Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

[charlie]

I wanted Ballyadam to blow me away yesterday, which he didn't do, I think we can all agree on that.

If I had to rate him yesterday (with the blinkers off) I'd give him 7/10, I think that's about right (keen to hear how others would score).

His jumping could have been better, no getting away from that. For me the encouraging thing to take from both yesterday and Down Royal, is he jumps much better when the tempo increases and he's asked to get racing. I am happy to set aside winning distances, form, ownership, going conditions etc, and take that as a positive trait for a horse going into a race like the supreme because its almost always run at a high tempo, and I think he is crying out for a furiously run race to be seen to best effect.

Would I back him now @ 5/1, no, I wouldn't. But then I don't have 5/1, so hoping for an improved round of jumping next time

As a side note, general expectations about novices have definitely changed a lot over the last 10 years (IMO of course). I found myself expecting Ballyadam to 'blow away' more experienced rivals on his second start over hurdles in a grade 1 yesterday. I can put my hands up and say I definitely fell into the trap of not managing my own expectations properly, and think very generally, that there's a tendency for all of us, the media, twitter etc, to do the same re novice hurdlers, particularly at this point in the season.

[TigerRolllllll]

Is it just me, or are the picture for the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett less developed than this time last year?

Only ones I can see for each that look likely to go and have decent chance are....

Ballymore - Appreciate It, Bob Olinger, Bravemansgame

Spuds - Holymacapony, Crosshill (Farouk D’alene was aimed at Fury Rd races but prob not good enough)

Even some the above ones are less than certain

Supreme picture definitely looks clearer

[charlie]

Is it just me, or are the picture for the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett less developed than this time last year?

Only ones I can see for each that look likely to go and have decent chance are....

Ballymore - Appreciate It, Bob Olinger, Bravemansgame

Spuds - Holymacapony, Crosshill (Farouk D’alene was aimed at Fury Rd races but prob not good enough)

Even some the above ones are less than certain

Supreme picture definitely looks clearer

There is a huge opportunity to get decent prices in the Ballymore atm. Appreciate It @ 12/1 is calling me

[Kevloaf]

Is it just me, or are the picture for the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett less developed than this time last year?

Only ones I can see for each that look likely to go and have decent chance are....

Ballymore - Appreciate It, Bob Olinger, Bravemansgame

Spuds - Holymacapony, Crosshill (Farouk D’alene was aimed at Fury Rd races but prob not good enough)

Even some the above ones are less than certain

Supreme picture definitely looks clearer

It may be because we missed the end of last season there wasn't the usual amount of horses out or form lines tested... so the pool is smaller than we're used to and the form is flakier (generally speaking)

[Run4Home]

There is a huge opportunity to get decent prices in the Ballymore atm. Appreciate It @ 12/1 is calling me

Agreed, looks a big price given he looks like Mullins horse here now and no obvious opposition as of yet.

[TigerRolllllll]

Agreed, looks a big price given he looks like Mullins horse here now and no obvious opposition as of yet.

Double with Ferny a must

[Jorvik]

Just re-watched the Ballyadam race, can't say I was blown away visually, but then again at this point it's fairly straightforward to argue he's beaten more over hurdles than Ferny. I'd still much rather have the latter though.

[Run4Home]

Just re-watched the Ballyadam race, can't say I was blown away visually, but then again at this point it's fairly straightforward to argue he's beaten more over hurdles than Ferny. I'd still much rather have the latter though.

You'd have something in Royal Bond above Bob Olinger? For me Ferny has beaten more.

[Craigy14]

Looking back at Ballyadam's run at the weekend. Hmm. Shouldn't he be smashing the horses in that race if he wants to win a supreme?

I think he was doing enough SB.

His turn of foot to get away from the field was impressive and Jack wasn’t throwing the kitchen sink at him and was eased down a bit.

[Jorvik]

You'd have something in Royal Bond above Bob Olinger? For me Ferny has beaten more.

More that i'm saying we've only seen both Bob and Ferny once over hurdles, a length apart from each other in a race they were basically alone in, it was a match to all intents and purposes, so how you view either relies to a large extent on the other being a genuine good 'en. At this point in time, there is some decent form in behind Ballyadam and more to go off on that front, that's all i'm saying. Visually I find Ferny to be be the most impressive Supreme candidate so far which is reflected in my largely dreadful diary.

[Eireman]

As a side note, general expectations about novices have definitely changed a lot over the last 10 years (IMO of course). I found myself expecting Ballyadam to 'blow away' more experienced rivals on his second start over hurdles in a grade 1 yesterday. I can put my hands up and say I definitely fell into the trap of not managing my own expectations properly, and think very generally, that there's a tendency for all of us, the media, twitter etc, to do the same re novice hurdlers, particularly at this point in the season.

Agree with this completely. I think people are becoming a little disappointed when a hype horse doesn't lock himself down as a potential banker. Did Ballyadam show himself to be a banker? not at all. Did he show himself as having no chance of winning a supreme? Again not at all for me. He is simply what he was before yesterday. A horse with a good chance of being competitive in a supreme who will require further improvement if he is to win it.

[Run4Home]

More that i'm saying we've only seen both Bob and Ferny once over hurdles, a length apart from each other in a race they were basically alone in, it was a match to all intents and purposes, so how you view either relies to a large extent on the other being a genuine good 'en. At this point in time, there is some decent form in behind Ballyadam and more to go off on that front, that's all i'm saying. Visually I find Ferny to be be the most impressive Supreme candidate so far which is reflected in my largely dreadful diary.

Yeah Ferny as a supreme contender to me looked the better anyway to the eye.

At 2 miles so much is down to jumping quickly and fluidly which Ballyadam would need to brush up on significantly. Looks to have a serious engine and turn of foot but wouldn't like how much he was ridden for a jump at times yesterday and twice when asked at the last to jump at speed hasn't produced as of yet.

Ferny and Appreciate it the two most likely winners of the novice races for me at this stage ...

Looking forward to seeing Bob Oli stepped up too, wasn't asked too much when beaten by Ferny.

[Topofthegame2021]

I re-watched the Appreciate it race last night. Both he and the second horse pulled well clear of everything and AI showed a lovely turn of foot after the last to breeze past his opponent.

After a couple of beers (wasn’t a good idea) I have lumped (for me) on AI for the Ballymore with 3 points & have ended up with a roll up leading to AI to win the Ballymore @ 58/1.
in my haste I didn’t even consider the potato race... for my peace of mind, do we think he’s more a Ballymore type?

[Kevloaf]

I re-watched the Appreciate it race last night. Both he and the second horse pulled well clear of everything and AI showed a lovely turn of foot after the last to breeze past his opponent.

After a couple of beers (wasn’t a good idea) I have lumped (for me) on AI for the Ballymore with 3 points & have ended up with a roll up leading to AI to win the Ballymore @ 58/1.
in my haste I didn’t even consider the potato race... for my peace of mind, do we think he’s more a Ballymore type?

I'm very confident he's a Ballymore type.

He'd run well in any novice hurdle race, he's class.


He's going to go very close in the Ballymore, and go very close in the RSA next season. All in my opinion, of course

[Topofthegame2021]

I'm very confident he's a Ballymore type.

He'd run well in any novice hurdle race, he's class.


He's going to go very close in the Ballymore, and go very close in the RSA next season. All in my opinion, of course

Thank the heavens

I should drink more often - maybe that’s my best chance at finding the winners lol