Tracking 2021 Odds

[Istabraq]

Something we've not done formally in the past is track ante post price changes.
This could be useful for various reasons but I, for one, have often laid out cash and held vouchers for months only to find the horse/horses can be backed at bigger prices on the day, tracking prices can help us understand what 'value' we're getting from taking a price without the NRNB and extra places.

At this stage only the level weights races are available.

Prices as at 20/3/20

Supreme:

Ferny Hollow 14
Appreciate It 16
Forged In Fire 20
Farouk DAlene 25
Flinteur Sacre 25
Malone Road 25
Bob Olinger 33
Deploy The Getaway 33
Eskylane 33
Gran Luna 33
Micro Manage 33
Risk Factor 33
Sir Gerhard 33
Third Time Lucki 33
Ballyadam 40

Arkle:

Shishkin 5
Envoi Allen 14
Abacadabras 16
Chantry House 20
Easywork 20
Klassical Dream 20
Captain Guinness 25
Darver Star 25
Pic Dorhy 33
Saint Roi 33
Asterion Forlonge 40
Energumene 40
Fiddlerontheroof 40
Fusil Raffles 40
Getaway Trump 40

Champion Hurdle:

Epatante 9/2
Goshen 6
Abacadabras 10
Envoi Allen 10
Honeysuckle 14
Shishkin 16
Benie Des Dieux 20
Buveur Dair 25
Saldier 25
Chantry House 33
Concertista 33
Darver Star 33
Elixir Dainay 33
Saint Roi 33
Sharjah 33
Klassical Dream 40

Mares Hurdle:

Honeysuckle 4
Benie Des Dieux 5
Concertista 10
Dame De Compagnie 12
Burning Victory 20
Elfile 25
Indefatigable 25
Maries Rock 25
Colreevy 33
Gypsy Island 33
Minella Melody 33
Roksana 33
Stormy Ireland 40
Clondaw Caitlin 50
Dolcita 50

NH Chase:

Fury Road 12
Latest Exhibition 12
Monkfish 12
Thyme Hill 14
Cobblers Way 40
Janidil 50
Lieutenant Rocco 50
Redford Road 50
Sempo 50
The Wolf 50
Aione 66

Ballymore:

Appreciate It 16
Ferny Hollow 16
Bob Olinger 25
Eskylane 25
Forged In Fire 25
Ballyadam 33
Deploy The Getaway 33
Farouk DAlene 33
Fire Attack 33
Malone Road 33
Sir Gerhard 33
Eric Bloodaxe 40
Third Time Lucki 40
Israel Champ 50

RSA:

Envoi Allen 7
Monkfish 12
Latest Exhibition 16
Fury Road 20
The Big Getaway 25
Thyme Hill 25
Column Of Fire 33
Diol Ker 33
Lord Royal 33
Paisley Park 33
Pileon 33
Run Wild Fred 33
The Big Breakaway 33
Dickie Diver 40
Glynn 40

QM Champion Chase:

Chacun Pour Soi 6
Altior 8
Defi Du Seuil 14
A Plus Tard 20
Allaho 20
Politologue 20
Put The Kettle On 20
Fakir Doudairies 25
Melon 25
Min 25
Chosen Mate 33
Dynamite Dollars 33
Samcro 33
Annamix 40
Cash Back 40

Marsh:

Envoi Allen 6
Shishkin 12
Honeysuckle 16
The Big Getaway 16
Easywork 20
Monkfish 20
Chantry House 25
Asterion Forlonge 33
Fiddlerontheroof 33
Sporting John 40
Allart 50
Longhouse Poet 50
Mossy Fen 50
The Big Breakaway 50

Ryanair:

Min 10
Allaho 14
Samcro 14
A Plus Tard 16
Real Steel 16
Altior 20
Clan Des Obeaux 20
Defi Du Seuil 20
Melon 20
Riders On the Storm 20
Saint Calvados 20
Cyrname 25
Imperial Aura 25
Simply The Betts 25
Angels Breath 33

