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Tracking 2021 Odds

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post
    I could probably look through the Racing Post archive for when the flat racing disappeared after the Breeders Cup in early November, for another list.
    Racing Post we’re doing markets for the late season flat races, all through October, so nothing much worth posting.
    If it’s easy enough to put together that would be much appreciated. It might help spot any potential patterns. I know this is a strange year and we won’t have had the races ran so the more into the better!

    Comment


    • #17
      Top work SW. A timely reminder to all of who have got a bit carried away betting on next years festival this far out!!

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by The King Pimm View Post
        Top work SW. A timely reminder to all of who have got a bit carried away betting on next years festival this far out!!
        3 winners (12/1, 16/1 & 8/1) and 5 placed horses ain't half bad from that list of 10 races is it ??

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Lobos View Post
          3 winners (12/1, 16/1 & 8/1) and 5 placed horses ain't half bad from that list of 10 races is it ??
          58 bets to cover them all though.

          Comment


          • #20
            I think a takeout from this is not to back "injured" horses until they are declared to run again.

            Another is probably to do the same for Novice Hurdlers (apart from say the top 2 or 3 in the Festival Bumper, who have Cheltenham form in the bag), wait until they are declared - including any that may be coming in from France.

            Short-priced horses aren't always the certainties they may seem to be before the season starts.

            Lastly, don't believe that your first thoughts on who will win Festival Races is gospel and true, be adaptable to additions or to change
            "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

            Comment


            • #21
              I've gone through the Racing Post archive to dig out the prices through the season, from the "Markets" page on the first Monday of each month from November to Feb inclusive.
              I will post them up now, month by month.
              "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

              Comment


              • #22
                Any inaccuracies are from the Racing Post (not me)

                Last seasons Markets as reported in the Racing Post on

                Monday 4th November 2019


                These are the markets quoted on that date.

                Supreme
                Malone Road 12/1
                Envoi Allen 14/1
                Blue Sari 16/1
                Andy Dufresne 25/1
                Get In The Queue 33/1

                ----------------------

                Ballymore
                Envoi Allen 4/1
                Thyme Hill 25/1
                Andy Dufresne 25/1
                Abadadabras 25/1
                Blue Sari 25/1
                Malone Road 33/1

                ----------------------------

                Arkle
                Laurina 9/1
                Melon 12/1
                Samcro 16/1
                Klassical Dream 20/1
                Brewinupastorm 20/1
                Angels Breath 25/1
                Champ 33/1

                ------------------

                RSA
                Champ 10/1
                Minella Indo 10/1
                Next Destination 25/1
                Allaho 25/1
                Commander of Fleet 33/1
                Not Many Left 33/1

                ---------------------------

                Champion Hurdle
                Klassical Dream 7/2
                Buveur D'Air 6/1
                Pentland Hills 10/1
                Melon 25/1
                Apples Jade 25/1
                Laurina 33/1
                Thomas Darby 33/1
                Itchy Feet 40/1
                Angels Breath 50/1
                Al Dancer 66/1

                ------------------------

                Champion Chase
                Altior 5/1
                Min 12/1
                Sceau Royal 20/1
                Duc De Genievres 20/1
                Cilaos Emery 20/1
                Le Richebourg 20/1
                A Plus Tard 25/1
                Dynamite Dollars 40/1

                I think the Racing Post have missed Chacun Pour Soi off their list, at around 6/1

                -------------------------------

                Gold Cup
                Kemboy 13/2
                Al Boum Photo 8/1
                Lostintranslation 9/1
                Santini 10/1
                Altior 20/1
                Clan Des Obeaux 20/1
                Presenting Percy 20/1
                Delta Work 20/1
                Native River 25/1

                -------The End-----------
                "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                Comment


                • #23
                  Any inaccuracies are from the Racing Post (not me)

                  Last seasons Markets as reported in the Racing Post on

                  Monday 2nd December 2019


                  These are the markets quoted on that date.

