Fat Jockey Podcast - Ferny Hollow

[Kevloaf]

Welcome to the first Fat jockey Podcast!

• Episode 1 - Ferny Hollow: is he a good bet at 10/1 in The Arkle - with Kevloaf , Spectre and jono

Right off the bat, these will get a lot better... (we hope) .

In a nutshell, we want to bring the debate and discussions that make this forum so fantastic, to life!

To get the ball rolling, we picked Ferny Hollow to discuss... and we'll record a few more next week too keep the ball rolling! The plan, moving forwards, is for any Fat Jockey member to get involved, join us on the videos and put a hot topic, debate or case forward for us to all discuss!

We hope you enjoy it, we're aware it's very raw and do welcome any thoughts and comments about the format. The 'tech' and 'hardware' will definitely be better qaulity next time, we had to use Teams which was far from ideal...and absolutely my fault

Anyway, here it is.... I only got about 10 seconds in to watching it back and couldn't get any further... so I'll be posting this and logging out for about 6 months while I recover from the severe cringe factor.

[Hardy Eustace]

Absolutely brilliant gents - can’t wait to watch this. 3 of the finest fat jockeys out there. What’s not to love?!

[Fouroverthrutwo]

Looking forward to watching but looking forward more to see whether I've matched the face to the name! Good work fellas - a breath of fresh air

[Scooby91]

Thanks for making me aware of this, and well done for putting yourselves out there.

Maybe add a poll to what percentage of people think ferny hollow would have bettered appreciate it as a Nov hurdler.

I watched to the end, and think that's an outrageous claim myself, however would be interesting to see how many people think that may well have been the case.

[isitmarchyet]

Haven't had the chance to watch yet, but just want to give you all some respect for having the guts to actually do this. You're all much braver than me. Really looking forward to watching.

[Zachx02]

Going to give a watch now to kill some time before I go out tonight, am sure it will be a good watch gents thanks for putting it together, personally think WITH cashout a good bet as if he wins his chase debut, you will be able to get out at full stake if it comes out that he is being plotted for the marsh later in the season

[Istabraq]

Great job fellas, very enjoyable.

I vote he’s a bad bet and that Jono needs a haircut.
And how does the pig Western ‘kin warhorse get a mention in the very first FJ podcast ?

[ToniC]

Nicely done gents. Would never have the stones, especially not on video

[Eggs]

….I’ve had a few Aussie Whites so will hit the sack in the next hour and have a listen. I’ll cast my vote & if all fails it will at least drown out the fireworks. Well done fellas.

[charlie]

Great podcast chaps, I really enjoyed that, well done for getting it up and running and sharing your views digitally - I think this will be an exciting addition to the forum moving forward. I haven't answered the poll yet because I'm in two minds. Kind of long response, but you've dedicated fair time to this so I thought I'd follow suit and see what others think.

I found myself completely agreeing with Kev throughout a lot of that, despite not wanting to and having backed Ferny @ 14/1
Kev is spot on in that there is loads we don't know and 10/1 for a horse with no experience over fences, limited experience over obstacles and coming back from injury for a well known yard smacks of a hype horse we'll discuss and then forget, very quickly. We get these horses every year and backing them cannot be a profitable long term strategy - therefore it must fall under a bad bet....

......or does it? To coin a quote by Mr Brent, 'I judge everything on it's individual merits' - so whilst I agree with Kev on the one hand, I think it's possible to disagree on the other. Appreciate It has a lot more substance than Ferny which is why a lot of Kev's points are hard to counter and are spot on. When you weigh up AI's ability and what he could be over fences, we have tons more to go on which informs the price, and people can be confident in AI because he has the solid pillars Ferny does not have. Winning the supreme the way AI did is a solid pillar, and whilst we don't have those pillars with Ferny, I do think there are enough small points and positives that when brought together collectively, leave Ferny with a profile that makes him backable at 10/1 as an individual good bet, when most other Mullins 'hype horses' wouldn't be.

Jono's point was excellent - you couldn't name two novices that are better to have beaten than Appreciate It and BO. Fences will be a different ball game, and whilst thats certainly not conclusive in any way, it's solid and relevant that he's run to a very high level twice. Ferny is owned by CPS and I don't think that got a mention. They have dominated the NH chase game with a very small number of horses. It's not a big point, but it's certainly relevant. Whilst bumper form can often go in the bin, Ferny won impressively at Cheltenham which proves he handles the course. It's not a massive tick, but handling the course counts as a good positive, and he posted a very good RPR which is minor. He cost 300k and is by a horse thats produced plenty of 160's chasers, inc an Arkle winner. He obviously has to prove he can reach that level and it's certainly not a given or a big point, but it's also certainly relevant. He's trained by Willie Mullins who has won 4 out of the last 7 runnings of this race. Huge tick cause he's obviously in the right hands. Even anecdotal stuff like PM saying he's the most exciting horse in their yard would be in the back of my mind.

There's nothing above you could make a strong case with, but together, it informs a bigger picture of potential ability.

This is a really interesting video because I think there is a wider point at play here. Ferny is a poster child of how shit the bookmakers are with ante post prices. i'd love 33/1 about Ferny, or 25/1 or 16/1, but what are the chances the bookies would ever entertain this price given his profile? 10 years ago he would be a much bigger price, so as punters this debate is an interesting one as there are two trade offs: actual substance vs potential ability; finding value vs FOMO.

I debated taking 14/1 long and hard and wrapped Ferny up at 10/1 in a few roll ups so if I select 'bad bet' I'd feel like a hypocrite, but if I had to pick good or bad, it would have to be bad, but I do think there are horses with profiles and plus points that can collectively make prices that are lower than you'd like, attractive.

[Dandrew99]

Has any mans voice ever gone higher than when Kev said "MY DROGO?!"

Great job lads, good listen

[Quevega]

Excellent effort lads. I listened to it all and would subscribe.
I was concerned how you’d fill the time on such a topic.
However, I should have known better as this forum can spend days and weeks discussing hypothetical things never mind wether a horse is a good bet or not.
In comparison to other similar broadcasts it was decent.
obviously won’t be voting.
ps, your voices are weird

[Eggs]

…I’ve listened, terrific entertainment.

I’ve voted a ‘bad bet’ mainly because I took 33-1 Ferny to win Arkle with PP on 15th Mar this year. I presume others hold the same voucher, I wouldn’t be going in at 10-1 without an entry over fences.

In respect of the discussion, I know we’re not vets but we seem to have little knowledge of the type of injury Ferny had. If it was a footballer with a hamstring or ACL, we’d have a view on the prognosis, yet it’s something we rarely touch on with horses.

This podcast has me fast forwarding to pre-Festival FJ Preview night, genuinely could be up there with the best. Excellent stuff. Start planning Kevloaf.

[That Horse]

Really enjoyed listening to this, if you're in need of any future topics to discuss, it'd be great to hear you guys talk about;

- national hunt chase, any value here?
- old course v new course, how much of a difference does it make, what horses or horse types would suit either?

- Energumene in the champion chase, good or bad bet?

[opatcho]

Great stuff guys!!!

For me, I don’t back novices coming back from injury / disrupted campaigns
Though enough for these novices going into open company, never mind novices that have been out for most of the season