Tracking 2021 Odds

[Craigy14]

Its a scary thing to look back on, but useful nonetheless.

Completely agree mate.

Will definitely make me think twice backing any more 2021 bets until the season is back up and running!

[Spectre]

Cash out is to get out when you need to, and Betfair is to trade a profit Craig. There's absolutely no need to wait until 2021 when you can have 16, 20,25, 33/1 prices onside for horses that will potentially trade at single figures or go off favourite. The key is being on top of it throughout the season, and being on a forum like this is a massive help for clarity of thinking, and quick reactions.

[Kevloaf]

Exactly, it highlights that you should be looking away from the head of the markets, rather than not doing anything?



Then again, not doing anything until October would certainly not do you any harm, it is part and parcel you'll miss some opportunities however people have proven then can make that work! I don't think Jono has got going yet, and he always makes a decent profit.

[Saxon Warrior]

Cash out is to get out when you need to, and Betfair is to trade a profit Craig. There's absolutely no need to wait until 2021 when you can have 16, 20,25, 33/1 prices onside for horses that will potentially trade at single figures or go off favourite. The key is being on top of it throughout the season, and being on a forum like this is a massive help for clarity of thinking, and quick reactions.

[Saxon Warrior]

Exactly, it highlights that you should be looking away from the head of the markets, rather than not doing anything?



Then again, not doing anything until October would certainly not do you any harm, it is part and parcel you'll miss some opportunities however people have proven then can make that work! I don't think Jono has got going yet, and he always makes a decent profit.

At this time of year, and right up to the season starting proper, I begin each Oddschecker viewing of each of the Festival races, from the bottom of the market, then moving upwards to the favourites.

I am after big priced horses, with cashout or Betfair trading potential, to sift through, and then read their breeding, form, and watch the videos.

Looking at the top of the 2019 markets quoted above, there must be a lot of winners of Festival graded races not quoted at 20/1 or less in the full set of markets priced up for the Festival during October, November and December.

[Craigy14]

Yes I get not looking at the top of the markets, don’t think I explained it very well. Was just funny how much it changes so far out and shows betting so early may not be advisable.

More meaning the fact the markets change so much there’s no need to get stuck in so early and waiting until nh is proper up and running around October time is probably better.

[Humble Pie]

Yes I get not looking at the top of the markets, don’t think I explained it very well. Was just funny how much it changes so far out and shows betting so early may not be advisable.

More meaning the fact the markets change so much there’s no need to get stuck in so early and waiting until nh is proper up and running around October time is probably better.

Up to the individual and what you’re comfortable with Craigy

Personally I’m in both feet

Horses like Abacadabras and Monkfish I’ve backed and now halved in prices
Majority of bets with 365 so Cash Out option

[Kotkijet]

While trawling through the British Newspaper Archive earlier today, I saw an advert from the 13th of January 1984 in the Sligo Champion. It was for Mr Ed Killian and had the ante-post markets for the Champion Hurdle, Gold Cup and Triumph Hurdle. This is how it looked...

Gold Cup
3/1 Wayward Lad PU 6/4f op 11/10
9/2 Bregawn 6th 10/1 op 8/1 tchd 12/1
12/1 Brown Chamberlain 2nd 5/1 op 9/2
12/1 Captain John
12/1 Observe 9th 16/1 op 20/1
12/1 Silver Buck
16/1 Burrough Hill Lad 1st 7/2 op 5/1
20/1 Fifty Dollars More 5th 28/1 op 25/1 tchd 33/1
33/1 Little Owl
33/1 Royal Bond 8th 33/1 op 25/1
33/1 Dromlargan (sic) 3rd 16/1 op 14/1 tchd 20/1
40/1 Elligoarty

Champion Hurdle
5/4 Gaye Brief
7/2 Dawn Run 1st 4/5 tchd EVS
12/1 Amarach 7th 14/1 tchd 16/1
16/1 Boreen Prince 8th 16/1
16/1 Very Promising 3rd 16/1 op 12/1
20/1 Fame Ranger (sic)
25/1 Buck House 4th 18/1 op 14/1 tchd 20/1
25/1 Boreen Deas
40/1 Skis Double
50/1 Al Kuwait
50/1 Cima 2nd 66/1
50/1 Robin Wonder

Triumph Hurdle
16/1 Pacifiste
16/1 Rare Dual
16/1 Childown PU 9/1 op 7/1
20/1 Broad Beam UR 33/1
25/1 Northern Game 1st 20/1 tchd 25/1
25/1 Star Of Ireland unplaced 66/1
25/1 Dodgy Future unplaced 40/1 op 33/1
30/1 Easter Lee unplaced 20/1 op 16/1
40/1 Gallant Buck unplaced 66/1
40/1 Paris North

Amusingly, if you backed every runner blind, you would emerge with a healthy 13.5 level stakes profit...

[BigChaang]

4-1 becomes 3-1 at Paddy power /betfair for Envoi allen in the Marsh.

[Lobos]

4-1 becomes 3-1 at Paddy power /betfair for Envoi allen in the Marsh.

Wowsers. He must be going that route. That is seriously short.

[billymag]

To be fair we were still guessing a similar route with another of the owners horses till the final decs last year, encouraging signs for backers but after the Alloha entry last year I would be wary personally.

[Saxon Warrior]

To be fair we were still guessing a similar route with another of the owners horses till the final decs last year, encouraging signs for backers but after the Alloha entry last year I would be wary personally.

Agreed. Us Antepost backers often try to get one or two winners sorted out in our own minds as soon as each Festival finishes. If only life was that simple all the time.

[Might_Bite]

Most places now go 3s on Envoi (MARSH), Sky 7/2 and apparently Unibet are the last with 4s

[EnvoyAllen]

Most places now go 3s on Envoi (MARSH), Sky 7/2 and apparently Unibet are the last with 4s

I couldn’t believe it 2 months ago when Paddy P was just about the last company offering 9/2 for EA in the Marsh, which i hoovered up pretty much every day. SkyBet at the time were the only one’s do be as short as 7/2.

Now look - that 7/2 hasn’t moved and is ya best bet!!

It’s always subjective - some will say the price is ridiculously short for a horse who hasn’t jumped a fence (disregarding his point to point success) and it’s still not sure which route he’ll go, others will look at his price as it stands 7 months out and consider to be a potential bargain ageinst the likely prohibitive odds on price he’ll likely go off on the day should he be fit and run in the race.

Always 2 sides to each and every coin.

[Lobos]

I couldn’t believe it 2 months ago when Paddy P was just about the last company offering 9/2 for EA in the Marsh, which i hoovered up pretty much every day. SkyBet at the time were the only one’s do be as short as 7/2.

Now look - that 7/2 hasn’t moved and is ya best bet!!

It’s always subjective - some will say the price is ridiculously short for a horse who hasn’t jumped a fence (disregarding his point to point success) and it’s still not sure which route he’ll go, others will look at his price as it stands 7 months out and consider to be a potential bargain ageinst the likely prohibitive odds on price he’ll likely go off on the day should he be fit and run in the race.

Always 2 sides to each and every coin.

Still 5/2 to win either RSA or JLT