Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

[Kevloaf]

My Ballyadam/Ferny/Appreciate It headache continues but might be easing. Added AI for the Bartlett at 22/1 boosted with PP. He's the one who looks an RSA horse in the making and I think he could be the one shoved up in trip to accommodate the CP two.

Why would that happen?



The only scenario that happens, is if Chevely Park literally told Mullins he HAD TO run Ferny Hollow in the Ballymore and Willie was then absolutely adament he wanted Paul Townend to ride both.

If it's the other way round and Ferny Hollow is in the Supreme, no chance Willie "shoves Appreciate It up in trip" to avoid Ballyadam.


What you have to weigh up, is IF CP do force Willie's hand, does that guarantee AI goes for the Albert Bartett? I don't think it does still. They've raced against each other before (granted no alternative targets) but what seems to be happening here is that for some reason people are assuming the ONLY TWO good Novice Hurdlers Willie has, are Ferny Hollow and Appreciate It. History tells us the best novice hurdlers don't even come from the Champion Bumper, so I'll be surprised (in a good way) if they are, but I don't expect it by any stretch.



I personally feel way too much is being made of these three connecting.

I can see why people are trying to work out the CP pair, but Appreciate It isn't one that should be automatically involved. The treble, for me, is just assuming Willie has absolutely nothing else, which is so unlikely!


On Appreciate It, I fully expect him to turn the form around with Ferny Hollow over obstacles, I think he'd beat him at any trip if they met again. People may think I'm going too far there at 2 miles, but Appreciate It had the 'speed' to wallop the rest of the field, and I think going over obstacles suits him more than FH.



I do agree he's a future RSA horse, however that doesn't mean he needs to be in the Albert Bartlett this year.

[Altior]

Why would that happen?



The only scenario that happens, is if Chevely Park literally told Mullins he HAD TO run Ferny Hollow in the Ballymore and Willie was then absolutely adament he wanted Paul Townend to ride both.

If it's the other way round and Ferny Hollow is in the Supreme, no chance Willie "shoves Appreciate It up in trip" to avoid Ballyadam.


What you have to weigh up, is IF CP do force Willie's hand, does that guarantee AI goes for the Albert Bartett? I don't think it does still. They've raced against each other before (granted no alternative targets) but what seems to be happening here is that for some reason people are assuming the ONLY TWO good Novice Hurdlers Willie has, are Ferny Hollow and Appreciate It. History tells us the best novice hurdlers don't even come from the Champion Bumper, so I'll be surprised (in a good way) if they are, but I don't expect it by any stretch.



I personally feel way too much is being made of these three connecting.

I can see why people are trying to work out the CP pair, but Appreciate It isn't one that should be automatically involved. The treble, for me, is just assuming Willie has absolutely nothing else, which is so unlikely!


On Appreciate It, I fully expect him to turn the form around with Ferny Hollow over obstacles, I think he'd beat him at any trip if they met again. People may think I'm going too far there at 2 miles, but Appreciate It had the 'speed' to wallop the rest of the field, and I think going over obstacles suits him more than FH.



I do agree he's a future RSA horse, however that doesn't mean he needs to be in the Albert Bartlett this year.

Nice post Kev and yeah I and I guess many are just hoping they slot into separate races so that the magic treble is alive and well. There's obviously no logic to what they should do and put horse a here, horse b there and horse c over there, it'll be a case where the horse will go to its best chance 95 times out of 100 and if that means stables or owners clash then so be it.

I really like Appreciate It too and because Ferny is still daft as a brush I'd have to fancy him to reverse it too. Watching the bumper again Ferny showed so much ability to come from the back, he looks like he'll stay all day as well. I nearly feel you'd need to be a faster horse to win a Ballymore than a Supreme and regardless of pocket talking I do think Ferny should go the Neptune trip.

[Kevloaf]

Nice post Kev and yeah I and I guess many are just hoping they slot into separate races so that the magic treble is alive and well. There's obviously no logic to what they should do and put horse a here, horse b there and horse c over there, it'll be a case where the horse will go to its best chance 95 times out of 100 and if that means stables or owners clash then so be it.

I really like Appreciate It too and because Ferny is still daft as a brush I'd have to fancy him to reverse it too. Watching the bumper again Ferny showed so much ability to come from the back, he looks like he'll stay all day as well. I nearly feel you'd need to be a faster horse to win a Ballymore than a Supreme and regardless of pocket talking I do think Ferny should go the Neptune trip.

To be fair the 'logic' behind where certain horses are placed that are related is one of my favourite angles, I'm almost always looking for it. I just don't believe there is enough backing this particular threesome up... I can see why people are of course, I'm just not buying in to it I suppose.



If you did want to have the bet, I'd leave Ballyadam out. If Ferny goes to the Ballymore like you think, it is perfectly feasible to split those two up... I don't think Ballyadam is good enough to be a factor, but the other two could happen. It is a cover bet I could place myself, I'm just not doubting myself enough to worry just yet

[jack1092]

I re-watched the Appreciate it race last night. Both he and the second horse pulled well clear of everything and AI showed a lovely turn of foot after the last to breeze past his opponent.

After a couple of beers (wasn’t a good idea) I have lumped (for me) on AI for the Ballymore with 3 points & have ended up with a roll up leading to AI to win the Ballymore @ 58/1.
in my haste I didn’t even consider the potato race... for my peace of mind, do we think he’s more a Ballymore type?

Appreciate It did what he had to do, and we know from his bumper runs he's a quality horse, but that maiden hurdle he won was one of the worst in Ireland. They'll be happy with that though as he's had an easy assignment first time up.

