Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

[Kevloaf]

IMO he was available at 100/1 because he was chucked in a Supreme first time out over hurdles (in a race), probably at a trip too short (given his flat runs).

I think the owner/jockey combination is correct, but not the only reason he turned up, otherwise why pay him to be trained by WPM, I'm sure there are cheaper options around to have a Supreme runner?

WPM plans further out than I think we realise, Patrick has alluded to this a few times in interviews also (will try and find at least one of them), so possible he has a plan?

On his flat form he could turn into a useful enough hurdler, in his own right, obviously being top level is another question altogether. I'm not sure where Penhill was in the pecking order at this stage, but he certainly wasn't aimed at a Supreme first time out, nor was another from the flat, in Nichols Canyon.

Willie has had runners first time at Cheltenham that have been well backed, and have won.... so I think it's a bit of a leap to anticipate this lad will be anywhere near the top drawer.


I assume you'd only back with a cashout option so it's not very risky, but I just can't see how he progresses enough to be thought of as good enough to win a novice hurdle at Cheltenham. Willie will have loads better, and Willie might not even set the standard.

[Lobos]

Willie has had runners first time at Cheltenham that have been well backed, and have won.... so I think it's a bit of a leap to anticipate this lad will be anywhere near the top drawer.


I assume you'd only back with a cashout option so it's not very risky, but I just can't see how he progresses enough to be thought of as good enough to win a novice hurdle at Cheltenham. Willie will have loads better, and Willie might not even set the standard.

Not sure you can say that with any conviction as he had serious form from the flat. To base your assumption on one run, nearly two years after his last run, is a little premature I'd say.

[Kevloaf]

Not sure you can say that with any conviction as he had serious form from the flat. To base your assumption on one run, nearly two years after his last run, is a little premature I'd say.

I can say it with conviction, and I will.



First of all.... "serious form on the flat"....

The last 10 runs he had on the flat in a row were handicaps, and he finished off rated 86.


Excuse me for not falling over myself to expect him to be a 150+ hurdler.

If we give him 45 lbs, he's entitled to be a 131 rated hurdler, which would give him a stone at least to find to compete at Cheltenham. Reasonable to only give him 40lbs too but I'll be generous.




Given his flat profile, and his one run, thinking he's going to be a leading contender at Cheltenham is a little premature don't you think?


Literally the only reason anyone even mentioned him is because he's with Willie Mullins....which warrants a certain amount of respect, however Willie must have over 50 novice hurdlers that we could make loose cases for like this one?



The Penhill comparison was flattering to say the least too, as Penhill got a rating of 100, which is literally a stone higher..





I'd give you 50/1 that he never wins a Grade 1, let alone a festival race.


You still think I'm being premature?

[ComplyOrDie]

Willie has had runners first time at Cheltenham that have been well backed, and have won.... so I think it's a bit of a leap to anticipate this lad will be anywhere near the top drawer.


I assume you'd only back with a cashout option so it's not very risky, but I just can't see how he progresses enough to be thought of as good enough to win a novice hurdle at Cheltenham. Willie will have loads better, and Willie might not even set the standard.

Handicappers maybe, not the top Novice Hurdle races, has he?

I'd most likely stick to bets with cash out, yeah Kev, however I wouldn't be put off by an 'any race' bet also, as wouldn't rule out a handicap.

I'm not necessarily saying he'd be top level hurdler, but could turn out to be good enough to take a handicap also (I know I initially put him as an option for the Bartlett, as no h'cap threads up yet).

[Lobos]

I can say it with conviction, and I will.



First of all.... "serious form on the flat"....

The last 10 runs he had on the flat in a row were handicaps, and he finished off rated 86.


Excuse me for not falling over myself to expect him to be a 150+ hurdler.

If we give him 45 lbs, he's entitled to be a 131 rated hurdler, which would give him a stone at least to find to compete at Cheltenham. Reasonable to only give him 40lbs too but I'll be generous.




