Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

[Quevega]

Him being 4th in the betting makes him worth chancing today then doesn't it?

I have anyway - maybe he's no good or one for next year like you say, but I'll pay to find out rather than just watch as his upside is a value bet today imo

I backed him today too, as Jackie has said he may be a sharper than the BigB

[JackieMoon33]

Him being 4th in the betting makes him worth chancing today then doesn't it?

I have anyway - maybe he's no good or one for next year like you say, but I'll pay to find out rather than just watch as his upside is a value bet today imo

I’m no odds compiler but I couldn’t see why the others were ahead of him in the betting other than experience. Certainly worth a little dabble for sure.

[darlojim]

Worth noting that tizzard isn't exactly firing atm so that may contribute to his price being possibly bigger than expected. Hasn't had a winner since 11th Oct with a fair few of his well beaten

[ComplyOrDie]

Worth noting that tizzard isn't exactly firing atm so that may contribute to his price being possibly bigger than expected. Hasn't had a winner since 11th Oct with a fair few of his well beaten

Whilst you may be right on this occasion, at some point he'll come into form, it only takes one race.

[archie]

Had Julie's Stowaway won yesterday we'd have had half the forum on saying how it franked Ballyadam (and the Champion Bumper) form.

Unfortunately, in going down by 2.75l to a well exposed sort he also finished a couple of lengths ahead of a horse who finished 19.5l behind Captain Kangaroo. Puts CK about 19l ahead of Ballyadam.

For the avoidance of doubt, a first run over hurdles is a standalone exercise and no more a reflection of bumper collateral than the runs of Eskylane and Third Time Lucki, particularly as we were robbed of several good spring bumpers.

[Lobos]

Had Julie's Stowaway won yesterday we'd have had half the forum on saying how it franked Ballyadam (and the Champion Bumper) form.

Unfortunately, in going down by 2.75l to a well exposed sort he also finished a couple of lengths ahead of a horse who finished 19.5l behind Captain Kangaroo. Puts CK about 19l ahead of Ballyadam.

For the avoidance of doubt, a first run over hurdles is a standalone exercise and no more a reflection of bumper collateral than the runs of Eskylane and Third Time Lucki, particularly as we were robbed of several good spring bumpers.

JS ran a super race in what was clearly an inadequate trip. Ran on to take a never nearer 3rd.

[archie]

JS ran a super race in what was clearly an inadequate trip. Ran on to take a never nearer 3rd.

He ran an adequate race against fair rivals. My point was that you can't use maiden hurdle form to go back to bumpers for collateral. The third in CK's bumper (8.75l adrift) has won his 2 hurdle races this season achieving 125 (OR) and 138 (RPR) but, while it's comforting for us, it really has no relevance for CK's hurdling career.

[JackieMoon33]

Whilst you may be right on this occasion, at some point he'll come into form, it only takes one race.

Hopefully he’s learnt from last season and will build them up gradually and be cherry ripe for the Festival.

[Lobos]

He ran an adequate race against fair rivals. My point was that you can't use maiden hurdle form to go back to bumpers for collateral. The third in CK's bumper (8.75l adrift) has won his 2 hurdle races this season achieving 125 (OR) and 138 (RPR) but, while it's comforting for us, it really has no relevance for CK's hurdling career.

Agree there is a huge difference between Bumper and Hurdle form but nonetheless, if horses keep coming out of certain Bumper races and winning, we can't simply ignore that surely. It must have some significance.

[archie]

Agree there is a huge difference between Bumper and Hurdle form but nonetheless, if horses keep coming out of certain Bumper races and winning, we can't simply ignore that surely. It must have some significance.

Depends on the races and the individual horses. Blue Sari comfortably beat Thyme Hill and Abacadabras and nearly got to Envoi Allen. She'd need pigeon post to contact them over hurdles. I'd say that only the first five home in last season's Champion Bumper have bright prospects of making their mark in graded hurdles but until we're into winter racing proper it's hard to predict with any certainty because of the covid interruption.

[jonthehammer]

Killer Kane on my radar as well and I will be hovering over the 50s during the race for the AB

[JackieMoon33]

Killer Kane on my radar as well and I will be hovering over the 50s during the race for the AB

What price is he for the Ballymore?
Tizzard seemed to dodge the AB with TBB last season and opted for the Ballymore, despite TBB turning out to need that trip. I’d be cautious he does not do the same here as he’ll be no doubt thinking about his long term chasing career. Also KK’s breeding would lead you to believe he may be a sharper type too.

[charlie]

What price is he for the Ballymore?
Tizzard seemed to dodge the AB with TBB last season and opted for the Ballymore, despite TBB turning out to need that trip. I’d be cautious he does not do the same here as he’ll be no doubt thinking about his long term chasing career. Also KK’s breeding would lead you to believe he may be a sharper type too.

I took 56/1 Hills.

[jonthehammer]

What price is he for the Ballymore?
Tizzard seemed to dodge the AB with TBB last season and opted for the Ballymore, despite TBB turning out to need that trip. I’d be cautious he does not do the same here as he’ll be no doubt thinking about his long term chasing career. Also KK’s breeding would lead you to believe he may be a sharper type too.

Yes good point, we all know what Tizzard is like
It was on the P2P dossier they mentioned the AB so I had that in mind firstly

[Run4Home]

Looked out paced at times and outstayed at the end, would look an AB horse to me rather than Ballymore long term. But on that run no betting proposition for now in regards to Chelt.