Cheltenham Festival 2021 - Horses Targets/Trainer Quotes

[Spectre]

I completely agree with regards Defi. In fact I'd start his campaign focused on the King George and see if he can become a Gold Cup horse. Let's face it, in his novice chase season he twice out-stayed the horse that finished third in this seasons Gold Cup over two and half. One of those being at Cheltenham. Unfortunately Hobbs doesn't agree and has said he still sees him as a Champion Chaser.

Fakir will probably stay at two miles for the reasons you say. They won't be able to resist taking on PTKO again. He'd win the Ryanair though, even though it could end being a deep race. He looks as though he's more than ready to be stepped up in trip, and his breeding suggests he'll improve for it.

[Kevloaf]

As much as this is the case I can see them being split in this instance. Defi is not a 2m chaser. He won weak renewals. He shouldn't have been going down the QMCC route in the first place, IMO. Fakir could, I believe, reverse the form with PTKO, again IMO, and would obviously need to to anyway to have any chance.

How strong are you expecting the Tingle Creek et al to be?

Weak again surely, especially in the UK - the UK 2 mile novice chasers were pants last year as I was more than happy to point out and there is no reason at all Defi Du Seuil couldn't mop them up again?

Altior might still be clear of him, but that's not a given... behind that, who does Defi have to beat?


With only Altior to beat, to say he shouldn't be going down that route is bananananannanananannas. Great races in their own right and he already has a formidible festival record.



If he goes up in trip, I hope Cyrname wallops him at Ascot... which is perfectly feasible too!
He is really good though, so perhaps King George on the agenda. I know Quevega would be pleased, and through Lostintranslation he'd not even be far off a Gold Cup horse would he? (If he proves he stays)... which he inevitably will


Go for the QMCC or Gold Cup, feck the Ryanair

[Faugheen_Machine]

I've had a little tickle on DDS for the KG (28/1) and the GC (85.0). Really hope that Hobbs sees the light and targets Kempton on Boxing Day.

[Kevloaf]

I've had a little tickle on DDS for the KG (28/1) and the GC (85.0). Really hope that Hobbs sees the light and targets Kempton on Boxing Day.

"See's the light" is a bit harsh isn't it?

His season as a 2 mile chaser was pretty special bar the QMCC blip and nobody can believe that was his true running can they? His Cheltenham record is enough for me to forgive him an off day, I wouldn't rule him out of winning the QMCC, so it will be quite bold to decide he wants an extra mile...

Seeing the light makes it sound like it's absolutely blatent?

All that said, Triumph winners can end up as stayers can't that. I would have backed him to beat LIT over any distance pre last season.... but I did underrate LIT so I'd need to go back and re-assess that all.

[JackieMoon33]

No, they won't bypass every 2 mile handicap, but they may well start him high (graded event(s)), his mark will likely drop (provided a poor showing) after showing as not being good enough, then may take to a handicap or two. Of course, the chance is there to back him for the Champion Hurdle, but I don't suspect he will be good enough for that, not at this stage anyway.

They seemed to hint at 'unfinished business' over hurdles so that would lead me to believe they will aim high and think he could develop into a graded performer. It's a pretty weak division too as although Aba and Saint Rio will throw their hats into the ring, Darver Star appears to be going chasing; so only a gain of one additional, genuine contender as things stand.

I would however not be at all surprised if Allart did go over fences though. Ronnie Bartlett tends to buy horses to go chasing with and Allart is no different and looks a chaser to me. Hendo also said the same about Mister Fisher with regards to having another season over hurdles but that never panned out.

[Spectre]

"See's the light" is a bit harsh isn't it?

His season as a 2 mile chaser was pretty special bar the QMCC blip and nobody can believe that was his true running can they? His Cheltenham record is enough for me to forgive him an off day, I wouldn't rule him out of winning the QMCC, so it will be quite bold to decide he wants an extra mile...

Seeing the light makes it sound like it's absolutely blatent?

All that said, Triumph winners can end up as stayers can't that. I would have backed him to beat LIT over any distance pre last season.... but I did underrate LIT so I'd need to go back and re-assess that all.

I'm not sure in hindsight that beating an under-cooked Politologue, and twice beating an over the hill Un Des Sceaux, who was then retired, is as good as we thought.

Sure he's very good over two miles, but I think he was just as good in his novice season over two and half. Surely there is more improvement to come up in trip.

[Kevloaf]

I'm not sure in hindsight that beating an under-cooked Politologue, and twice beating an over the hill Un Des Sceaux, who was then retired, is as good as we thought.

Sure he's very good over two miles, but I think he was just as good in his novice season over two and half. Surely there is more improvement to come up in trip.

Not debating that at all, I'm just saying it's far from obvious to go up in trip. I certianly wouldn't say they were wrong to stay at 2 miles if they do.


I will be excited if he goes up in trip but in terms of general divisions it'd rip a hole in the 2 mile chase division with nothing obvious to step up.



If they go up in trip, they're going to be in VERY difficult races, whereas at 2 miles, he doesn't really need to improve to set the standard does he.

Altior odds on every race, with Politilogue chasing him home. Jesus. If they decide going up in trip is easier then they see things differently to me

If they decide to go up in trip just for the sport, great stuff, but it's no an obvious choice at all for me.

[Spectre]

I agree, and I'm pretty sure the combination of unfinished business and the likelihood of Champion Chase being potentially the easier race is why Hobbs has come out early and said he's sticking to two miles.

