Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

[Istabraq]

Im really struggling with the supreme now! !

I wouldn't beat yourself up Ray, as Spectre has said the winner may not yet have left their box.
14 weeks, much can change and as we said some months ago, the suspension of racing last March meant scores of high quality horses were denied the opportunity to make their debuts and it's entirely possible some of those have had setbacks, trainer hasn't found the right introduction, waiting for ground et..

[Spectre]

Between Christmas and the end of January is usually the time to start firming up opinions on the novice hurdles. Prior to that it's just about getting prices secured on likely types and getting out again quickly where you have to.

If anyone has found a way to nail an alternative antepost strategy I'd love to hear it. I always feel as though there's a better way but I've never figured it out.

[Silverbirch]

Very hard to knock Fernys form for the supreme if I'm honest...

[Kevloaf]

Very hard to knock Fernys form for the supreme if I'm honest...

Yeah but.... this game is more complicated than that isn't it?

Even though FH has decent form in the book so far (we think) the hurdles part hasn't really been tested yet?


I don't think Willie Mullins' Supreme horse usually comes from the Cheltenham bumper route either? Champagne Fever the only exception? Most of his better ones (Vautour, Douvan, Min, Melon etc) came from a different background?


Not saying Ferny Hollow isn't 'the one', 'can't win' or anything at all like that.... I'm just saying although you can't "knock" the form yet, there are more factors to consider.

[Leman14]

Not sure if he has had a mention, but interested to see Gallyhill out at some stage this week.
Cost ?450k and with Henderson
Entered over 2m1f at Cheltenham on Friday and 2m5f at Warwick on Saturday.

I backed Any Race a few months ago on the back of positive reports in both Mark Howard and Paul Ferguson's books.
Their comments suggest more likely to be a Ballymore/Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdler (and future staying chaser)

Still available at 33/1 for all three Novice Hurdles and 25/1 Any Race and one that COULD shorten dramatically.

Has anyone heard any more recent comments?

[FrenchHolly]

I think they’ve had a few over the years but not many. Esprit Du Large in the Arkle last year and Kings Odessy in the Plate previous. I think Evan will have a throw at a Festival race if he thinks the entry is worth it as he did with Silver Streak in the Churdle, he doesn’t appear the type of trainer whose obsessed with having runners at the Festival though so like Nicky Richards when he does send one they tend to be competitive.

High Chimes won the Kim Muir for them, only remember it as it was a good winner for me.

[Middle_Of_March]

That makes me feel sad.

There has to be better things to be doing that that


Then again, I've spent it watching football

Watching the exchange during the US election this year was bloody cracking entertainment Kev. At the end of cricket matches it can often be fascinating too. You can literally see the difference of opinion among layers.

Interesting anecdote from today (it’s not that interesting) that you might like... I backed a 7/2 fav tonight at Wolverhampton on the exchange in running at 68.0 as they turned for home and he was last but still travelling like a travelly thing. Can only imagine the layer thought that he was laying the other horse in similar colours who was midfield and treading water. Anyway.. my horse flew home when eventually getting a split and got beat a short head. Only had ?2.27 on at 68.0 but would’ve been a nice result nonetheless. The exchange is great to watch at times in these low grade all weather races. Can be very tempting with some lunatic prices at times to back the one out the back that’s still travelling because so often the front runners go off too quick and there a pace collapse. ATRs graphic showed the splits as ‘Fast’ for the entire race so I was happy backing the only one still on the bridle at that price with 3f still to run.

The bet obviously lost even though he led one stride after the line but I wanted to share because I know you live for a value loser..

[somer1]

Skybet has Holymacapony at 16/1 for the spuds race and still 20/1 to win any race

[kinloch brae]

Not sure if he has had a mention, but interested to see Gallyhill out at some stage this week.
Cost ?450k and with Henderson
Entered over 2m1f at Cheltenham on Friday and 2m5f at Warwick on Saturday.

I backed Any Race a few months ago on the back of positive reports in both Mark Howard and Paul Ferguson's books.
Their comments suggest more likely to be a Ballymore/Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdler (and future staying chaser)

Still available at 33/1 for all three Novice Hurdles and 25/1 Any Race and one that COULD shorten dramatically.

Has anyone heard any more recent comments?

It appears to be owned by Claudio Grech. Maybe he will do better under that guise.

Hopefully, for anyone who has punted him, he was the only good horse in that point. Given their lack of achievement you would have thought you would have been able to purchase the rest of the field for that price and still had plenty of change. It is one of those decent flat pedigrees that has changed codes but purely on the evidence of the point it looks about three times the price you might have expected. The second horse was sold at the same sale for 52,000. At this stage the seller looks to have done very well.

Have those writers ever given a negative report?

[jack1092]

Have those writers ever given a negative report?

Probably not, that would defeat the purpose of a horses to follow book?

[Leman14]

Have those writers ever given a negative report?

As Jack says, these are 40 to follow, not to avoid!

Naturally, the author is going to be positive about the horses that they have selected BUT they are also realistic. They don’t put up 40 Potential Grade 1 winners in waiting, often putting up slow burners or well-handicapped horses.

I bought both books for the first time this year (prefer OJA) and whilst they don’t form the basis of my betting strategy, I do take note of SOME horses that I wouldn’t have been aware of.
Many good horses don’t even get a mention, but Gallyhill get two mentions (in different sections) in each book with the Ballymore and Bartlett (and staying chasing) mentioned.

[Topofthegame2021]

Ferny hollow suspended in the Supreme market on 365...

[taylorch1990]

Cape Gentleman was hugely impressive there. Jumped really well apart from diving at one but always landed full of running. Only seems to be priced up with Unibet right now but hopefully more will price him up after today.

Edit 25s with Hills added.

[Spectre]

Ferny hollow suspended in the Supreme market on 365...

Presumably to investigate because they've had a run on cashout.

[harchibald]

Cape Gentleman was hugely impressive there....

Edit 25s with Hills added.

Yes I agree with that - which race do you think he'll be aimed at in Cheltenham?