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Tracking 2021 Odds

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  • Tracking 2021 Odds

    Something we've not done formally in the past is track ante post price changes.
    This could be useful for various reasons but I, for one, have often laid out cash and held vouchers for months only to find the horse/horses can be backed at bigger prices on the day, tracking prices can help us understand what 'value' we're getting from taking a price without the NRNB and extra places.

    At this stage only the level weights races are available.

    Prices as at 20/3/20

    Supreme:

    Ferny Hollow 14
    Appreciate It 16
    Forged In Fire 20
    Farouk DAlene 25
    Flinteur Sacre 25
    Malone Road 25
    Bob Olinger 33
    Deploy The Getaway 33
    Eskylane 33
    Gran Luna 33
    Micro Manage 33
    Risk Factor 33
    Sir Gerhard 33
    Third Time Lucki 33
    Ballyadam 40

    Arkle:

    Shishkin 5
    Envoi Allen 14
    Abacadabras 16
    Chantry House 20
    Easywork 20
    Klassical Dream 20
    Captain Guinness 25
    Darver Star 25
    Pic Dorhy 33
    Saint Roi 33
    Asterion Forlonge 40
    Energumene 40
    Fiddlerontheroof 40
    Fusil Raffles 40
    Getaway Trump 40

    Champion Hurdle:

    Epatante 9/2
    Goshen 6
    Abacadabras 10
    Envoi Allen 10
    Honeysuckle 14
    Shishkin 16
    Benie Des Dieux 20
    Buveur Dair 25
    Saldier 25
    Chantry House 33
    Concertista 33
    Darver Star 33
    Elixir Dainay 33
    Saint Roi 33
    Sharjah 33
    Klassical Dream 40

    Mares Hurdle:

    Honeysuckle 4
    Benie Des Dieux 5
    Concertista 10
    Dame De Compagnie 12
    Burning Victory 20
    Elfile 25
    Indefatigable 25
    Maries Rock 25
    Colreevy 33
    Gypsy Island 33
    Minella Melody 33
    Roksana 33
    Stormy Ireland 40
    Clondaw Caitlin 50
    Dolcita 50

    NH Chase:

    Fury Road 12
    Latest Exhibition 12
    Monkfish 12
    Thyme Hill 14
    Cobblers Way 40
    Janidil 50
    Lieutenant Rocco 50
    Redford Road 50
    Sempo 50
    The Wolf 50
    Aione 66

    Ballymore:

    Appreciate It 16
    Ferny Hollow 16
    Bob Olinger 25
    Eskylane 25
    Forged In Fire 25
    Ballyadam 33
    Deploy The Getaway 33
    Farouk DAlene 33
    Fire Attack 33
    Malone Road 33
    Sir Gerhard 33
    Eric Bloodaxe 40
    Third Time Lucki 40
    Israel Champ 50

    RSA:

    Envoi Allen 7
    Monkfish 12
    Latest Exhibition 16
    Fury Road 20
    The Big Getaway 25
    Thyme Hill 25
    Column Of Fire 33
    Diol Ker 33
    Lord Royal 33
    Paisley Park 33
    Pileon 33
    Run Wild Fred 33
    The Big Breakaway 33
    Dickie Diver 40
    Glynn 40

    QM Champion Chase:

    Chacun Pour Soi 6
    Altior 8
    Defi Du Seuil 14
    A Plus Tard 20
    Allaho 20
    Politologue 20
    Put The Kettle On 20
    Fakir Doudairies 25
    Melon 25
    Min 25
    Chosen Mate 33
    Dynamite Dollars 33
    Samcro 33
    Annamix 40
    Cash Back 40

    Marsh:

    Envoi Allen 6
    Shishkin 12
    Honeysuckle 16
    The Big Getaway 16
    Easywork 20
    Monkfish 20
    Chantry House 25
    Asterion Forlonge 33
    Fiddlerontheroof 33
    Sporting John 40
    Allart 50
    Longhouse Poet 50
    Mossy Fen 50
    The Big Breakaway 50

    Ryanair:

    Min 10
    Allaho 14
    Samcro 14
    A Plus Tard 16
    Real Steel 16
    Altior 20
    Clan Des Obeaux 20
    Defi Du Seuil 20
    Melon 20
    Riders On the Storm 20
    Saint Calvados 20
    Cyrname 25
    Imperial Aura 25
    Simply The Betts 25
    Angels Breath 33

    Stayers Hurdle:

