Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

[The King Pimm]

The going was heavy today at Cork so you wouldn’t expect any horse to be accelerating through the mud. I thought he wasn’t pushed too hard too win and there’s more to come from Appreciate It.

[Dandrew99]

Willie said AI will come on for the run, you'd assume BO was much fitter or he wouldn't have taken on FH.

Was decent enough without being anything overly exciting. I think his next run will tell us more (hopefully over further).

[nortonscoin200]

Fakiera 25-1 PP Bartlett & 33-1 Ballymore.
When you consider he's a second season novice and possibly just beat one or two decent types.
These prices looks big.

https://www.irishracing.com/news?headline=Fakiera-finishes-with-a-flourish-in-%27Monksfield%27&prid=213723

Keith comments after the race.

Hills still 20-1 Fakiera TWAR

[JackieMoon33]

At least Mullins managed to get one of his French novice hurdlers to win this weekend. Does anyone have any thoughts on Ganapathi after that win today? I don’t recall him being mentioned previously so I’m not sure what to make of it.

I’m not saying they are all expected to be top drawer but, given the connections, Willie’s French recruits have been a bit hit and miss so far this season. I doubt there is much to read into it but Ganapathi seems to have been absent on here and in the stable tours (never been on my radar) but he put up one of the best performances. He could be the one to take out of all the debuts although most of them will need to be judged on their second starts.

Gaillard Du Mesnil - Beaten
Youmdor - Victorious
Galopin Des Champs - Beaten
Gars En Noir - Beaten
Ganapathi - Victorious
Grand Bornand - Beaten

[nortonscoin200]

Loved the Fire Attack performance, less so that of Farouk D'Alene, who would be more akin to a handicap than a top novice hurdle.

Praying they choose to go down in trip next time out with Fire Attack, who I really like.

Like you CoD, I really liked Fire Attack and I'd love to see him back over two miles.

But I just wonder how he can win at the Festival next year.

Will he be good enough for the Supreme? Possibly.

Or would the County be his best shout.

Four of the last nine winners have been novices.

Bottom weight is usually running off about 133 and he'll be on about 140 in Ireland after that - so maybe his mark is already blown.

I see he's now best price 25-1 for the Ballymore and 33-1 for the Supreme - after that performance I'd be thinking Supreme but not sure I want to chase those odds to beat Ferny Hollow.

[ComplyOrDie]

Like you CoD, I really liked Fire Attack and I'd love to see him back over two miles.

But I just wonder how he can win at the Festival next year.

Will he be good enough for the Supreme? Possibly.

Or would the County be his best shout.

Four of the last nine winners have been novices.

Bottom weight is usually running off about 133 and he'll be on about 140 in Ireland after that - so maybe his mark is already blown.

I see he's now best price 25-1 for the Ballymore and 33-1 for the Supreme - after that performance I'd be thinking Supreme but not sure I want to chase those odds to beat Ferny Hollow.

I'm perplexed as to what the plan is for him tbh.

The quotes (and my own opinion) had me believe he'd be a Supreme hope, then they shove him in a 2m 4f Grade 2 first time up. For all that it was a cracking run, and he's clearly talented, as I was expecting, it is somewhat mystifying that they have potentially ruined a mark for him with that run. He could obviously end up a Ballymore hope.

Bit of luck they'll put him in a 2m maiden next time out

[BigChaang]

Disappointing run from Farouk but really think he needs a good end to end gallop to be seen at his best, that was a snails pace which contributed to him jumping to his right & turned into a sprint which was never gonna suit him.

Disappointing nonetheless but I’m not gonna give up on him for the AB until we see him over a truly run 3m!

Agree with you Sean., Farouk D seemed to jump straighter towards the end of the race as the pace picked up .

[Guest]

I'm perplexed as to what the plan is for him tbh.

The quotes (and my own opinion) had me believe he'd be a Supreme hope, then they shove him in a 2m 4f Grade 2 first time up. For all that it was a cracking run, and he's clearly talented, as I was expecting, it is somewhat mystifying that they have potentially ruined a mark for him with that run. He could obviously end up a Ballymore hope.

Bit of luck they'll put him in a 2m maiden next time out

Hi CoD,

If they are planning to get him handicapped for a 2m race, next time he could be over 2m4f again.... get beaten again and then he's a really interesting County Hurdle horse?

If he's a Supreme horse, surely gets entered over 2m next time and wins...


His next entry (declaration) should tell us a lot?


I thought he was really good today, although it is easy to get lured in by horses that travel the best and don't find, I think the drop back in trip is just what he needs. he definitely ran creditably and hindsight may well show that it was just a genuine 2 miler, running too far this early in his career to be seen at his best?

[BigChaang]

His next entry is the Royal bond next sunday , but would have thought thats too soon after today's run.

