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Kevloaf @ Fat Jockey
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In relation to Bob Olinger didn't i read someone on this thread put up interesting stats on horses beat FTO and their negative win prospects for a Ballymore? Did a search and failed..maybe im imagining it
They did as Willoughby Court got beat first time before conquering one of Kevloafs favourites Neon Wolf. So don't let that put you off Bob Olinger not that it would. Quite a few have lost throughout the season you do not need a horse with a string of 1s next to it's name.
They did as Willoughby Court got beat first time before conquering one of Kevloafs favourites Neon Wolf. So don't let that put you off Bob Olinger not that it would. Quite a few have lost throughout the season you do not need a horse with a string of 1s next to it's name.
Yeah there was another as well that had done it in the 10-15 years I went back,,,,
It was definitely to do with the distance of 2 miles though as I recall having to split the results into sections.... I don't think any horse had been beaten at 2m and gone on to win a Ballymore, horses beaten over further had (two of them)....
My general point was, if a horse was beaten over 2m, he wouldn't be my first choice in a Ballymore.... but it doesn't mean Bob Oligner couldn't win at all.... annoyed I can't find it
Yeah there was another as well, although I think it was no horse had been beaten at 2 miles.
It was definitely to do with the distance of 2 miles as I recall having to split the results into sections....
My general point was, if a horse was beaten over 2m, he wouldn't be my first choice in a Ballymore.... but it doesn't mean Bob Oligner couldn't win at all, I do want to find it though, it's getting on my nerves!
Yeah it was aimed at those beaten over 2m first up haven't gone onto win but those who started at 18/20f and beaten have been fine. Seems far too simplistic to dismiss on that but hey ho. Was aimed at Your darling i recall after getting beaten i believe but i'll let you trawl through the pagers Moderator
Yeah it was aimed at those beaten over 2m first up haven't gone onto win but those who started at 18/20f and beaten have been fine. Seems far too simplistic to dismiss on that but hey ho. Was aimed at Your darling i recall after getting beaten i believe but i'll let you trawl through the pagers Moderator
That was it....was around when Your Darling made his debut.
Anyway, agree Kev wouldn't put me 100% off as racing Ferny on your 2nd race under rules is a fair level! Like him myself just not sure if it'll be for the festival
I know they are really sweet on Your Darling, but I believe they also have another in the yard that they are keen on, one I think will be more likely Supreme bound. I also think on breeding as well that Your Darling will be seen to better effect over the Ballymore trip. It will only take one defeat over the minimum for him to be stepped up.
Not necessarily defeated at 2m, but Willoughby Court, Windsor Park, The New One, Simonsig & First Lieutenant all tasted defeat before winning the Ballymore in recent years gone by.
2009 - Mikael D'Hag - 2x wins over 2m, was unbeaten over hurdles.
2010 - Peddlers Cross - 3x wins over 2m, was also unbeaten, first go at intermediate trip was the Neptune.
2011 - First Lieutenant - 1x (G1) win over 2m, beaten his other attempt (his maiden) and also 1 win 1 defeat intermediate trip
2012 - Simonsig - didn't run at less than 2m2f - unbeaten.
2013 - The New One - didn't run at less than 2m2f.
2014 - Faugheen - again, didn't run at less than 2m2f - unbeaten
2015 - Windsor Park - as above, didn't run at less than 2m2f.
2016 - Yorkhill - 1x win (G1) win at 2m - unbeaten
2017 - Willoughby Court - didn't run at less than 2m2f
2018 - Samcro - 2x wins at 2m (inc G1) - unbeaten
2019 - City Island - 1x win at 2m - unbeaten
2020 - Envoi Allen - 2x win at 2m (inc G1) - unbeaten
Only 1 horse in the last 12 years (couldn't be arsed going back further) has been beaten at 2m before going on to win the Ballymore, and that was in a maiden hurdle.
So my gut instinct feels right, if he gets beat tomorrow, I don't want him onside for the Ballymore anyway
Last edited by Kevloaf; 24 November 2020, 12:06 AM.