    Benie Des Dieux 8
    Envoi Allen 8
    Paisley Park 9
    Honeysuckle 10
    Thyme Hill 16
    Goshen 20
    Ronald Pump 20
    Sire Du Berlais 20
    Latest Exhibition 25
    Lisnagar Oscar 25
    McFabulous 25
    Monkfish 25
    Summerville Boy 25
    City Island 33
    Column Of Fire 33

    Gold Cup:

    Al Boum Photo 6
    Santini 8
    Champ 14
    Lostintranslation 16
    Minella Indo 16
    Topofthegame 20
    Allaho 25
    Benie Des Deaux 25
    Delta Work 25
    Samcro 25
    Easysland 33
    Put The Kettle On 33
    Simply The Betts 33
    Benie Des Dieux 40
    Clan Des Obeaux 40
    Last edited by Istabraq; 22 March 2020, 12:42 PM.

  • #2
    Yep, good idea.

    Comment


    • #3
      Istabraq , Are you going to Update these prices monthly ??.
      Or are we all going to add any changes at any time ??.
      Just asking for Clarity ...

      Comment


      • #4
        It was my intention to update regularly BC, that being monthly or after a big event, though it’s unlikely there’ll be much movement on any price for a while...

        Comment


        • #5
          O.k Great , Yes , i wouldn't be expecting too much activity for a while

          Comment


          • #6
            Good stuff.

            Comment


            • #7
              As at 10th April:

              Shishkin (Arkle) now best price 4/1

              Epatante (Champion Hurdle) 4/1

              Ballyadam (Ballymore) 20/1

              Monkfish (RSA) 10/1
              Fury Road (RSA) 16/1

              Envoi Allen (Marsh) 5/1

              A Plus Tard (Ryanair) 12/1
              Allaho (Ryanair) 14/1
              Samcro (Ryanair) 12/1

              Paisley Park (Stayers) 7/1
              Sire de Berlais (Stayers) 16/1
              McFabulous (Stayers) 20/1

              Comment


              • #8
                I thought Bright Forecast is a great price for the RSA @ 40/1

                Comment


                • #9
                  Unsurprisingly no huge movement though targets for one or two novices may be looking clearer.
                  I think the idea is to have updated odds added to all the race threads when they're up so this thread will likely disappear but until that happens we'll update every now and then.

                  Prices as at 2/6/20

                  Supreme:

                  Ferny Hollow 12
                  Appreciate It 16
                  Forged In Fire 20
                  Farouk DAlene 25
                  Flinteur Sacre 25
                  Malone Road 25
                  Bob Olinger 33
                  Deploy The Getaway 40
                  Eskylane 33
                  Gran Luna 33
                  Micro Manage 33
                  Risk Factor 40
                  Sir Gerhard 33
                  Third Time Lucki 33
                  Ballyadam 33

                  Arkle:

                  Shishkin 4
                  Envoi Allen 14
                  Abacadabras 25
                  Chantry House 20
                  Easywork 25
                  Klassical Dream 25
                  Captain Guinness 20
                  Darver Star 25
                  Pic Dorhy 33
                  Saint Roi 33
                  Asterion Forlonge 40
                  Energumene 40
                  Fiddlerontheroof 40
                  Fusil Raffles 40
                  Getaway Trump 40

                  Champion Hurdle:

                  Epatante 4/1
                  Goshen 6
                  Abacadabras 8
                  Envoi Allen 14
                  Honeysuckle 16
                  Shishkin 16
                  Benie Des Dieux 25
                  Buveur Dair 25
                  Saldier 25
                  Chantry House 33
                  Concertista 33
                  Darver Star 40
                  Elixir Dainay 33
                  Saint Roi 25
                  Sharjah 25
                  Klassical Dream 40

                  Mares Hurdle:

                  Honeysuckle 4
                  Benie Des Dieux 5
                  Lautonmie 8
                  Concertista 10
                  Dame De Compagnie 12
                  Burning Victory 20
                  Robin de Carlow 16
                  Blak Tears 20
                  Elfile 25
                  Indefatigable 25
                  Maries Rock 33
                  Colreevy 33
                  Gypsy Island 33
                  Minella Melody 33
                  Roksana 33
                  Stormy Ireland 40
                  Clondaw Caitlin 50
                  Dolcita 50

                  NH Chase:

                  Fury Road 16
                  Latest Exhibition 16
                  Monkfish 12
                  Thyme Hill 14
                  Sams Profile 20
                  Cracking Smart 20
                  Run Wild Fred 20
                  Column of Fire 25
                  Five Oclock 25
                  Diol Ker 25
                  The Big Breakaway 25
                  The Big Getaway 25
                  Eskylane 25
                  Next Destination 33
                  Aione 33

                  Ballymore:

                  Appreciate It 16
                  Ferny Hollow 14
                  Bob Olinger 25
                  Eskylane 25
                  Forged In Fire 25
                  Ballyadam 20
                  Deploy The Getaway 40
                  Farouk DAlene 33
                  Fire Attack 33
                  Malone Road 33
                  Sir Gerhard 40
                  Eric Bloodaxe 50
                  Third Time Lucki 40
                  Israel Champ 50

                  RSA:

                  Envoi Allen 7
                  Monkfish 10
                  Latest Exhibition 16
                  Fury Road 16
                  The Big Getaway 25
                  Thyme Hill 20
                  Column Of Fire 40
                  Diol Ker 20
                  Lord Royal 33
                  Paisley Park 33
                  Pileon 33
                  Run Wild Fred 33
                  The Big Breakaway 33
                  Dickie Diver 66
                  Glynn 40

                  QM Champion Chase:

                  Chacun Pour Soi 5
                  Altior 8
                  Defi Du Seuil 14
                  A Plus Tard 16
                  Allaho 20
                  Politologue 20
                  Put The Kettle On 20
                  Fakir Doudairies 25
                  Melon 25
                  Min 25
                  Chosen Mate 33
                  Dynamite Dollars 33
                  Samcro 33
                  Annamix 50
                  Cash Back 40

                  Marsh:

                  Envoi Allen 9/2
                  Shishkin 12
                  Honeysuckle 16
                  The Big Getaway 16
                  Easywork 25
                  Monkfish 20
                  Chantry House 20
                  Asterion Forlonge 33
                  Fiddlerontheroof 33
                  Sporting John 40
                  Allart 50
                  Longhouse Poet 50
                  Mossy Fen 50

                  Ryanair:

                  LostinTranslation 8
                  Min 10
                  Allaho 14
                  Samcro 12
                  A Plus Tard 10
                  Real Steel 16
                  Altior 25
                  Clan Des Obeaux 20
                  Defi Du Seuil 20
                  Melon 20
                  Riders On the Storm 25
                  Saint Calvados 20
                  Cyrname 25
                  Imperial Aura 25
                  Simply The Betts 25
                  Angels Breath 25

                  Stayers Hurdle:

                  Benie Des Dieux 8
                  Envoi Allen 12
                  Paisley Park 7
                  Honeysuckle 12
                  Thyme Hill 16
                  Goshen 20
                  Ronald Pump 20
                  Sire Du Berlais 16
                  Latest Exhibition 25
                  Lisnagar Oscar 16
                  McFabulous 20
                  Monkfish 33
                  Summerville Boy 25
                  City Island 33
                  Column Of Fire 33

                  Gold Cup:

                  Al Boum Photo 6
                  Santini 7
                  Champ 12
                  Lostintranslation 14
                  Minella Indo 14
                  Topofthegame 16
                  Allaho 25
                  Benie Des Deaux 25
                  Delta Work 25
                  Samcro 25
                  Easysland 33
                  Simply The Betts 33
                  Benie Des Dieux 25
                  Clan Des Obeaux 40

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Does anyone know the favourites for each race from last year and their prices as they were about this time last year? Or close to it. I’m intrigued to see the prices and if they compare to this years (and also how many went on to stay fav) cheers

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Dee Bee,

                      All I can find as a guide to early markets for the Cheltenham Festival 2020, a year ago, is from the Monday 18th March 2019 Racing Post, where post-Festival they all tip up an antepost bet for next seasons Festival and they also had the early Festival 2020 markets.

                      This would be pre-Aintree and pre-Punchestown, BUT as we havent had these this year, they are more relatable to this summers markets than usual.

                      First, on Monday 18th March 2020, the antepost tips from the Racing Post tipsters for Festival 2020 were:-

                      A Plus Tard
                      Espoir D'Allen
                      Frodon
                      Buveur D'Air
                      Bright Forecast
                      Klassical Dream
                      Top Of The Game
                      Al Dancer
                      Delta Work
                      Defi Du Seuil
                      Lostintranslation
                      Blue Sari

                      Results March 2020 - Nought out of 12.