Stayers Hurdle:

Benie Des Dieux 8
Envoi Allen 8
Paisley Park 9
Honeysuckle 10
Thyme Hill 16
Goshen 20
Ronald Pump 20
Sire Du Berlais 20
Latest Exhibition 25
Lisnagar Oscar 25
McFabulous 25
Monkfish 25
Summerville Boy 25
City Island 33
Column Of Fire 33

Gold Cup:

Al Boum Photo 6
Santini 8
Champ 14
Lostintranslation 16
Minella Indo 16
Topofthegame 20
Allaho 25
Benie Des Deaux 25
Delta Work 25
Samcro 25
Easysland 33
Put The Kettle On 33
Simply The Betts 33
Benie Des Dieux 40
Clan Des Obeaux 40

[Kevloaf]

Yep, good idea.

[BigChaang]

Istabraq , Are you going to Update these prices monthly ??.
Or are we all going to add any changes at any time ??.
Just asking for Clarity ...

[Istabraq]

It was my intention to update regularly BC, that being monthly or after a big event, though it’s unlikely there’ll be much movement on any price for a while...

[BigChaang]

O.k Great , Yes , i wouldn't be expecting too much activity for a while

[Priceiskey]

Good stuff.

[Istabraq]

As at 10th April:

Shishkin (Arkle) now best price 4/1

Epatante (Champion Hurdle) 4/1

Ballyadam (Ballymore) 20/1

Monkfish (RSA) 10/1
Fury Road (RSA) 16/1

Envoi Allen (Marsh) 5/1

A Plus Tard (Ryanair) 12/1
Allaho (Ryanair) 14/1
Samcro (Ryanair) 12/1

Paisley Park (Stayers) 7/1
Sire de Berlais (Stayers) 16/1
McFabulous (Stayers) 20/1

[Ray]

I thought Bright Forecast is a great price for the RSA @ 40/1

[Istabraq]

Unsurprisingly no huge movement though targets for one or two novices may be looking clearer.
I think the idea is to have updated odds added to all the race threads when they're up so this thread will likely disappear but until that happens we'll update every now and then.

Prices as at 2/6/20

Supreme:

Ferny Hollow 12
Appreciate It 16
Forged In Fire 20
Farouk DAlene 25
Flinteur Sacre 25
Malone Road 25
Bob Olinger 33
Deploy The Getaway 40
Eskylane 33
Gran Luna 33
Micro Manage 33
Risk Factor 40
Sir Gerhard 33
Third Time Lucki 33
Ballyadam 33

Arkle:

Shishkin 4
Envoi Allen 14
Abacadabras 25
Chantry House 20
Easywork 25
Klassical Dream 25
Captain Guinness 20
Darver Star 25
Pic Dorhy 33
Saint Roi 33
Asterion Forlonge 40
Energumene 40
Fiddlerontheroof 40
Fusil Raffles 40
Getaway Trump 40

Champion Hurdle:

Epatante 4/1
Goshen 6
Abacadabras 8
Envoi Allen 14
Honeysuckle 16
Shishkin 16
Benie Des Dieux 25
Buveur Dair 25
Saldier 25
Chantry House 33
Concertista 33
Darver Star 40
Elixir Dainay 33
Saint Roi 25
Sharjah 25
Klassical Dream 40

Mares Hurdle:

Honeysuckle 4
Benie Des Dieux 5
Lautonmie 8
Concertista 10
Dame De Compagnie 12
Burning Victory 20
Robin de Carlow 16
Blak Tears 20
Elfile 25
Indefatigable 25
Maries Rock 33
Colreevy 33
Gypsy Island 33
Minella Melody 33
Roksana 33
Stormy Ireland 40
Clondaw Caitlin 50
Dolcita 50

NH Chase:

Fury Road 16
Latest Exhibition 16
Monkfish 12
Thyme Hill 14
Sams Profile 20
Cracking Smart 20
Run Wild Fred 20
Column of Fire 25
Five Oclock 25
Diol Ker 25
The Big Breakaway 25
The Big Getaway 25
Eskylane 25
Next Destination 33
Aione 33

Ballymore:

Appreciate It 16
Ferny Hollow 14
Bob Olinger 25
Eskylane 25
Forged In Fire 25
Ballyadam 20
Deploy The Getaway 40
Farouk DAlene 33
Fire Attack 33
Malone Road 33
Sir Gerhard 40
Eric Bloodaxe 50
Third Time Lucki 40
Israel Champ 50

RSA:

Envoi Allen 7
Monkfish 10
Latest Exhibition 16
Fury Road 16
The Big Getaway 25
Thyme Hill 20
Column Of Fire 40
Diol Ker 20
Lord Royal 33
Paisley Park 33
Pileon 33
Run Wild Fred 33
The Big Breakaway 33
Dickie Diver 66
Glynn 40

QM Champion Chase:

Chacun Pour Soi 5
Altior 8
Defi Du Seuil 14
A Plus Tard 16
Allaho 20
Politologue 20
Put The Kettle On 20
Fakir Doudairies 25
Melon 25
Min 25
Chosen Mate 33
Dynamite Dollars 33
Samcro 33
Annamix 50
Cash Back 40

Marsh:

Envoi Allen 9/2
Shishkin 12
Honeysuckle 16
The Big Getaway 16
Easywork 25
Monkfish 20
Chantry House 20
Asterion Forlonge 33
Fiddlerontheroof 33
Sporting John 40
Allart 50
Longhouse Poet 50
Mossy Fen 50

Ryanair:

LostinTranslation 8
Min 10
Allaho 14
Samcro 12
A Plus Tard 10
Real Steel 16
Altior 25
Clan Des Obeaux 20
Defi Du Seuil 20
Melon 20
Riders On the Storm 25
Saint Calvados 20
Cyrname 25
Imperial Aura 25
Simply The Betts 25
Angels Breath 25

Stayers Hurdle:

Benie Des Dieux 8
Envoi Allen 12
Paisley Park 7
Honeysuckle 12
Thyme Hill 16
Goshen 20
Ronald Pump 20
Sire Du Berlais 16
Latest Exhibition 25
Lisnagar Oscar 16
McFabulous 20
Monkfish 33
Summerville Boy 25
City Island 33
Column Of Fire 33

Gold Cup:

Al Boum Photo 6
Santini 7
Champ 12
Lostintranslation 14
Minella Indo 14
Topofthegame 16
Allaho 25
Benie Des Deaux 25
Delta Work 25
Samcro 25
Easysland 33
Simply The Betts 33
Benie Des Dieux 25
Clan Des Obeaux 40

[DeeBee]

Does anyone know the favourites for each race from last year and their prices as they were about this time last year? Or close to it. I’m intrigued to see the prices and if they compare to this years (and also how many went on to stay fav) cheers

[Saxon Warrior]

Dee Bee,

All I can find as a guide to early markets for the Cheltenham Festival 2020, a year ago, is from the Monday 18th March 2019 Racing Post, where post-Festival they all tip up an antepost bet for next seasons Festival and they also had the early Festival 2020 markets.

This would be pre-Aintree and pre-Punchestown, BUT as we havent had these this year, they are more relatable to this summers markets than usual.

First, on Monday 18th March 2020, the antepost tips from the Racing Post tipsters for Festival 2020 were:-

A Plus Tard
Espoir D'Allen
Frodon
Buveur D'Air
Bright Forecast
Klassical Dream
Top Of The Game
Al Dancer
Delta Work
Defi Du Seuil
Lostintranslation
Blue Sari

Results March 2020 - Nought out of 12.