Apart from Ferney Hollow, who everyone knows about, one suspects that Mullins hasn't played his full hand yet in the Supreme. He normally unleashes his best around Xmas time so what can we expect to turn up. Picking out little bits that Willie and Patrick have murmured I'm interested in two of his French recruits which could turn out to be his top Supreme horse. Capodanno and Gentlemen De Mee. I've already backed the latter TWAR but both are available at 50/1 which may look a bargain after their debuts. Anyone else have thoughts on these two ?
just seen Capodanno has 2 entries over 2 miles on Thursday at Thurles. Nice.
Apart from Ferney Hollow, who everyone knows about, one suspects that Mullins hasn't played his full hand yet in the Supreme
Same every year Lobos, many festival winners make their debuts/reappearances after mid November, especially novice hurdlers.
Plenty in here take flyers before horses are seen and get the bigger prices prices, others wait until form can be compared, there’s no right/wrong approach, one reduces the risk but also reduces the chance of an elusive 33/1 winner...
Apart from Ferney Hollow, who everyone knows about, one suspects that Mullins hasn't played his full hand yet in the Supreme. He normally unleashes his best around Xmas time so what can we expect to turn up. Picking out little bits that Willie and Patrick have murmured I'm interested in two of his French recruits which could turn out to be his top Supreme horse. Capodanno and Gentlemen De Mee. I've already backed the latter TWAR but both are available at 50/1 which may look a bargain after their debuts. Anyone else have thoughts on these two ?
I'd be more interested to see your workings as to why they're potentially good bets. Feel free to add some substance...
Apart from Ferney Hollow, who everyone knows about, one suspects that Mullins hasn't played his full hand yet in the Supreme. He normally unleashes his best around Xmas time so what can we expect to turn up. Picking out little bits that Willie and Patrick have murmured I'm interested in two of his French recruits which could turn out to be his top Supreme horse. Capodanno and Gentlemen De Mee. I've already backed the latter TWAR but both are available at 50/1 which may look a bargain after their debuts. Anyone else have thoughts on these two ?
Trainer/owner profile i think Capodanno could be a county horse? But if good enough why not go for the supreme.
Gentlemen de mee, is in my tracker and waiting to see what if any entries come up and haven't pulled the trigger on him yet entries, but I think his price might go as soon as that happens.
Only speculating with both and not as clued in as loads of contributors to this forum but that's my opinion at this stage.
edit - maybe doesn't qualify for county? Maybe some sort of handicap?
Last edited by Big Bucks; 24 November 2020, 09:39 AM.
Trainer/owner profile i think Capodanno could be a county horse? But if good enough why not go for the supreme.
Gentlemen de mee, is in my tracker and waiting to see what if any entries come up and haven't pulled the trigger on him yet entries, but I think his price might go as soon as that happens.
Only speculating with both and not as clued in as loads of contributors to this forum but that's my opinion at this stage.
JP just loves a Supreme horse so owned by the right man. I'm warming to this. Hopefully he'll be declared Thursday and we'll see what he's made of. I'll risk him at 50's. Rude not to !!
Apart from Ferney Hollow, who everyone knows about, one suspects that Mullins hasn't played his full hand yet in the Supreme. He normally unleashes his best around Xmas time so what can we expect to turn up. Picking out little bits that Willie and Patrick have murmured I'm interested in two of his French recruits which could turn out to be his top Supreme horse. Capodanno and Gentlemen De Mee. I've already backed the latter TWAR but both are available at 50/1 which may look a bargain after their debuts. Anyone else have thoughts on these two ?
Gentleman De Mee looks to fall into that Category of 'whatever he does over hurdles is a bonus', he could be a very useful chaser, has a lovely pedigree, and his hurdles debut in France has been franked a few times since (albeit mostly over fences).
Gentleman De Mee looks to fall into that Category of 'whatever he does over hurdles is a bonus', he could be a very useful chaser, has a lovely pedigree, and his hurdles debut in France has been franked a few times since (albeit mostly over fences).
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