[Guest]

His next entry is the Royal bond next sunday , but would have thought thats too soon after today's run.

Hi BC,

Sorry, should have said declaration not entry

I will edit that.

[JackieMoon33]

Anybody got any ideas what Joseph O’Brien is up to with his novice hurdlers this season? He’s leaving it fairly late to get his better bumper horses out and starting Fire Attack out in a Grade 3 on debut is also an interesting move. I’ve not seen any entries for Uhtred or Forged In Fire and the only entry Eric Bloodaxe has is in the Royal Bond.

Is this normal for him to hold them back or is he trying something new so that they’re primed for the end of season festivals?

So it seems that despite the strange entry, Joseph’s are at least coming out and running to a decent level as Fire Attack put up a fine debut display. I’m not a backer and won’t be now but it’s encouraging that the stable are ready. Eric Bloodaxe has an entry in the Royal Bond next weekend and it would be telling if he takes it up. I’m a backer of his for the Ballymore and at 50/1 it’s a great price in my eyes. With Fire Attack likely to drop to 2m and Joseph also having weapons at that trip, I think Eric could be the one to move up in trip. He’s not short of pace either and has a plenty of speed in his pedigree, but he looked like he stayed well in his bumper wins last season.

[Eggs]

...a little surprised Fire Attack remains @ 27-1 (with boost) in Hills a/r market when 365 have it at 25-1 for Supreme.

[nortonscoin200]

So it seems that despite the strange entry, Joseph’s are at least coming out and running to a decent level as Fire Attack put up a fine debut display. I’m not a backer and won’t be now but it’s encouraging that the stable are ready. Eric Bloodaxe has an entry in the Royal Bond next weekend and it would be telling if he takes it up. I’m a backer of his for the Ballymore and at 50/1 it’s a great price in my eyes. With Fire Attack likely to drop to 2m and Joseph also having weapons at that trip, I think Eric could be the one to move up in trip. He’s not short of pace either and has a plenty of speed in his pedigree, but he looked like he stayed well in his bumper wins last season.

Sorely tempted by Eric Bloodaxe Jackie - 50-1 is a great price based on his bumper form.

Can quite see why you suggest Ballymore but is there a danger he could end up in the Supreme. He's 50-1 for that too.

Assume Giggs are going to split up Eric, Uhtred and Forged in Fire between the two races. They all look more likely candidates for the Ballymore imo but is the Eric's Royal Bond entry a clue to their thinking at the moment that he could be their Supreme horse and the others go Ballymore or - less likely the AB.

Maybe the way to go is to back him in both with cash out and see how it plays out.

Be interested in your thoughts.

[JackieMoon33]

Sorely tempted by Eric Bloodaxe Jackie - 50-1 is a great price based on his bumper form.

Can quite see why you suggest Ballymore but is there a danger he could end up in the Supreme. He's 50-1 for that too.

Assume Giggs are going to split up Eric, Uhtred and Forged in Fire between the two races. They all look more likely candidates for the Ballymore imo but is the Eric's Royal Bond entry a clue to their thinking at the moment that he could be their Supreme horse and the others go Ballymore or - less likely the AB.

Maybe the way to go is to back him in both with cash out and see how it plays out.

Be interested in your thoughts.

At the prices and with cash out, backing both the Supreme and Ballymore is certainly worthwhile. The Royal Bond entry does not mean a whole lot to me with regards to future trips but if he was to win (I’m in no way suggesting he will), then they may keep going at 2m until he got beaten. From a trends perspective, the Royal Bond possibly favours horses ending up in the Ballymore anyway so that’s why it would not signal either trip at present.

This is how I’d see their line up if they’re all fit come March and prove good enough:

Supreme: Uhtred and Fire Attack
Ballymore: Eric Bloodaxe and Fire Attack as a possible.
Albert Bartlett: Forged In Fire and Farouk D’alene

Wide Receiver is the horse that could be very good but will be the handbrake job in my opinion. I don’t rate Fantasio D’alene but he could be an Albert Bartlett horse too.

[Eggs]

Sorely tempted by Eric Bloodaxe Jackie - 50-1 is a great price based on his bumper form.

Can quite see why you suggest Ballymore but is there a danger he could end up in the Supreme. He's 50-1 for that too.

Assume Giggs are going to split up Eric, Uhtred and Forged in Fire between the two races. They all look more likely candidates for the Ballymore imo but is the Eric's Royal Bond entry a clue to their thinking at the moment that he could be their Supreme horse and the others go Ballymore or - less likely the AB.

Maybe the way to go is to back him in both with cash out and see how it plays out.

Be interested in your thoughts.

...I understand JoB also has another relatively high-profile and expensive juvenile in Keskonrisk. Not sure if its good enough for March.

i hope EB is of that standard, not least for the 470-1 Fury Road a/r double offered by Hills.