--------------------------------------------

Now the early markets (best prices quoted) on Monday 18th March 2020 were:-

Supreme
Blue Sari 16/1
Andy Dufresne 20/1
Envoi Allen 20/1
Malone Road 20/1
Get In The Queue 33/1

Winner not quoted in the market at 33/1 or below, and none of them ran in the 2020 Supreme!

--------------------------

Ballymore
Envoi Allen 12/1
Andy Dufresne 20/1
Abacadabras 25/1
Blue Sari 25/1
Malone Road 25/1
Thyme Hill 33/1

Winner quoted as Fav here, but none of rest ran in the 2020 Ballymore

----------------------------

Arkle
Klassical Dream 8/1
Laurina 8/1
Champ 16/1
Samcro 16/1
Melon 20/1
Angels Breath 33/1

None of them ran in the 2020 Arkle!

--------------------------

Marsh Novice Chase
Klassical Dream 10/1
Melon 12/1
Allaho 16/1
Samcro 16/1

The winner and second of the 2020 Marsh were quoted in the top four of the opening market.

------------------------------

RSA Chase
Allaho 16/1
Commander of Fleet 16/1
Minella Indo 20/1
Next Destination 25/1
Not Many Left 25/1

The 2020 RSA 2nd and 3rd are quoted in the opening show in the top three.

------------------------

Champion Hurdle
Espoir D'Allen 6/1
Buveur D'Air 8/1
Klassical Dream 10/1
Melon 25/1
Apples Jade 25/1
Laurina 25/1
Fakir D'Oudairies 66/1

None ran in the 2020 Champion Hurdle!

------------------------

Ryanair Chase
Altior 10/1
Defi Du Seuil 10/1
Cyrname 12/1
Duc De Genievres 14/1
Frodon 16/1
Janika 16/1

None placed in the 2020 Ryanair.

----------------

Stayers Hurdle
Paisley Park 4/1
Penhill 14/1
City Island 20/1
Dickie Diver 25/1
Faugheen 25/1

None placed in the 2020 Stayers Hurdle.

----------------------

Gold Cup
Al Boum Photo 8/1
Top Of The Game 10/1
Santini 14/1
Presenting Percy 20/1
Altior 20/1

More accuracy here, with the winner and a placed horse in the first three in the market.

----------------------------

Champion Chase
Altior 3/1
Duc De Genievres 12/1
Sceau Royal 16/1
Cilaos Emery 16/1
Le Richebourg 20/1
Min 25/1
A Plus Tard 33/1
Glen Forsa 40/1
Dynamite Dollars 50/1
Hardline 66/1

You have to ask - where was Politologue? - but 50/1 Dynamite Dollars actually finished 2nd in the 2020 Champion Chase

--------------------------------------------

That's the lot, hope its useful.

[Hardy Eustace]

Amazing work SW!

[DeeBee]

Brilliant Saxon.. many thanks for doing that it’s exactly what I was looking for.

I guess it points to what others have eluded to which at this (still) very early stage.. the RSA and Gold Cup gives you more to go on

Coincidentally (bar Monksfish) that’s where I have yet to focus my bets as I’ve attempted to get some speculative multiples going across elsewhere

Time to look into the above a bit more now

[Saxon Warrior]

Brilliant Saxon.. many thanks for doing that it’s exactly what I was looking for.

I guess it points to what others have eluded to which at this (still) very early stage.. the RSA and Gold Cup gives you more to go on

Coincidentally (bar Monksfish) that’s where I have yet to focus my bets as I’ve attempted to get some speculative multiples going across elsewhere

Time to look into the above a bit more now

I could probably look through the Racing Post archive for when the flat racing disappeared after the Breeders Cup in early November, for another list.
Racing Post we’re doing markets for the late season flat races, all through October, so nothing much worth posting.

[Outlaw]

Top effort Saxon digging that out, amazing to think of the horses that didn't line up for looking at the early quotes.