Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

[Kevloaf]

Appreciate It cut into 8s at paddy power for the ballymore

Excellent, literally posted about that being a hope yesterday!

[Faugheen_Machine]

Excellent, literally posted about that being a hope yesterday!

It's not a significant cut though Kev and it actually followed BetVictor cutting him first.

If they'd gone to 6s, I'd have understood the excitement

[taylorch1990]

Looks like Betfair/PP have also pushed out Ferny Hollow for the ballymore as well as shortening Appreciate It.

[Kevloaf]

It's not a significant cut though Kev and it actually followed BetVictor cutting him first.

If they'd gone to 6s, I'd have understood the excitement

I'm not sure.

They were biggest price on all 3, and they've cut him in just 1.

That seems significant to me.




Also, BetVictor being 4 places might be a reason they're cutting there horses?


Anyway, BV or no BV, I think that classes as significant - ultimately I've already taken my position on him though and unless they end up pushing him out now to biggest price and slashing for the AB or Supreme, I'll consider it that I was right all along with the target.

[Eggs]

I've asked Sky

....thanks; 20-1 is disappointing, especially given its 25-1 in Hills a/r market.

[dannycraigpirates]

Yep, maybe we’re adding 1+1+1 and making 5 but:

ballyadam pushed out to 8s in supreme
ferny pushed out to 14s in ballymore
Appreciate it cut to 10s in ballymore

that’s not good reading for ballyadam backers - especially when winning the royal bond at the weekend (quite cosily imho too)


edit: or could it just be that the mood from willie’s yard is that ferny is working very well & definitely going supreme. Perhaps the risk of ferny going ballymore was shortening ballyadam’s supreme price?

[Run4Home]

I would assume its just most punters will have worked out from what we have seen Ferny is the supreme horse and Appreciate It the Ballymore horse for Mullins and people are backing them as the targets would look to be a lot clearer now. There has also been little of no real opposition as of yet seen for these races (bar maybe Ballyadam & Dusart)
Most people have likely doubled these up too

[charlie]

Maiden hurdle at Clonmel tomorrow sees Willie Mullins enter Capodanno. In recent times he's used this race in the early hurdling lives of the following:

2019: Saint Roi (1st, '20 County Hurdle)
2018: Castlebawn West (PU, '19 Ballymore) (UR, '20 RSA)
2017: Draconien (1st, '18 Punchestown Champ Novice Hurdle)
2016: Pylonthepressure (5th, '18 NHC)
2015: Yorkhill entered but meeting abandoned (1st, '16 Ballymore) (1st, '17 Marsh)
2014: Sambremont (8th, '16 Kim Muir)
2013: Turnandgo
2012: Ballycasey (3rd in G1 Nov hurdle at Punchestown Festival in '13) (4th, '14 RSA) (5th, '16 Brown Advisory) (4th, '19 Cross Country)

Excellent work Jorvik, thank you.

1pt @ 56/1 supreme

[The King Pimm]

...an interesting roll of honour. Tomorrow’s race is 2m 3f, not sure if that’s an insight to future plans but a ‘win today and a/r at the Festival’ might be worth a small interest given Capodanno is available @ 50-1 for the Supreme & Ballymore.

Hopefully somebody can request through appropriate channels. HNY.

Is it unrealistic that Capodanno could end up in the Boodles? He’s rated at 123 at the moment, he wins tomorrow and then bombs twice next time out or will he realistically win tomorrow and fly up the weights??

Ignore the above. Capodanno will turn 5 in 2021 so won’t qualify for Boodles anyway.

[Quevega]

Is it unrealistic that Capodanno could end up in the Boodles? He’s rated at 123 at the moment, he wins tomorrow and then bombs twice next time out or will he realistically win tomorrow and fly up the weights??

too old King,

[Dandrew99]

Is it unrealistic that Capodanno could end up in the Boodles? He’s rated at 123 at the moment, he wins tomorrow and then bombs twice next time out or will he realistically win tomorrow and fly up the weights??

Do you mean the county?

[The King Pimm]

Do you mean the county?

As much as I’d like to save face and say yes I did mean the County I didn’t, I meant the Boodles. I’m just thinking of what happened with Aramax last season and thought of the JP plot for the Boodles. JP doesn’t have any stand out graded novices so far so assumed he may focus on the other novice handicap races with a horse on the cusp on graded level like Aramax, SDB and Saint Roi who is clearly way ahead of their handicap mark.

[Dandrew99]

As much as I’d like to save face and say yes I did mean the County I didn’t, I meant the Boodles. I’m just thinking of what happened with Aramax last season and thought of the JP plot for the Boodles. JP doesn’t have any stand out graded novices so far so assumed he may focus on the other novice handicap races with a horse on the cusp on graded level like Aramax, SDB and Saint Roi who is clearly way ahead of their handicap mark.

Haha too honest

I do think supreme will be the target for Capodanno, I'd say the county is probably more likely than the Ballymore. Those win today and any race prices are shocking IMO when you can get 50s for the supreme. I try (and fail) to stay away from the Juveniles this time of year, let alone working out which ones are gunna be well handicapped!

[Can't Catch Me]

Anyone got an opinion of Gentleman de Mee? One I was looking at tonight. Jumped nicely on debut in France and the horse that beat him has run in some high class races since. Have added at 50/1 for the Supreme.

[Lobos]

Very significant move for Appreciate It in Ballymore. Halved in price in one day. That's serious . Have to say I've been against him all along re Hurdles venture but this has made me rethink.