                  Supreme
                  Envoi Allen 7/2 (Checked twice, and that’s what the Racing Post says).
                  Unexcepted 12/1
                  Abacadabras 12/1
                  Blue Sari 16/1
                  Andy Dufresne 16/1
                  Fly Smart 25/1

                  ----------------------

                  Arkle
                  Laurina 5/1
                  Fakir D'Oudairies 6/1
                  Angels Breath 14/1
                  Samcro 16/1

                  ------------------

                  Champion Hurdle
                  Saldier 4/1
                  Klassical Dream 9/2
                  Pentland Hills 9/1
                  Buveur D'Air 10/1
                  Fusil Raffles 12/1
                  Envoi Allen 12/1
                  Honeysuckle 12/1

                  -----------------------

                  Mares Hurdle
                  Honeysuckle 2/1
                  Benie De Dieux 9/4
                  Laurina 7/1
                  Epatante 14/1
                  Apples Jade 16/1
                  Roksana 16/1

                  ------------------------

                  Champion Chase
                  Altior 7/2
                  Chacun Pour Soi 4/1
                  Defi Du Seuil 10/1
                  Cilaos Emery 14/1
                  Douvan 14/1
                  Le Richebourg 20/1

                  -------------------------------

                  Stayers Hurdle
                  Paisley Park 7/4
                  If The Cap Fits 9/1
                  Benie De Dieux 10/1
                  Bacardys 16/1

                  ----------------------

                  Gold Cup
                  Lostintranslation 9/2
                  Kemboy 6/1
                  Al Boum Photo 8/1
                  Santini 10/1
                  Presenting Percy 16/1


                  -------The End-----------
                  Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 7 July 2020, 07:15 PM.
                  "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Any inaccuracies are from the Racing Post

                    Last seasons Markets as reported in the Racing Post on

                    Monday 6th January 2020


                    These are the markets quoted on that date.

                    Supreme
                    Abacadabras 4/1
                    Envoi Allen 7/1
                    Fiddlerontheroof 10/1
                    Chantry House 20/1
                    Edwardstone 20/1
                    Blue Sari 25/1
                    Unexcepted 25/1
                    Front View 25/1
                    Andy Dufresne 25/1
                    Fly Smart 33/1

                    ----------------------

                    Ballymore
                    Envoi Allen 7/4
                    Easywork 12/1
                    Thyme Hill 14/1
                    The Big Breakaway 14/1
                    Fiddlerontheroof 14/1
                    Abadadabras 16/1
                    Andy Dufresne 16/1
                    Latest Exhibition 20/1
                    Blue Sari 50/1

                    ----------------------------

                    Albert Bartlett
                    Thyme Hill 6/1
                    Fury Road 12/1
                    The Big Breakaway 12/1
                    Latest Exhibition 16/1
                    Andy Dufresne 20/1
                    Midnight Run 20/1
                    Monkfish 20/1
                    Redford Road 33/1

                    ------------------------

                    Arkle
                    Notebook 9/2
                    Fakir D'Oudairies 11/2
                    Melon 14/1
                    Felix Desjy 16/1
                    Brewinupastorm 16/1
                    Samcro 20/1
                    Laurina 25/1
                    Al Dancer 25/1

                    ------------------

                    RSA
                    Champ 7/2
                    Minella Indo 8/1
                    Battleoverdoyen 9/1
                    Slate House 14/1
                    Samcro 20/1
                    Black Op 20/1
                    Allaho 20/1
                    Danny Whizzbang 33/1

                    ---------------------------

                    Marsh Novice Chase
                    Faugheen 8/1
                    Samcro 12/1
                    Black Op 14/1
                    Champ 14/1
                    Laurina 14/1
                    Fakir D'Oudairies 14/1
                    Melon 16/1
                    Mister Fisher 16/1
                    Battleoverdoyen 20/1
                    Reserve Tank 20/1
                    City Island 25/1

                    ---------------------

                    Champion Hurdle
                    Epatante 3/1
                    Saldier 7/1
                    Pentland Hills 9/1
                    Klassical Dream 10/1
                    Honeysuckle 11/1
                    Envoi Allen 16/1
                    Call Me Lord 20/1
                    Couer Sublime 25/1
                    Fusil Raffles 25/1

