Tweet
I watched the bumper again the other night too, wrote this but put it in the wrong thread as i'm a clown. Don't think mods can move it so may as well post it in its true home on 'Ferny Hollow Day'.
To answer a couple of the criticisms in the previous thread, i'm not looking hard for positives and give some strong negatives plus a little bit inbetween. Simply giving an honest assessment on how I see it, it's a game of opinions like few other! I wasn't a backer on the day and even now i've only got a 1pt TWAR bet down and a couple of very hopeful small stake multis. I also stand by what I say in that Fernys trip was far from ideal. I think the other claimed I was suggesting it's a vintage renewal which again, I clearly aren't! Anyway...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I re-watched the Ferny Hollow Champion Bumper earlier... A bit of a monkey at the very start of the race, held up at the rear for the first mile thereafter. Hard to tell from the camera angles, but seemed pretty determined throughout to do Paul Townends head in, never really settling - practically has to pull his head off at some points he's so keen to get on with it. Last half mile seems to look for trouble and gets a couple of big bumps along the way. More than enough excuses on offer if they were needed had it gone a different way, but he battles, runs on well and is still full of beans through the line.
Of the next 5 home, Appreciate It in 2nd came to this race off a very good win. Still to run this season but well thought of. The next 3 have since won over hurdles and Ocean Wind back in 6th has gone on to win a Cesarewitch.
Glancing Queen in 8th made her hurdles debut today and was a comfortable winner. She was 7 and a bit lengths behind Envoi Allen in the 2019 bumper, 22 1/2 in 2020.
In 10th and 24lengths off Ferny you have One True King who has also gone on to win over hurdles but most notably was a very close 2nd at Cheltenham last week in a handicap off top weight, to add to his 2nd at the same course in October.
After that you've got wins since from the 13th, 14th, 16th and 22nd placed horses.
On paper, the time is a slight worry. It's the slowest in the last 20 years (as far back as I looked), although only 4 were on ground described as soft, with 3 of those being the most recent renewals with the other back in 2002. (Timeform give 2002 as soft, RP and Sky give it GS?!)
Envoi Allen - 3m 55.6s (2019)
Pizarro - 4m 0.58s (2002, race was 23yards further)
Relegate - 4m 4.6s (2018)
Ferny Hollow - 4m 6.8s (2020)
Not great! But if we look at the hurdles races on the same day in each of those years, we can see in all cases the 2020 renewals were the slowest, 2019 the fastest:
Ballymore/Royal & Sun
City Island - 5m 6.6s (2019)
Samcro -5m 18.7s (2018, race was 26yards further)
Galileo (Pol) - 5m 19.56s (2002)
Envoi Allen - 5m 19.9s (2020)
Fred Winter/Boodles (2002 was Coral Cup over 2m 5f)
Band Of Outlaws - 3m 58.3s (2019)
Veneer Of Charm - 4m 10.8s (2018)
Aramax - 4m 13.1s (2020)
So what does this tell us? Firstly, that i'm bored and will do anything to avoid using my Zwift subscription. Secondly maybe not a lot, but given Ferny Hollow's run in the bumper was very much not ideal, there is plenty to like about the manner in which he went on to win it and whilst i'm not a timings nerd and generally don't pay massive amounts of attention to them in NH racing, it's hard to ignore that the comparative times across the examples given are very much in his favour. There's likely a ton of improvement to come just if they get him to settle.
The negatives for bumper winners going on to run in the Supreme or Ballymore are that since 2000, only 2 have gone on to win either: Champagne Fever (2013 Supreme) Envoi Allen (2020 Ballymore).
Only 5 others have even made the top 5: Ballyandy (3rd, '16 S), Cue Card, (4th, '11 S) Dunguib (3rd, '10 S) Cousin Vinny (5th, '09 S) and Pizarro (2nd '03 B).
Of the others that turned up to the following years festival (8 out of 19 didn't), none won any of the other races.
I picked a sample from the above top 5 finishers and started looking at winners that came from their Champion Bumpers, using the criteria of horses who'd won (any race) between then and the following years festival, including the 4 days themselves. I picked the Relegate bumper just to see if it offered any clues which as you can see, it didn't!
Envoi Allen - 9 from 13 rivals (69%)
Relegate - 14/22 (63.6%)
Champagne Fever - 9/19 (47.3%)
Ballyandy - 10/22 (45.5%)
Ferny Hollow - 10/22 (45.4%
In conclusion? Not really sure, but it killed some time!
