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Interesting stuff as ever SW! Monkfish looks every inch a chaser and could indeed continue Willie's amazing run. At this stage the RSA looks like an absolute belter - roll on March 17th!
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CarefulOriginally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post
Of 7 Grade 1 Novice Hurdle winners for Willie in the last 9 seasons, 5 of them returned to win the next year, and Champagne Fever was beaten a nose from making it 6 out of 7. (Klassical Dream was the other one, Good job I didnt do this work a year ago then lump on him
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I'd hate to lose such a well regarded member
We don't discuss 'that' Arkle.Comment
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Following on to my response on the novice chase thread, and ignoring Goschen to focus on the all age Grade 1 novice hurdles it is a 7/2 chance that backing all three will make a profit.
The current prices are:
Shishkin 4/1
Envoi Allen 4/1
Monkfish 10/1
The combined average odds are 6/1 and therefore backing all three to max stakes is a no-brainer. The slight curve ball being Envoi Allen's target isn't guaranteed. I'm happy to suck it up though. It also suggests that it's worth taking the risk of injury on the chin for antepost betting.
It's probably that all three of the horses above will be below the target price of 7/2 in the new year, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if two of them go off at odds on. In other words you have to back them antepost to make a long term profit. And the earlier the better to maximize that profit.
It also illustrates how valuable these kinds of horses are in multiples. Particularly each way multiples where the odds of them placing in these three races is somewhere near evens.Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.Comment
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A novice hurdler which I am looking forward to see next season is Soaring Glory.
A Fame and Glory gelding, trained by Johnjo with an RPR of 130.
He has had 3 satisfactory bumper runs to date, and was beaten by Israel Champ on his last start.
40/1 Supreme
20/1 TWAR
If he fails to make the top grade, I could see him end up in the County.Comment
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I'd say Monkfish's target is the least set in stone of all 3?!Originally posted by Spectre View PostComment
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I think it would be a surprise if any of the three ended up in a different race Lobos.Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.Comment
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I know a bit was made of Willie saying that Monkfish might go to the Stayers Hurdle, but if you watch the interview he did seem a bit tongue in cheek, id be very surprised if that was the plan, wouldnt make a lot of sense staying over hurdles with him to my eye, looks every inch a chaser.Comment
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My thinking is TBG will deffo go RSA. For me that puts a small question mark against Monkfish going that route as well. The NHC is also a very good alternative for him. They could both end up in the RSA but knowing Mullins....Originally posted by billymag View PostComment
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I think TBG goes Marsh, I think Monkfish goes RSA with Five O’clock, Janidil and Aione as back up if anything goes wrong but the Marsh will suit TBG with his front running galloping.Comment
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Where do you think Asterion Forlonge will end up if he ever visits Cheltenham again??Comment
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Marsh for me. Doesn't jump a hurdle straight, so get him over a fence, see how it goes.Originally posted by The King Pimm View PostComment
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I’d be surprised if he runs at Cheltenham again or any left handed track for that matterOriginally posted by The King Pimm View PostComment
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Mullins isn’t scared of having a multiple runners in each race.Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post
He has namechecked the RSA for TBG which I think a step up will suit, I’d always fancy something with more speed over shorter distances to beat him.Comment
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The grandstand if his jumping this year was anything to take note offOriginally posted by The King Pimm View PostComment
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