Given his flat profile, and his one run, thinking he's going to be a leading contender at Cheltenham is a little premature don't you think?


Literally the only reason anyone even mentioned him is because he's with Willie Mullins....which warrants a certain amount of respect, however Willie must have over 50 novice hurdlers that we could make loose cases for like this one?



The Penhill comparison was flattering to say the least too, as Penhill got a rating of 100, which is literally a stone higher..





I'd give you 50/1 that he never wins a Grade 1, let alone a festival race.


You still think I'm being premature?

Yep, I'm sticking with it. What rating was Istabraq on the flat ? I rest my case.

[Kevloaf]

Yep, I'm sticking with it. What rating was Istabraq on the flat ? I rest my case.

Fair enough, let's back every single horse with a flat rating of 84 or higher because they might be Istabraq.


Istabraq won a Grade 1 on his 2nd hurdles start, so let's see how Berkshire Royal gets on shall we?





Berkshire Royal
Beaten 80 lengths. Always towards rear, tailed off.



Some serious improvement needed...and 50/1 for the Albert Bartlett is no where near approaching value. What is his any race price? If it's less than treble figures it's a poor bet.

[Lobos]

Fair enough, let's back every single horse with a flat rating of 84 or higher because they might be Istabraq.


Istabraq won a Grade 1 on his 2nd hurdles start, so let's see how Berkshire Royal gets on shall we?





Berkshire Royal
Beaten 80 lengths. Always towards rear, tailed off.



Some serious improvement needed...and 50/1 for the Albert Bartlett is no where near approaching value. What is his any race price? If it's less than treble figures it's a poor bet.

Punjabi

Katchit


It happens.........not very often......but it happens.

[Kevloaf]

Punjabi

Katchit


It happens.........not very often......but it happens.

It happens less often than 1 in 50 times is my point big man....

For your theory to work out, how many losers do you think you'd back?

[Lobos]

It happens less often than 1 in 50 times is my point big man....

For your theory to work out, how many losers do you think you'd back?

Probably 1000+ maybe........but he could be the next 1 in 50. We just don't know. That's racing and dont we just love it.

[Kevloaf]

Probably 1000+ maybe........but he could be the next 1 in 50. We just don't know. That's racing and dont we just love it.

If you ignore the value, the concept of value and reject any aspirations of making profit from racing, then yes, it's a great bet because he might improve like Istabraq.

I fear for the forum though if that's the route we go down


CoD asked for thoughts, I've given my thoughts backed up with reasoning on why I believe it's a poor bet. You disagree, best of luck with it.

[Lobos]

If you ignore the value, the concept of value and reject any aspirations of making profit from racing, then yes, it's a great bet because he might improve like Istabraq.

I fear for the forum though if that's the route we go down


CoD asked for thoughts, I've given my thoughts backed up with reasoning on why I believe it's a poor bet. You disagree, best of luck with it.

I didn't at any point say it was a good bet....just that we shouldn't discount him on the back of one run after nearly 2 years off. Will I back him now....no. I will certainly keep a watchful eye out for his next run though.

[Eggs]

....if anybody particularly likes Appreciate It for the AB, Sky have it doubled to the following years RSA @ 150-1.

[Lobos]

....if anybody particularly likes Appreciate It for the AB, Sky have it doubled to the following years RSA @ 150-1.

I'm hoping he goes this year's RSA....

[Saxon Warrior]

Following on from working through the Champion Chases of the last decade, and then the Grade 1 Novice Chases of a similar period, I took a look at the 4 Grade 1 Novice Hurdles in the last decade, Triumph/Supreme/Ballymore/Bartlett to see how many winners backed-up to win again the following year.

I used the last 9 years of Cheltenham Festivals where the Novice Hurdle Grade 1 winners could have come back the following year, up to and including 2020.