To answer a couple of the criticisms in the previous thread, i'm not looking hard for positives and give some strong negatives plus a little bit inbetween. Simply giving an honest assessment on how I see it, it's a game of opinions like few other! I wasn't a backer on the day and even now i've only got a 1pt TWAR bet down and a couple of very hopeful small stake multis. I also stand by what I say in that Fernys trip was far from ideal. I think the other claimed I was suggesting it's a vintage renewal which again, I clearly aren't! Anyway...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I re-watched the Ferny Hollow Champion Bumper earlier... A bit of a monkey at the very start of the race, held up at the rear for the first mile thereafter. Hard to tell from the camera angles, but seemed pretty determined throughout to do Paul Townends head in, never really settling - practically has to pull his head off at some points he's so keen to get on with it. Last half mile seems to look for trouble and gets a couple of big bumps along the way. More than enough excuses on offer if they were needed had it gone a different way, but he battles, runs on well and is still full of beans through the line.
Of the next 5 home, Appreciate It in 2nd came to this race off a very good win. Still to run this season but well thought of. The next 3 have since won over hurdles and Ocean Wind back in 6th has gone on to win a Cesarewitch.
Glancing Queen in 8th made her hurdles debut today and was a comfortable winner. She was 7 and a bit lengths behind Envoi Allen in the 2019 bumper, 22 1/2 in 2020.
In 10th and 24lengths off Ferny you have One True King who has also gone on to win over hurdles but most notably was a very close 2nd at Cheltenham last week in a handicap off top weight, to add to his 2nd at the same course in October.
After that you've got wins since from the 13th, 14th, 16th and 22nd placed horses.
On paper, the time is a slight worry. It's the slowest in the last 20 years (as far back as I looked), although only 4 were on ground described as soft, with 3 of those being the most recent renewals with the other back in 2002. (Timeform give 2002 as soft, RP and Sky give it GS?!)
Envoi Allen - 3m 55.6s (2019)
Pizarro - 4m 0.58s (2002, race was 23yards further)
Relegate - 4m 4.6s (2018)
Ferny Hollow - 4m 6.8s (2020)
Not great! But if we look at the hurdles races on the same day in each of those years, we can see in all cases the 2020 renewals were the slowest, 2019 the fastest:
Ballymore/Royal & Sun
City Island - 5m 6.6s (2019)
Samcro -5m 18.7s (2018, race was 26yards further)
Galileo (Pol) - 5m 19.56s (2002)
Envoi Allen - 5m 19.9s (2020)
Fred Winter/Boodles (2002 was Coral Cup over 2m 5f)
Band Of Outlaws - 3m 58.3s (2019)
Veneer Of Charm - 4m 10.8s (2018)
Aramax - 4m 13.1s (2020)
So what does this tell us? Firstly, that i'm bored and will do anything to avoid using my Zwift subscription. Secondly maybe not a lot, but given Ferny Hollow's run in the bumper was very much not ideal, there is plenty to like about the manner in which he went on to win it and whilst i'm not a timings nerd and generally don't pay massive amounts of attention to them in NH racing, it's hard to ignore that the comparative times across the examples given are very much in his favour. There's likely a ton of improvement to come just if they get him to settle.
The negatives for bumper winners going on to run in the Supreme or Ballymore are that since 2000, only 2 have gone on to win either: Champagne Fever (2013 Supreme) Envoi Allen (2020 Ballymore).
Only 5 others have even made the top 5: Ballyandy (3rd, '16 S), Cue Card, (4th, '11 S) Dunguib (3rd, '10 S) Cousin Vinny (5th, '09 S) and Pizarro (2nd '03 B).
Of the others that turned up to the following years festival (8 out of 19 didn't), none won any of the other races.
I picked a sample from the above top 5 finishers and started looking at winners that came from their Champion Bumpers, using the criteria of horses who'd won (any race) between then and the following years festival, including the 4 days themselves. I picked the Relegate bumper just to see if it offered any clues which as you can see, it didn't!
Envoi Allen - 9 from 13 rivals (69%)
Relegate - 14/22 (63.6%)
Champagne Fever - 9/19 (47.3%)
Ballyandy - 10/22 (45.5%)
Ferny Hollow - 10/22 (45.4%
In conclusion? Not really sure, but it killed some time!
Comment