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Mullins is racking up the bumper runner's with potential though.
Dublin may sort them out.
Appreciate it was nowhere near the Fav until he demolished them in Dublin.
I've not backed a Mullins bumper horse yet, but will do when Dublin comes around.
So we'd have to wait for Feb, for Willie to have one to beat Sir Gerhard in the DRF in a bumper, which gives Sir G 6 weeks to get ready for the Supreme or Ballymore where you'd think he'd go off fav?
Or Sir Gerhard skips the DRF but Gordy absolutely shits himself and decided to go over hurdles....
So we'd have to wait for Feb, for Willie to have one to beat Sir Gerhard in the DRF in a bumper, which gives Sir G 6 weeks to get ready for the Supreme or Ballymore where you'd think he'd go off fav?
Or Sir Gerhard skips the DRF but Gordy absolutely shits himself and decided to go over hurdles....
It's just not happening.
100/1+ isn't worth it.
No.
I'd moved on from the hurdling option.
Just doubting his favourite tag for the bumper will last till March.
unless he does skip Dublin.
Ballyadam will be Gordon’s number one for the Supreme. We know most of his were wrong at Leopardstown, including Ballyadam, and I’ve said it several time's on her before, ‘always forgive them once’.
Obviously therefore I think there’s zero chance of Sir Gerard going to the Ballymore. 100.0+ on the exchange is fair enough, although I wouldn’t be taking the 33/1 on offer with the bookies.
On Ballyadam, I didn’t think he was the most likely winner before he ran flat at Leopardstown, but as each trial passes and horses fall short his chances increase. He’s an excellent each way price, and for me he is actually a value bet now. Appreciate It is a worthy favourite though, and unless something comes along to shake the market up he’ll go off very short. Seven years olds don’t win the Supreme though do they!
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
Ballyadam will be Gordon’s number one for the Supreme. We know most of his were wrong at Leopardstown, including Ballyadam, and I’ve said it several time's on her before, ‘always forgive them once’.
Obviously therefore I think there’s zero chance of Sir Gerard going to the Ballymore. 100.0+ on the exchange is fair enough, although I wouldn’t be taking the 33/1 on offer with the bookies.
On Ballyadam, I didn’t think he was the most likely winner before he ran flat at Leopardstown, but as each trial passes and horses fall short his chances increase. He’s an excellent each way price, and for me he is actually a value bet now. Appreciate It is a worthy favourite though, and unless something comes along to shake the market up he’ll go off very short. Seven years olds don’t win the Supreme though do they!
We could have back to back 7yo winners if Sir G lives up to his billing as I’d be pretty confident he’ll be a Supreme horse.
Ballyadam will be Gordon’s number one for the Supreme. We know most of his were wrong at Leopardstown, including Ballyadam, and I’ve said it several time's on her before, ‘always forgive them once’.
Obviously therefore I think there’s zero chance of Sir Gerard going to the Ballymore. 100.0+ on the exchange is fair enough, although I wouldn’t be taking the 33/1 on offer with the bookies.
On Ballyadam, I didn’t think he was the most likely winner before he ran flat at Leopardstown, but as each trial passes and horses fall short his chances increase. He’s an excellent each way price, and for me he is actually a value bet now. Appreciate It is a worthy favourite though, and unless something comes along to shake the market up he’ll go off very short. Seven years olds don’t win the Supreme though do they!
I'm forgiving Gordon's horses over Christmas and have used Ballyadam, Abacadabras, Fury Road, Farouk D'Alene and Samcro in very small stakes EW trebles, 4Folds and a 5Fold.
Ballyadam will be Gordon’s number one for the Supreme. We know most of his were wrong at Leopardstown, including Ballyadam, and I’ve said it several time's on her before, ‘always forgive them once’.
Obviously therefore I think there’s zero chance of Sir Gerard going to the Ballymore. 100.0+ on the exchange is fair enough, although I wouldn’t be taking the 33/1 on offer with the bookies.
On Ballyadam, I didn’t think he was the most likely winner before he ran flat at Leopardstown, but as each trial passes and horses fall short his chances increase. He’s an excellent each way price, and for me he is actually a value bet now. Appreciate It is a worthy favourite though, and unless something comes along to shake the market up he’ll go off very short. Seven years olds don’t win the Supreme though do they!
Wonder if gordy might be tempted to pull a florida pearl with him
Wonder if gordy might be tempted to pull a florida pearl with him
Possibly. If he did it could be well timed given there’s going to be a changing of the guard over two miles. They’d bump into Shishkin though, so he’s another they may be thinking they should have a crack at the Champion Hurdle after his novice hurdle season.
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
Spent quite sometime on the Ballymore today. First the stats, 7 of the past 10 winners were Irish with 16 of the past 17 winners being in the first five in the betting. The Lawlor hurdle at Naas on Sunday produced 2 winners and 3 placed from 5 winning runners of that race.. So the Lawlor a race to concentrate on.
