Festival Forum Yankees 2021 - March

[Joleg]

I'd like to throw Captain Guinness (Arkle) in

[mayo]

BDD for the stayers.

[DenmanSacre]

CPS - Champion Chase
BDD - stayers
Abacadabras - Champ Hurdle
Allaho - Ryanair

[Outlaw]

Bennie 3 Chelt RPRs now read 152,156,156 granted all over the intermediate trip but even allowing for the mares allowance, that would only be good enough to have won this years Stayers and Penhills year in last decade. Not sure if it's the course or if she would be better over further but her numbers at the venue don't stack up as well as we all believe her to be, and she could as easily end in the new Mares chase.

[Kevloaf]

If you think that Envoi Allen goes to the Marsh, Monkfish at 12/1 in the RSA is a good price.

Agree with this, although in the trainers quotes page, Mullins mentions stayers as well.

...tipped up by Gary Nutting on ATR in the last day or so.

I'm not sure I agree with 12/1 being a good price. Doesn't look a lot of juice in it to me?

If any of the 3 horses that finished behind him in the Albert Bartlett went Novice Chasing then he's not exactly huge value again any of them relative to their prices?
We've been told he's a chaser, so the price reflects that. Fury Road 20/1? 8 pts difference? Is Fury Road not exactly the same? A chaser? Latest Exhibition 16/1 - definitely going chasing too.

Diol Ker at 33/1?
The Big Getaway at 25/1 probably an RSA horse too? The Big Breakaway 33/1


Not sure I'd want any of these in though




Now Monkfish's SP will not be 12/1 (double figures) by any stretch if he turns up next March, but that just makes me think the price is okay now, not particularly exciting?

[Kevloaf]

I see Pic D'Orhy is available at 33/1 for the Arkle...

We know he's going novice chasing....

[Outlaw]

I see Pic D'Orhy is available at 33/1 for the Arkle...

We know he's going novice chasing....

Yeah was well touted after the betfair and even allowing for Shishkin for being well above average this lad has always been talked up as wait for chasing he will shine etc. 33/1 does look very appealing Kev.

[Middle_Of_March]

Some good discussion here lads.

Have to say I like one of Paisley or Benie for the stayers but I’d sway towards the former. Simply because I think if Benie doesn’t go to the Mares Hurdle, it’ll be because she wins the Mares Chase instead. I’d say the Stayers is a 11/4 shot for her to run in so she doesn’t scream value to win the race at this stage. And I say that as someone who backed her for the race with some free bets last season early doors.

TOTG is probably the smart-man punt in the fact that he obviously beat Delta Work and Santini who’ve both done wonders for the form since.

[Geegees]

Yeah was well touted after the betfair and even allowing for Shishkin for being well above average this lad has always been talked up as wait for chasing he will shine etc. 33/1 does look very appealing Kev.

Would say this far out with comments that have come out of the stable then more value than shiskin

[Kevloaf]

Shishkin is probably going to be a level above Pic D'orhy

but

It's March 2020, and we're playing a bet for March 2021 - so really we shouldn't have anything single figures

[Ray]

Yeah was well touted after the betfair and even allowing for Shishkin for being well above average this lad has always been talked up as wait for chasing he will shine etc. 33/1 does look very appealing Kev.

Id also like to add i read somewhere in december that nicholls has more hope for his horses next year so this vould
Be a very nice each way bet!

[Kevloaf]

Allaho for the Ryanair at 14/1?

I don't think he looked like he'd relish an extra 2 furlongs on the more stamina sapping track next year based on his RSA run.

However I do think his front running style in the Ryanair over the stiff 2m5f would be ideal.




Recapping others I've actually backed myself so far, Paisley Park at 10/1 (when the targets certain)?
Pic D'Orhy in the Arkle at 33/1?
Envoi Allen Marsh 6/1 (although I can definitely see why we'd avoid anything siongle figures now!)

[Big Chac]

Allaho for the Ryanair at 14/1?

Think he's 12/1 anyrace with hills which may be the way forward if you have just a slight double as its only a 2 point difference.

[Kevloaf]

Think he's 12/1 anyrace with hills which may be the way forward if you have just a slight double as its only a 2 point difference.

Thanks, not going to help in the monthly yankee but worth knowing.
I imagine you can boost to 13/1 (any race) which is probably worthwhile.

[Middle_Of_March]

Allaho for the Ryanair at 14/1?

I don't think he looked like he'd relish an extra 2 furlongs on the more stamina sapping track next year based on his RSA run.

However I do think his front running style in the Ryanair over the stiff 2m5f would be ideal.




Recapping others I've actually backed myself so far, Paisley Park at 10/1 (when the targets certain)?
Pic D'Orhy in the Arkle at 33/1?
Envoi Allen Marsh 6/1 (although I can definitely see why we'd avoid anything siongle figures now!)

I’m definitely with you on Paisley for this. He’s almost guaranteed to be selected for this months.

Not sure about Allaho though. He strikes me as a horse we could back in later yankees if we do wished and he’d still be a backable price as he’d most likely have been beat at some point. If he hasn’t been beaten, they’d go for the Gold Cup which, if I remember correctly, has already been touted as a target for him. He just seems the type that could end up in a Ryanair but will still be a fair price at Christmas time. So I’d personally be against him for this a year in advance.