                      --------------------------------------------

                      Now the early markets (best prices quoted) on Monday 18th March 2020 were:-

                      Supreme
                      Blue Sari 16/1
                      Andy Dufresne 20/1
                      Envoi Allen 20/1
                      Malone Road 20/1
                      Get In The Queue 33/1

                      Winner not quoted in the market at 33/1 or below, and none of them ran in the 2020 Supreme!

                      --------------------------

                      Ballymore
                      Envoi Allen 12/1
                      Andy Dufresne 20/1
                      Abacadabras 25/1
                      Blue Sari 25/1
                      Malone Road 25/1
                      Thyme Hill 33/1

                      Winner quoted as Fav here, but none of rest ran in the 2020 Ballymore

                      ----------------------------

                      Arkle
                      Klassical Dream 8/1
                      Laurina 8/1
                      Champ 16/1
                      Samcro 16/1
                      Melon 20/1
                      Angels Breath 33/1

                      None of them ran in the 2020 Arkle!

                      --------------------------

                      Marsh Novice Chase
                      Klassical Dream 10/1
                      Melon 12/1
                      Allaho 16/1
                      Samcro 16/1

                      The winner and second of the 2020 Marsh were quoted in the top four of the opening market.

                      ------------------------------

                      RSA Chase
                      Allaho 16/1
                      Commander of Fleet 16/1
                      Minella Indo 20/1
                      Next Destination 25/1
                      Not Many Left 25/1

                      The 2020 RSA 2nd and 3rd are quoted in the opening show in the top three.

                      ------------------------

                      Champion Hurdle
                      Espoir D'Allen 6/1
                      Buveur D'Air 8/1
                      Klassical Dream 10/1
                      Melon 25/1
                      Apples Jade 25/1
                      Laurina 25/1
                      Fakir D'Oudairies 66/1

                      None ran in the 2020 Champion Hurdle!

                      ------------------------

                      Ryanair Chase
                      Altior 10/1
                      Defi Du Seuil 10/1
                      Cyrname 12/1
                      Duc De Genievres 14/1
                      Frodon 16/1
                      Janika 16/1

                      None placed in the 2020 Ryanair.

                      ----------------

                      Stayers Hurdle
                      Paisley Park 4/1
                      Penhill 14/1
                      City Island 20/1
                      Dickie Diver 25/1
                      Faugheen 25/1

                      None placed in the 2020 Stayers Hurdle.

                      ----------------------

                      Gold Cup
                      Al Boum Photo 8/1
                      Top Of The Game 10/1
                      Santini 14/1
                      Presenting Percy 20/1
                      Altior 20/1

                      More accuracy here, with the winner and a placed horse in the first three in the market.

                      ----------------------------

                      Champion Chase
                      Altior 3/1
                      Duc De Genievres 12/1
                      Sceau Royal 16/1
                      Cilaos Emery 16/1
                      Le Richebourg 20/1
                      Min 25/1
                      A Plus Tard 33/1
                      Glen Forsa 40/1
                      Dynamite Dollars 50/1
                      Hardline 66/1

                      You have to ask - where was Politologue? - but 50/1 Dynamite Dollars actually finished 2nd in the 2020 Champion Chase

                      --------------------------------------------

                      That's the lot, hope its useful.
                      Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 6 July 2020, 04:07 PM.
                      "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Amazing work SW!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Brilliant Saxon.. many thanks for doing that it’s exactly what I was looking for.

                          I guess it points to what others have eluded to which at this (still) very early stage.. the RSA and Gold Cup gives you more to go on

                          Coincidentally (bar Monksfish) that’s where I have yet to focus my bets as I’ve attempted to get some speculative multiples going across elsewhere

                          Time to look into the above a bit more now

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by DeeBee View Post
                            Brilliant Saxon.. many thanks for doing that it’s exactly what I was looking for.

                            I guess it points to what others have eluded to which at this (still) very early stage.. the RSA and Gold Cup gives you more to go on

                            Coincidentally (bar Monksfish) that’s where I have yet to focus my bets as I’ve attempted to get some speculative multiples going across elsewhere

                            Time to look into the above a bit more now
                            I could probably look through the Racing Post archive for when the flat racing disappeared after the Breeders Cup in early November, for another list.
                            Racing Post we’re doing markets for the late season flat races, all through October, so nothing much worth posting.
                            "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Top effort Saxon digging that out, amazing to think of the horses that didn't line up for looking at the early quotes.

                              Comment

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