Going through the race at this stage you can possibly disregard a few that ran over the Christmas period being just 14 days on. Having a good or bad run then.
Possible runners could be Bob Olinger, Cape Gentleman, Uhtred and probably a couple of W. Mullin runners worth looking at closely.
Bob Olinger ticks a lot of boxes, Uhtred is anything and could be smart but for me Cape Gentleman is the one for me,
Bought in France by Emmet Mullins for E80k to go jumping he first had a flat run finishing second to a W. Mullins trained 97 rated horse getting 11lb. Improving from that first run to win the Irish Cesarewitch off 85 by an easy 2 lths.
Dec 8th first hurdles run at Punchestown 2ml 4f was made 5/4 fav and won very easy indeed jumping well although did step through one but recovered within a stride. The ease of this win cannot be understated. Emmet said after the race he was a little worried about the heavy ground his thought being he was a spring horse. Winning the Cesarewitch over 2 mile one would think the Ballymore distance would be ideal?
Something to note about the trainer is that he started training in 2015 and during that time sent 14 runners to the u.k. 5 won and 3 placed.
20/1 best available for the Ballymore seems to be a fair e/way price to take with a view that should he run as I expect on Sunday and win or run very well under the conditions 20/1 will be long gone. Bob Olinger a big danger with Uhtred one to watch out for.
Comments please and if Emmet Mullins could please confirm the horse is very well and we can expect a good run on Sunday I would be obliged.
Reading this and the reply to the question who would you have in front of him is starting to worry me a little.. I am new to this forum and so I am only vaguely aware of the detail but I have picked up on a few bits that suggest that there is a horse out there that some know about whose name cannot be mentioned who is going to take the novice hurdle market by storm. This has now seeped into another forum. Is the advice of this forum to limit our bets until this secret identity is revealed so we all save ourselves some money. Historically winners of supremes and ballymore have had at least two and usually more than two hurdle races prior to Cheltenham so it’s getting a little late for a horse W/o previous hurdle experience to emerge. Does anybody have a sense of how much longer we might have to wait.
Sorry I'm abit confused.
Ballyadam was the one to beat but obviously he hasnt really boosted that with his loss to Appreciate It.
I'm just saying dont give up on him just yet as I dont believe he run his race.
Possibly. If he did it could be well timed given there’s going to be a changing of the guard over two miles. They’d bump into Shishkin though, so he’s another they may be thinking they should have a crack at the Champion Hurdle after his novice hurdle season.
I think Ollie was talking about Sir Gerhard going novice chasing next season, as otherwise the reference to Florida Pearl would be meaningless as with regards to Ballyadam.
There seem to be a lot of theories flying about as to this horse going here and that horse going there. I think sometimes it's as difficult to actually guess a horses eventual target at the festival, as to the horses chances of actually winning. Trying to second guess Willie Mullins is nigh on impossible and that's why the TWAR bet is a really handy weapon. Nearly all my Ante Post bets are TWAR, although the TWAR price is going to be far shorter it takes out a lot of the hassle and if you are lucky enough for your selection just to make it to Cheltenham.
Everyone has views on this and that but the way I see the Supreme and Ballymore currently are as follows, Willie really holds the key with Appreciate It, whichever target is chosen I think he'll win. Personally I see AI going to the Supreme simply after his performance at Christmas why step up? Yes he could improve for the step up but to me the Ballymore has three potential stars looking likely to go there. Bob Olinger who I love and have no stamina doubts or concerns over ground or his ability to climb the hill after his victory at Navan. Gaillard Du Mesnil who I thought was mightly impressive at Leopardstown, he tanked along in the race and visually looked the business. He was beaten first time out at Punchestown but a lot of Willie's have come on a great deal for a run. I've taken the 14s TWAR with Hills and think its a cracking price as Willie has already implied that he and AI will try and avoid each other. Then Bravesmangame who no doubt will be a star when he goes chasing but has to be respected despite winning a weak renewal of the Challow. Despite that I feel he's the best British novice hurdler at the moment. Can't be having Metier at any price but especially at 7s for the Supreme, a joke price. In the Tolworth he beat Shakem Up'Arry who previously was beaten off 130 at Haydock! No fan of Ballyadam but I'm pretty sure that an under par Ballyadam would be capable of beating Arry senseless!
To me AI wins the Supreme and probably the Ballymore but I think the opposition is more difficult on the Wednesday. So my advice is pile on Metier as usually when I'm against one so strongly they hose up!
I'm forgiving Gordon's horses over Christmas and have used Ballyadam, Abacadabras, Fury Road, Farouk D'Alene and Samcro in very small stakes EW trebles, 4Folds and a 5Fold.
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