Supreme/Ballymore/Albert Bartlett - Novice Hurdles 2021

[ToniC]

Not sure how many French horses that come from the flat have run in the Ballymore, but I know next to none (probably none) have won it.

I’ve got stats written down back to 2010 and there hasn’t been any in the last 11 festivals. 7/11 of the last winners have been from p2p backgrounds. 7/11 also had a full season in bumpers. Don’t know how that stacks up vs total runners unfortunately.

[ComplyOrDie]

I’ve got stats written down back to 2010 and there hasn’t been any in the last 11 festivals. 7/11 of the last winners have been from p2p backgrounds. 7/11 also had a full season in bumpers. Don’t know how that stacks up vs total runners unfortunately.

TBH I thought that may be the case, cheers

[JackieMoon33]

TBH I thought that may be the case, cheers

The races that Gaillard Du Mesnil was running in are the equivalent to Junior Bumpers though, not traditional Flat races.

[ComplyOrDie]

The races that Gaillard Du Mesnil was running in are the equivalent to Junior Bumpers though, not traditional Flat races.

That may be so, but even them sort of races don't turn up Ballymore winners. It's mostly Irish bred who aren't from the PTP sphere or general PTP horses, where country of breeding then becomes irrelevant.

The last 10 winners of the race had either come from the PTP sphere or were from bumpers but were Irish bred only.

The Supreme is almost the complete opposite, with the emphases on speed, the French breds have been in a league of their own in recent years, with of course the odd exception.

I'm sure you are aware of this all though as I know you do your research too

[JackieMoon33]

That may be so, but even them sort of races don't turn up Ballymore winners. It's mostly Irish bred who aren't from the PTP sphere or general PTP horses, where country of breeding then becomes irrelevant.

The last 10 winners of the race had either come from the PTP sphere or were from bumpers but were Irish bred only.

The Supreme is almost the complete opposite, with the emphases on speed, the French breds have been in a league of their own in recent years, with of course the odd exception.

I'm sure you are aware of this all though as I know you do your research too

I don’t put much weighting on stats when it comes to where a horse started its career but I respect the process. My question would be; why can’t horses from that background be good enough to win a Ballymore?

[archie]

Stats have their place but usually in combination.

The best Ballymore/Neptune winner in the last 25 years was a flat bred.

[Run4Home]

Mark Howard advices an antepost punt on Galopin Des Champs for both the Supreme and Ballymore today.

Mark was the first person this year in fairness to him who flagged up the horse in his top 40 a few months back

[ComplyOrDie]

I don’t put much weighting on stats when it comes to where a horse started its career but I respect the process. My question would be; why can’t horses from that background be good enough to win a Ballymore?

I don't honestly know the answer, but it seems to be the case, more so in recent times, and it's not through a lack of French imports that's for sure.

[Lobos]

Was on the Cheltenham members zoom meeting last night. Ruby wasn't too excited about the value of the Bumper Form and neither was Fitzgerald. Both of them think Third Time Lucki will struggle to win this weekend. Ruby did say Ferney and Appreciate It will be kept apart.

[ComplyOrDie]

Stats have their place but usually in combination.

The best Ballymore/Neptune winner in the last 25 years was a flat bred.

No issue with flat breds winning any hurdle race tbh. They've shown up plenty over the years

[JackieMoon33]

I don't honestly know the answer, but it seems to be the case, more so in recent times, and it's not through a lack of French imports that's for sure.

I have no issue with stats and trends punters but I only use them occasionally, especially with long range ante post punting. I’m not fussed what a horses nationality is as long as I think it can run fast and ideally, faster than the other horses it will face

[EnvoyAllen]

Perhaps if Gavin Lynch puts up 50/1 shot ‘Ngolo’ for the Supreme next week (Ricci/Mullins), they could call the show Upping the Kante.

Ahem.

[Lobos]

Perhaps if Gavin Lynch puts up 50/1 shot ‘Ngolo’ for the Supreme next week (Ricci/Mullins), they could call the show Upping the Kante.

Ahem.

Ruby mentioned N'Golo for the Supreme last night. Said he's a big improver and that he'll go Royal Bond next. He also said lots of Mullins novices are behind because of Covid break. Some may well have to wait until later in season or next season. Imo the novices that have started early this season are at a big advantage.

[YoungHustler]

Thankyou sir.
out of interest, does he suggest imperial aura as a gold cup horse ??

No worries, here you go. I think the main aim will be the Ryanair as he's aiming Vinndication at the Gold Cup.

Imperial Aura
7g Kalanisi - Missindependence
Imperial Racing Partnership 2016
31221-1
RPR 162c OR 157c
We trained him to win the novice handicap chase at Cheltenham last year and it's not often those sort of plans come to fruition. He's a far stronger horse this year and I was unbelievably impressed with his jumping on his comeback at Carlisle. The Paddy Power Gold Cup would have come far too soon for him and either the Chanelle Pharma Chase [formerly Christy 1965 Chase] at Ascot or the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon will be next. He gets three miles, I'm not worried about that, and he's just a lovely horse. Cheltenham in March is the ultimate aim again.

Vinndication
7g Vinnie Roe - Pawnee Trail
Moremoneythan
135/14-2
RPR 165c OR 161c
He started to show what we've always believed him to be capable of last year but he bruised a bone after winning at Ascot and took a long time to come back. He probably went to Cheltenham one gallop short but ran a blinder to be fourth in the Ultima. I was thrilled with his comeback in the Charlie Hall, where he slipped going into the first and took a bit of time to get going. He's an out-and-out stayer but jumps better out of good ground. The plan is very much to go for the Gold Cup, which I think will suit him and is where I'm working back from. The handicapper hasn't raised him for Wetherby and, while the Ladbrokes Trophy is always a very hard race, the benefit if we do run there is that he has a run under his belt. He's going to do a lot of schooling between now and then to sharpen him up and give him more confidence, and the horse will tell us where he wants to go.

[Lobos]

Mullins nominated Galoping des Champs as one of his top five horses to follow this season. He mentions the Staying division.