I just wonder how JP and Fran Berry will see it, with possibly Defi Du Seuil, Fakir D'Oudairies, and Le Richebourg to consider.

[ComplyOrDie]

Not debating that at all, I'm just saying it's far from obvious to go up in trip. I certianly wouldn't say they were wrong to stay at 2 miles if they do.


I will be excited if he goes up in trip but in terms of general divisions it'd rip a hole in the 2 mile chase division with nothing obvious to step up.



If they go up in trip, they're going to be in VERY difficult races, whereas at 2 miles, he doesn't really need to improve to set the standard does he.

Altior odds on every race, with Politilogue chasing him home. Jesus. If they decide going up in trip is easier then they see things differently to me

If they decide to go up in trip just for the sport, great stuff, but it's no an obvious choice at all for me.

Oh, I think he'll stay at 2m until the festival, but they know he stays, so really no need to try and win races at the Ryanair distance until the day, when the easier options are available, IMO. It still doesn't make him QMCC material for me though, which I made abundantly clear for a lot of last season, and still lost a few pennies on the bloody race

[Quevega]

I agree, and I'm pretty sure the combination of unfinished business and the likelihood of Champion Chase being potentially the easier race is why Hobbs has come out early and said he's sticking to two miles.

I just wonder how JP and Fran Berry will see it, with possibly Defi Du Seuil, Fakir D'Oudairies, and Le Richebourg to consider.

Pretty much on the same wavelength with you on DDS.
I hope they try a trip s the horse IMO would be better over further.

I thought Hobbs made a mistake with this horse. However, in terms of winning grade ones, and prize money the season was a massive success. Even when the champion chase looked a special race, it didn't matter as his season till then was a success. So he was right, up to a point.

Then, even that fell in his lap, but for some strange reason he never turned up (he should have beat them doing handstands)

Kev's got a point in that the Grade 1 UK 2 mile division is bobar, so they will probably mop them up again (or at least attempt too)
Hopefully Willie sends something over to race early on that's not a fucking teenager. And it'll be interesting to see where Altior goes. Probably play hide and seek.

[Kevloaf]

The Irish sending over something (Put The Kettle On) must be a likely one too, Henry De Bromhead had no problem whizzing Special Tiara over?


Hopefully the Tingle Creek has Defi Du Seuil, Altior, Put The Kettle On and a Mullins horse, perhaps Cilaos Emery?

I don't think we've got any chance of seeing Chacun Pour Soi before next years festival in the UK.



Just had to look up bobar too, horrible

[Spectre]

I think Henry will send Put The Kettle On over for the Schloer. In which case we may get an early handle on her and Defi who also is likely to turn up. It makes sense for both trainers to run and find out.

It’ll be one of those races where Our collective fingers will be hovering over both for the Champion Chase.

[Lobos]

The Irish sending over something (Put The Kettle On) must be a likely one too, Henry De Bromhead had no problem whizzing Special Tiara over?


Hopefully the Tingle Creek has Defi Du Seuil, Altior, Put The Kettle On and a Mullins horse, perhaps Cilaos Emery?

I don't think we've got any chance of seeing Chacun Pour Soi before next years festival in the UK.



Just had to look up bobar too, horrible

Agree PTKO could rock up in the Tingle. Broomhead loves that race. Huge price for it as well.

[Willdunn99]

What’s everyone’s thoughts and strategy when it comes to Honey Suckle ? I really want to get her onside for a good points win, but I’m not really sure how to play it to be honest .

The safe option would be any race Market which is 3/1 WH guess it could be boosted to 7/2. Unfortunately I lost my account there so the best I can get is 9/4 else where which is way too skinny for me, and I can’t see the value before the season has even started.

The other option is backing for both the mares hurdle and The mares Chase with the option to Cash out. You can get around 7/2 for the hurdle and 10/1 for the chase. Obviously I run the risk that I’m slow when her plans are outlined and the bookies beat me in suspending the Cash out.

Another Scenario is if she was to run else where, how likely Is it she’s thrown into the Arkle or Marsh? I have that horrible feeling what if PTKO goes for the Mares Chase and Henry wants to split them up. The owners could decide to support the mares programme by running Elfile in there themselves and HoneySuckle is run in a Novice Chase. Honey has plenty of years to run in the Mares Chase the following years when she’s not a novice. If she was mine and took to fences I wouldn’t be scared of running against Shishkin with a 7lb allowance In a small Arkle field.... if they were to race tommorow I’d personally back Honey.

At the moment I personally feel the 10/1 mares Chase with cash out option is generous, and if they announced at the start of the season she’s going chasing I’d be happy. I’m just a little reluctant to hit the button at the moment.

I know there’s some Honey Suckle fans on the forum so I’m curious how everyone else is playing it? Or are people happy to wait and take a shorter price !

[Kevloaf]

I'd be wary that the 'cash out' option isn't with 365.... the PP/BFSB cash outs are not any where near 95%.



I'm pretty confident she'll go chasing as she was already schooling pre Cheltenham this year.



My best guess is that she does support the Mares programme, due to the OWNER, and that is the only reason.

You couldn't rule out the Arkle or Marsh, although if Shishkin is as good as the market suggests, and Envoi Allen is too, competing against Salsaretta and Elimay, despite being a novice, looks easier on paper!