]

Added Sir Gerhard Supreme @ 110

Certainly a nice price to have if he does go hurdling. Worth a little dabble at that price for sure.

[OverTheLast]

I wonder if Blue Lord has a chance here for Willie?

Won well first up, whenever his novice hurdlers all seemed to need and come on for a run. Patrick talked him up for the future novices at Leopardstown about 2 weeks before the race, but he never took his entry. I'm wondering if he could be Willie's Moscow Flyer horse? Spectre we were looking for Mullins' random' horse last night for this .. we could have forgotten about this lad.

[Saxon Warrior]

STATTLER is my Albert Bartlett horse.

From the Maiden when he was a close 3rd to Fantasio D'Alene and Vanillier.

I thought that could be key Maiden race form, and it looks all the better since.

He has the same sire as Monkfish and the same damsire as Monkfish and to me he is a Graded class 3M Novice Hurdler this season.

20/1 could look generous after one more run, up in class.

GAILLARD DU MESNIL is my pick from Willies for the Ballymore, he looked all class stepped out in trip, and he left his bumper and hurdles form behind last weekend.
I would expect to see him in a Graded race next time maybe even the 2M6F Grade 1 at the DRF.

16/1 now, and along with BOB OLINGER are my two picks for the mid-trips, they could clash at the DRF.

[charlie]

Where are you getting those odds?

Betfair exchange.

Don't get me wrong, he's very unlikely to end up over hurdles this season, I just thought 100's+ for a small stake on a horse of his ability was worth it.

CPS have gone from being mob handed in the Supreme to favourites falling away one by one. Malone Road looks ordinary, Ferny Hollow is injured, and Ballyadam is looking more and more like a busted flush. Obviously nobody gets tired of Cheltenham winners, but the bumper is the bumper and CPS may feel it's a case of been there, done that. Unlike Envoi Allen and Ferny Hollow, Sir Gerhard is 6 now and was ready for bumpers last year but for Covid fucking things up - Codd was very keen to press the point post Navan that he's really strong and forward this year because of that delay.

Gordon has 6 CPS runners, with 3 having realistic Cheltenham chances IMO. He looks set to deliver them a winner in Envoi Allen, and I think Gordon might be tempted to take the risk with SG, especially if Ballyadam disappoints again. Despite winning 2 of the last 4 bumpers (and sending a shit load of runners), Gordon doesn't hold the bumper in high regard, and he has a very smart bumper horse in Hollow Games who 'could be something very special', that he may want to keep apart from SG. Hollow Games is 2/2 with some very good form in the book. Were SG removed from the market I'm fairly sure he'd be half the price.

I watched the Jamie Codd interview post Navan and he said (unprompted) 'I'd imagine he'll probably remain in bumpers this year and then maybe kick on next year over hurdles'. He doesn't mean a 2020/2021 split, he's talking seasons just to avoid confusion, but the language was interesting because it was non-committal when it should be obvious all roads lead to the bumper. Similarly, when Chris Richardson was asked in December about future plans for Sir Gerhard he said 'we’ll probably follow the same route' (as Envoi Allen).

Who knows. I'm probably pissing in the wind here but there's something in the language surrounding this horse from connections that doesn't leave me thoroughly convinced all roads lead to the bumper (even though I know Gordon has said this could be our bumper horse and its by far the most likely).

[Skysthelimit]

The one horse from today I'd be most interested in for Cheltenham was Gentlemansgame. Looked a really nice type. Nice to see Mouse with a couple of exciting young horses again. Cost the right money and will watch him next time before getting him onside.

Gentlemansgame won impressively today and looks a really nice prospect, he's a very striking grey. The comments after the race suggest they see him more as a chaser and he's from the same sire as Easysland and the owner's Kerry National winner (Poker Party). He might be one for next year as a novice chaser over a longer trip. I agree it's worth waiting for an entry before getting involved with him this year.

[Skysthelimit]

STATTLER is my Albert Bartlett horse.

From the Maiden when he was a close 3rd to Fantasio D'Alene and Vanillier.

I thought that could be key Maiden race form, and it looks all the better since.

He has the same sire as Monkfish and the same damsire as Monkfish and to me he is a Graded class 3M Novice Hurdler this season.

20/1 could look generous after one more run, up in class.

GAILLARD DU MESNIL is my pick from Willies for the Ballymore, he looked all class stepped out in trip, and he left his bumper and hurdles form behind last weekend.
I would expect to see him in a Graded race next time maybe even the 2M6F Grade 1 at the DRF.

16/1 now, and along with BOB OLINGER are my two picks for the mid-trips, they could clash at the DRF.

Mullins confirmed in an interview after his win that Stattler will be stepped up in trip. The way he stayed on at the finish in his first race suggests a longer trip will suit and I really like him as well.