                    --------------------------

                    Mares Hurdle
                    Honeysuckle 15/8
                    Benie De Dieux 9/4
                    Epatante 5/1
                    Apples Jade 7/1
                    Laurina 8/1
                    Roksana 10/1
                    Stormy Ireland 16/1
                    Dame De Compagnie 20/1

                    ---------------------------

                    Champion Chase
                    Altior 7/2
                    Defi Du Seuil 7/2
                    Chacun Pour Soi 5/1
                    Cilaos Emery 9/1
                    A Plus Tard 10/1
                    Douvan 14/1
                    Waiting Patiently 16/1
                    Min 20/1
                    Le Richebourg 25/1
                    Sceau Royal 33/1

                    -------------------------------

                    Ryanair Chase
                    Defi Du Seuil 6/1
                    A Plus Tard 7/1
                    Min 7/1
                    Footpad 10/1
                    Douvan 10/1
                    Cyrname 10/1
                    Chacun Pour Soi 12/1
                    Altior 14/1
                    Frodon 14/1
                    Janika 16/1

                    ------------------------

                    Stayers Hurdle
                    Paisley Park 6/4
                    If The Cap Fits 8/1
                    Benie De Dieux 10/1
                    Minella Indo 16/1
                    City Island 16/1
                    Penhill 20/1
                    Bacardys 25/1
                    Emitom 33/1
                    Dickie Diver 50/1

                    -----------------------

                    Triumph Hurdle
                    Aspire Tower 7/1
                    Allmankind 8/1
                    Goshen 8/1
                    Micro Manage 14/1
                    Trueshan 16/1
                    Cerberus 16/1
                    Gin On Lime 25/1
                    Botox Has 28/1
                    Homer 40/1
                    A Wave Of The Sea 40/1

                    ---------------------------

                    Gold Cup
                    Al Boum Photo 5/1
                    Kemboy 13/2
                    Clan Des Obeaux 8/1
                    Lostintranslation 8/1
                    Santini 10/1
                    Delta Work 10/1
                    Presenting Percy 12/1
                    Native River 20/1
                    Cyrname 33/1
                    Altior 33/1

                    -------The End-----------
                    "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      The last monthly update on last seasons markets.

                      Last seasons Markets as reported in the Racing Post on

                      Monday 3rd February 2020


                      These are the markets quoted on that date.

                      Supreme
                      Shishkin 4/1
                      Abacadabras 6/1
                      Asterion Forlonge 6/1
                      Fiddlerontheroof 8/1
                      Chantry House 11/1
                      Captain Guinness 16/1
                      Master Debonair 16/1
                      Edwardstone 20/1
                      Easywork 25/1
                      Envoi Allen 25/1
                      Elixir D'Ainay 25/1
                      Janadil 25/1
                      Glynn 25/1
                      Stolen Silver 25/1

                      ----------------------

                      Ballymore
                      Envoi Allen 5/4
                      Thyme Hill 10/1
                      The Big Breakaway 12/1
                      Fiddlerontheroof 14/1
                      Easywork 16/1
                      Shishkin 16/1
                      The Big Getaway 16/1
                      Elixir D'Ainay 20/1
                      Chantry House 20/1
                      Harry Senior 20/1

                      ----------------------------

                      Arkle
                      Notebook 7/2
                      Fakir D'Oudairies 6/1
                      Cash Back 11/1
                      Brewinupastorm 14/1
                      Global Citizen 16/1
                      Esprit Du Large 20/1
                      Maire Banrigh 20/1
                      Mister Fisher 20/1
                      Put The Kettle On 20/1
                      Samcro 20/1

                      ------------------

                      RSA
                      Champ 7/2
                      Minella Indo 6/1
                      Allaho 10/1
                      Battleoverdoyen 14/1
                      Faugheen 16/1
                      Slate House 16/1
                      Sam Brown 16/1
                      Black Op 20/1
                      Samcro 20/1
                      Pym 25/1
                      Copperhead 33/1