I note Tony Calvin has stuck up N'Golo for the Supreme after his running on 3rd on Sunday. He'll probably stick to 2miles over Xmas, but given he stayed 1m6 on the flat in France, anyone else thinking come March he could be one for the Albert Bartlett? Bundles of experience and stayed on nicely at Navan on sft/hvy. He was a bit keen on Sunday which would need ironed out, but then it was a slowly run race which you'd hope a race at the festival wouldn't be. Not one to bet on now but he's on my mind for it.

[Topofthegame2021]

Appreciate It did what he had to do, and we know from his bumper runs he's a quality horse, but that maiden hurdle he won was one of the worst in Ireland. They'll be happy with that though as he's had an easy assignment first time up.

The front two pulled 28l clear on heavy ground. A step up in trip will see him to greater effect. He never looked in doubt in the race IMO, he’s not really a flashy horse who will go and beat a field by 10+ lengths.

[Kevloaf]

I'm a big fan of Appreciate It (durrr) but somebody made a point a week or so ago that PP are biggest price on him for all 3 novice hurdles.

I'd certainly like to see them look as if they don't want to get him in the book at some point

My theory on this, is they're biggest price so they don't give anything away and take money for him in the 2 races he won't be running in.

The first "significant market move" they make on him I feel will be quite telling.

[ComplyOrDie]

I note Tony Calvin has stuck up N'Golo for the Supreme after his running on 3rd on Sunday. He'll probably stick to 2miles over Xmas, but given he stayed 1m6 on the flat in France, anyone else thinking come March he could be one for the Albert Bartlett? Bundles of experience and stayed on nicely at Navan on sft/hvy. He was a bit keen on Sunday which would need ironed out, but then it was a slowly run race which you'd hope a race at the festival wouldn't be. Not one to bet on now but he's on my mind for it.

Could go anywhere, couldn't he? Not even rated that high so a handicap could come into the reckoning?

I like him, I think he'll be better over further, which, debut aside, is probably why his rating is not so high, as his winning margins haven't been extravagant.

I'll probably just keep backing him for any race, currently.

[jack1092]

The front two pulled 28l clear on heavy ground. A step up in trip will see him to greater effect. He never looked in doubt in the race IMO, he’s not really a flashy horse who will go and beat a field by 10+ lengths.

For a horse thats won 2 of his 5 races by 6 and 7.5ls i'd say that's been plucked out of thin air ...As i said, i know he's a quality horse from his bumpers, but that maiden hurdle basically told us he knows how to jump a hurdle half decent.

[jack1092]

Could go anywhere, couldn't he? Not even rated that high so a handicap could come into the reckoning?

I like him, I think he'll be better over further, which, debut aside, is probably why his rating is not so high, as his winning margins haven't been extravagant.

I'll probably just keep backing him for any race, currently.

Yeah i agree, literally could go anywhere at this moment. I can see Calvin's view, but i'd be thinking as the season progresses he'll go up in trip. I'm holding off backing him for now as i suspect he'll run decent races but not win, so his price should hold.

[ComplyOrDie]

Yeah i agree, literally could go anywhere at this moment. I can see Calvin's view, but i'd be thinking as the season progresses he'll go up in trip. I'm holding off backing him for now as i suspect he'll run decent races but not win, so his price should hold.

Doesn't appear to have the profile or race planning of a Mullins Supreme hope, for me. I'd be disappointed if that was all RR had for this year too.

[Topofthegame2021]

For a horse thats won 2 of his 5 races by 6 and 7.5ls i'd say that's been plucked out of thin air ...As i said, i know he's a quality horse from his bumpers, but that maiden hurdle basically told us he knows how to jump a hurdle half decent.

That’s why I said 10+ lengths

[SeanRock]

Appreciate It did what he had to do, and we know from his bumper runs he's a quality horse, but that maiden hurdle he won was one of the worst in Ireland. They'll be happy with that though as he's had an easy assignment first time up.

I note Tony Calvin has stuck up N'Golo for the Supreme after his running on 3rd on Sunday. He'll probably stick to 2miles over Xmas, but given he stayed 1m6 on the flat in France, anyone else thinking come March he could be one for the Albert Bartlett? Bundles of experience and stayed on nicely at Navan on sft/hvy. He was a bit keen on Sunday which would need ironed out, but then it was a slowly run race which you'd hope a race at the festival wouldn't be. Not one to bet on now but he's on my mind for it.

N'golo doesn't look to have the pace for 2m but he races too freely to be more effective going up in trip for me. He took a keen pull on the reins all the way around Fairyhouse on Sunday. Hard to place him unless a hood settles him down considerably. He looks a proper chaser in the making, big stamp of a horse!

[Topofthegame2021]

N'golo doesn't look to have the pace for 2m but he races too freely to be more effective going up in trip for me. He took a keen pull on the reins all the way around Fairyhouse on Sunday. Hard to place him unless a hood settles him down considerably. He looks a proper chaser in the making, big stamp of a horse!

He’s an enigma really. Part of me thinks he would love a strongly ran Supreme and the stiff finish at Cheltenham. He was flying home in the Royal Bond.

if he wasn’t so keen early on he might have been closer and could’ve made more of his finishing power (like he did on his start before the RB)

all ifs and buts in all honesty - I jumped on 20/1 TWAR so I’m happy either way really!

[Saxon Warrior]

N'GOLO went up 1lb to 138 after Sundays run, so he could go anywhere.

If he keeps pulling and finishing quickly, and Willie shows that he has one or two better Supreme horses, then he looks a solid County Hurdle type.

[Topofthegame2021]

N'GOLO went up 1lb to 138 after Sundays run, so he could go anywhere.

If he keeps pulling and finishing quickly, and Willie shows that he has one or two better Supreme horses, then he looks a solid County Hurdle type.

Saxon, that’s a great shout. I’ll wait a while but will definitely consider getting him added in!