[Saxon Warrior]

Mullins confirmed in an interview after his win that Stattler will be stepped up in trip. The way he stayed on at the finish in his first race suggests a longer trip will suit and I really like him as well.

Hopefully “Monkfish v2”.

[ComplyOrDie]

STATTLER is my Albert Bartlett horse.

From the Maiden when he was a close 3rd to Fantasio D'Alene and Vanillier.

I thought that could be key Maiden race form, and it looks all the better since.

He has the same sire as Monkfish and the same damsire as Monkfish and to me he is a Graded class 3M Novice Hurdler this season.

20/1 could look generous after one more run, up in class.

Yeah, one I've been keen on for some time, though played the any race market with him as I wasn't sure if he'd be Bartlett or something like the Martin Pipe.

He's a decent return for me should he win wherever he turns up, so here's hoping

[Spectre]

I wonder if Blue Lord has a chance here for Willie?

Won well first up, whenever his novice hurdlers all seemed to need and come on for a run. Patrick talked him up for the future novices at Leopardstown about 2 weeks before the race, but he never took his entry. I'm wondering if he could be Willie's Moscow Flyer horse? Spectre we were looking for Mullins' random' horse last night for this .. we could have forgotten about this lad.

Potentially OTL. I have him on a quickly diminishing shortlist of possibles. He's entered in the Lawlers over two and half next Sunday which would put you off getting him onside until you saw whether he took up that entry, or is saved for the DRF. Or indeed if he runs at all, as you'd have thought he'd have taken up a two mile entry at Christmas if he'd come out of his race at Punchestown well. A watching brief I think.

[Hurdles or chasing]

I've got a fair few of the to win any race doubles with William hill priced up and am hoping someone might be able to return the favour in getting two horses priced up with Bet365.

Ramillies - Supreme and Ballymore
Irascible - Albert Bartlett

[Birds Nest]

Mullins confirmed in an interview after his win that Stattler will be stepped up in trip. The way he stayed on at the finish in his first race suggests a longer trip will suit and I really like him as well.

Did he actually confirm the step up? The one i heard was. 'he can always step up in trip'

[somer1]

Added Sir Gerhard Supreme @ 110

Cant see it. Thought we would of heard something or been hurdling by now.

[charlie]

Cant see it. Thought we would of heard something or been hurdling by now.

Yeh its very unlikely, and highly speculative at best! But I'd say its the right price all things considered and I thought it worth mentioning

I agree, we probably should have heard something by now, but it's been a strange 12 months, to put it lightly. I'm taking the anything can happen approach

Personally, I think its a complete waste of a season to stick to bumpers with Sir Gerhard at 6 when he looked a natural over obstacles in his PTP, and is clearly very strong and well in himself due to the delay cause by Covid (a point Codd mentioned, plus we can see it). I know the Irish love bumpers and Gordon's won 2 of the last 4, but it's not an important race to Gordon (he's said as much), and I doubt the bumper would feature in the top 50 flat races CPS want to win in a year.

I also think there is a placing/ownership angle here too. Noel and Valerie Moran are investing a huge amount of faith and money in sending all their horses to Gordon, and unlike CPS, NH racing is their passion. My guess (and again this is all speculative here so can probably be ignored), is that Gordon knows he has a CPS winner in Envoi Allen, and one Cheltenham winner is a good return for them (they have other hopes with other trainers elsewhere). The Moran's on the other hand have 17 horses that are all with Gordon, and are pumping more and more money into the game. I think they will be far more important to Gordon and NH racing long term and he will be desperate to deliver them Cheltenham winners and keep the gravy train running. The Morans have a potentially very strong hand in the bumper with Hollow Game, and later we see 470k purchase Ginto. If he lives up to his reputation Gordon has a decision to make re what goes where.

Like I said, highly unlikely and lots of if's, but's and maybe's that probably don't merit much consideration at all.I thought explaining the thought process behind it might make me look a little less nuts

[Skysthelimit]

Did he actually confirm the step up? The one i heard was. 'he can always step up in trip'

‘He did that over 2.5 miles today on fresh ground, I think he wants another half mile and he won’t mind the ground being softer either. There’s a lot to look forward to with him over longer trips’.

This is what Willie told Gary O’Brien after racing. He also was very sweet on the second in the same race (Glens of Antrim) and said she was one to keep an eye on.

You obviously never know with Willie and he’ll probably be out over two miles next. I thought it was really good run and this together with how he stayed on in his first race and the interview led me to back him at 25/1 for AB. I think the 20/1 that is still available is a decent price.

The owner also has Crosshill who could go here and his form ties in with Stattler via Vanillier. Crosshill disappointed last time but surprisingly was dropped in trip after Jessie suggested a longer trip would suit.