                      ---------------------------

                      Marsh Novice Chase
                      Faugheen 6/1
                      Mister Fisher 10/1
                      Itchy Feet 10/1
                      Allaho 10/1
                      Fakir D'Oudairies 12/1
                      Samcro 12/1
                      Black Op 14/1

                      ---------------------

                      Champion Hurdle
                      Epatante 4/1
                      Honeysuckle 6/1
                      Pentland Hills 7/1
                      Saldier 8/1
                      Klassical Dream 10/1
                      Envoi Allen 14/1
                      Sharjah 20/1
                      Call Me Lord 25/1
                      Couer Sublime 25/1
                      Fusil Raffles 25/1
                      Not So Sleepy 25/1

                      --------------------------

                      Mares Hurdle
                      Benie De Dieux 10/11
                      Honeysuckle 5/2
                      Stormy Ireland 9/1
                      Roksana 10/1
                      Laurina 10/1
                      Apples Jade 16/1
                      Lady Buttons 16/1
                      Verdana Blue 20/1
                      Magic of Light 20/1
                      Papagana 25/1
                      Elimay 33/1
                      Elfile 33/1

                      ---------------------------

                      Champion Chase
                      Defi Du Seuil 2/1
                      Altior 7/2
                      Chacun Pour Soi 4/1
                      A Plus Tard 9/1
                      Cilaos Emery 14/1
                      Douvan 20/1
                      Cyrname 25/1
                      Min 25/1
                      Un De Sceaux 25/1
                      Sceau Royal 25/1
                      Politologue 33/1
                      Dynamite Dollars 33/1

                      -----------------------

                      Gold Cup
                      Al Boum Photo 9/2
                      Santini 5/1
                      Delta Work 6/1
                      Lostintranslation 7/1
                      Kemboy 8/1
                      Clan Des Obeaux 8/1
                      Presenting Percy 10/1
                      Native River 20/1
                      Monalee 25/1
                      Chris's Dream 40/1
                      Bristol De Mai 40/1

                      -------The End-----------
                      "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Cracking work Saxon, very illuminating and rather scary!!

                        Seems the market only started to get it approximately right around the turn of the year.

                        Tends to indicate the folly of taking skinny prices this far out based on the previous Festival.

                        Maybe we need to be looking further into the long grass for next year's gems. Maybe I should have backed Aione in the NH Hunt Chase after all!
                        Last edited by nortonscoin200; 7 July 2020, 02:54 PM.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by nortonscoin200 View Post
                          Cracking work Saxon, very illuminating and rather scary!!

                          Seems the market only started to get it approximately right around the turn of the year.

                          Tends to indicate the folly of taking skinny prices this far out based on the previous Festival.

                          Maybe we need to be looking further into the long grass for next year's gems. Maybe I should have backed Aione in the NH Hunt Chase after all!
                          Absolutely, I would never have a strong opinion for anything at Cheltenham winning this far out (it is horses racing in large groups over obstacles after all).

                          Thats why I never back short-priced horses antepost for it.

                          It doesn't stop me looking for those I perceive are "value" and backing them at long-odds - this is the part I enjoy most.

                          I know most of my winners at the Festival this year were backed from December onwards, so I havent committed a lot of bets to the next one, just yet. I usually have cashout on most of those I've backed before they make their seasonal debuts.

                          A lot of those early markets, until the Christmas races are run, are absolute carnage for the shorter priced/early quoted horses, and in some races the winner isn't even mentioned among the quoted horses.
                          Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 9 July 2020, 11:04 AM.
                          "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Thanks again Saxon.. interesting to note just how many favs obliged from first week of January/February. Same again for next year perhaps

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Great work SW!

                              The champion hurdle market is quite funny to see in November only 1 horse listed in the betting made the race.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Craigy14 View Post
                                Great work SW!

                                The champion hurdle market is quite funny to see in November only 1 horse listed in the betting made the race.
                                Its a scary thing to look back on, but useful nonetheless.
                                "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                                Comment

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