Triumph Hurdle
As you might guess, the most difficult one, given they are juvelines, who have to then go novice chasing, or Open Grade 1 Hurdling at 4.
The answer is of course 0 out of 9 managed to win the following year.
Our Conor fell and died in the Champion Hurdle, Countrywide Flame came 3rd in the CHurdle, and decent winners like Peace & Co, Ivanovitch Gorbatov, Defi Du Seuil, Tiger Roll and Zarkandar didnt come back to win the following year.

Supreme
3 out of 9 winners returned and won at the following years Festival.
Altior, Douvan and Vautour all returned to win Grade 1 Novice Chases, the first two the Arkle and the latter the Marsh.
Champagne Fever was a whisker away from making it 4 winners.
Compared with his Grade 1 Novice Chase winners (1 out of 9 returned to win) Willie does well here, with 2 out of 4 Supreme winners winning the following season and Champagne Fever close to making it 3 out of 4.

Ballymore
3 out of 9 winners returned and won at the following years Festival.
Another excellent strike rate, with Yorkhill, Faugheen and Simonsig returning the following season to win the Marsh, Champion Hurdle and Arkle respectively.

Alongside that First Lieutenant was 2nd in the RSA (to Bobs Worth), The New One was 3rd in the Champion Hurdle, Samcro, Willoughby Court and Windsor Park didnt return and City Island was pulled up in this years Stayers Hurdle. Samcro came back two years after the Ballymore to win the Grade 1 Marsh.

This does show that the Ballymore unearths some repeat winners, and maybe more likely to produce strong Festival performers than winners of any other Grade 1 Novice Chase or Hurdle.

Bartlett
2 out of 9 winners returned and won at the following years Festival.

These were Penhill (Stayers Hurdle) and Bobs Worth (Gold Cup) for WPM and Hendo respectively, these being their only Bartlett winners in the last 9 years.

Others that came back and were placed were Unowhatimeanharry and At Fishers Cross, both short-priced 3rds in the Stayers Hurdle the following year, and Minella Indo a heartbreaking close 2nd to the resurgent Champ in the RSA.

2 winners and 3 placed horses seems a decent haul for the Bartlett winners.

Summary
Overall as we probably all would have expected the all-aged Grade 1 Novice Hurdle winners (excludes the Triumph) were much more successful the following year than the Grade 1 Novice Chase winners.

8 out of 27 of them returned to win, and overall around half of them returned to win or place the following season.

The standout stat from this is that compared to his 1 from 9 returning Grade 1 Novice Chase winners, Willie Mullings had a staggering strike rate with his returning Grade 1 Novice Hurdle winners.

Of 7 Grade 1 Novice Hurdle winners for Willie in the last 9 seasons, 5 of them returned to win the next year, and Champagne Fever was beaten a nose from making it 6 out of 7. (Klassical Dream was the other one, Good job I didnt do this work a year ago then lump on him).

Willie does have an 8th Grade 1 Novice Hurdle winner in the last decade, that could try to win for him next March, and that is Bartlett winner MONKFISH.

With stats like Willie's with these top novices, is MONKFISH going to continue this amazing run of form for him in following up in 2021?

The other amazing stat is for Hendo.
He won the Supreme once, the Ballymore once and the Bartlett once in these 9 years.
Each of the three horses returned the following year one won a Grade 1 Festival Novice Chase.
Bobs Worth - RSA
Simonsig - Arkle
Altior - Arkle

Thats a big pointer, maybe to Hendo's ability to take these top Novice Hurdles through to Gradex1 Novice Chase success and bodes well for SHISHKIN being able to make it 4/4 for Hendo.

Overall in these 9 years, putting Grade 1 Novice Chase and Hurdle winners together Hendo has had success the following year with 6 out of 7, at Grade 1 level following up again with Might Bite being a close-up 2nd in the Gold Cup, completing the 7.
Staggering stuff from the trainer.

[SharpHat]

thanks for that, the stats bear out that Goshen is a terrible price, but one to come back to in 2022