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Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021
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Anyone taking the mental prices about Ballyadam might like to reflect on the subsequent form of I Don't Get It, the horse that he beat by 18l showing himself to be 'the best bumper horse ever to go to Downpatrick'. That one has been beaten 39l, 36l and 34l in bumpers and 43l in his first hurdle race.
Ballyadam officially 19lb behind Ferny Hollow at this stage (141 - 122) is about right. Malone Road has missed the last two Festivals and should only be backed with free money.
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Originally posted by archie View PostAnyone taking the mental prices about Ballyadam might like to reflect on the subsequent form of I Don't Get It, the horse that he beat by 18l showing himself to be 'the best bumper horse ever to go to Downpatrick'. That one has been beaten 39l, 36l and 34l in bumpers and 43l in his first hurdle race.
Ballyadam officially 19lb behind Ferny Hollow at this stage (141 - 122) is about right. Malone Road has missed the last two Festivals and should only be backed with free money.
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Outside of the main bumper races throughout the season, there is a lot of garbage running in those other races each week and trying to take collateral form from them is almost a pointless exercise. I'm not defending the price on Ballyadam, but the race he won was pure muck and I would not expect any substance to come out of the race.
Does that mean he's not a good horse? No; it just means the field he beat was pony and until he's in a better race, we'll never know for sure.
And to show how well 'bad' bumpers can work out, Shishkin easily took apart his opponents in his only bumper win at Kempton. From 24 runs, no other horse from that field has won a race since and only two have placed. 114 is the highest rated hurdler that has achieved a mark since.Last edited by JackieMoon33; 21 September 2020, 11:07 AM.
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Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View PostOutside of the main bumper races throughout the season, there is a lot of garbage running in those other races each week and trying to take collateral form from them is almost a pointless exercise. I'm not defending the price on Ballyadam, but the race he won was pure muck and I would not expect any substance to come out of the race.
Does that mean he's not a good horse? No; it just means the field he beat was pony and until he's in a better race, we'll never know for sure.Last edited by archie; 21 September 2020, 11:19 AM.
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Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View PostI mean, with the exception of winning at the festival (of which we don't know how solid that form will be yet), you could say the same for Ferny Hollow also. Two defeats, then a win against a horse in 2nd who was beat 29 lengths and 6 lengths previously, and a horse in 3rd who was hammered by one you know well Archie, Captain Kangaroo, next time out.
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Originally posted by archie View PostAnyone taking the mental prices about Ballyadam might like to reflect on the subsequent form of I Don't Get It, the horse that he beat by 18l showing himself to be 'the best bumper horse ever to go to Downpatrick'. That one has been beaten 39l, 36l and 34l in bumpers and 43l in his first hurdle race.
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Originally posted by archie View PostAnyone taking the mental prices about Ballyadam might like to reflect on the subsequent form of I Don't Get It, the horse that he beat by 18l showing himself to be 'the best bumper horse ever to go to Downpatrick'. That one has been beaten 39l, 36l and 34l in bumpers and 43l in his first hurdle race.
Ballyadam officially 19lb behind Ferny Hollow at this stage (141 - 122) is about right. Malone Road has missed the last two Festivals and should only be backed with free money.
Even given her "good" ground over his yielding...she ran 2m2 in 4m7.3...Ballyadam ran 2m1 1/2 in 4m25.90
Obviously times are worth very little....but worth taking that into consideration even just a little.
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Originally posted by archie View PostThat's the point that I've been trying to make for months. Everyone who backs him is doing it on the word of the amateur jockey and we all know that jockeys are the worst tipsters. Patrick Mullins has ridden rather more good horses but his tipping is, at best, moderate.
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Originally posted by JackieMoon33 View PostI'm not sure people are backing him entirely on the word of an amateur jockey. Like all bumper horses, punters have to consider many angles (visuals, times, PtP form, sales price, trainer targets/habits, post race comments etc), especially when a bumper horse does not run at the big festivals. We all know that avoiding the Cheltenham bumper can often work out in a novice hurdlers favour so I have no problem backing noivce hurdlers that only won an egg and spoon bumper.
The obvious difference with Samcro was he then performed again in bumpers throughout the season, something Ballyadam hasn't been able to prove as of yet.Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 21 September 2020, 11:48 AM.
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Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View PostExactly, he wouldn't be the first horse to win a really poor bumper to go on to much better things. From most recently (that I can think of) many were saying the exact same thing about Samcro (for quite a long time as it happened, including some well thought of members on here), his bumper was rubbish, and he only recorded an RPR of 118, but that didn't end too bad at the festival the following season
The obvious difference with Samcro was he then performed again in bumpers throughout the season, something Ballyadam hasn't been able to prove as of yet.
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Originally posted by archie View PostFerny Hollow was beaten by good horses the first couple of times and slotted RPRs of 128 both times. His wins were 136 and 141. Ballyadam went from being beaten and recording 119 to winning at 122. As you well know, Captain Kangaroo recorded 127 in his only race (and Bob Olinger 135 ditto) but connections aren't going mad because, with Punchestown being abandonned, they simply don't know. All they do know is that, on the public form, Joey shouldn't be twice the price of Ballyadam.
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