Cheltenham Festival 2021 - Horses Targets/Trainer Quotes

[Chris]

Can someone enlighten me if Burning Victory is rated 151 and Saint Roi is rated 149, yet Saint roi time was 4 seconds faster for the same trip but a different day and same going plus carried 6 lb more. How the hell can Saint Roi rating be 149?.

[Quevega]

Can someone enlighten me if Burning Victory is rated 151 and Saint Roi is rated 149, yet Saint roi time was 4 seconds faster for the same trip but a different day and same going plus carried 4 lb more. How the hell can Saint Roi rating be 149?.

Although I've often thought that 4yr olds would go well in the supreme (especially with the allowance).
I now think that the ratings for juveniles are pretty much inflated to take into account the allowance. Not sure this is official but just that the handicapper does it anyway.
It's almost to stop/reduce them taking handicap options early doors (outside there own age group}, and factors in that they will improve for the lack of allowance when they turn 5. I.E, they'' grow into their rating.
Obviously they don't all improve which is why many struggle in the 5 yr old season.

And there are many more rating anomoly's to get upset about than your example.

[Kevloaf]

I'm not against Saint Roi and was impressed with the Cheltenham victory.

He's only rated 149 so they should be eyeing up a crack at the Greatwood before running in graded company imo.

He won't see which way Goshen went though, come the big day.......

Yes, they may well look to win a handicap first, and he better win it and win it well.

If he gets beaten he'll be a plot for a follow up in the County at a big price though and I won't believe otherwise until after the event

[Kevloaf]

I phrased that completely wrong, I most certainly do compare novices but within the two novice races (that would have an impact on the CH), the Supreme and Ballymore, not a handicap that is run on a different course, that is 3 days later on older ground.

I have an unwritten rule and don't get me wrong it's definitely not the hard and fast way to success, but handicappers generally get left behind by myself for the championship races at the festival. As far as the novice races go I usually take out the top three (provided the top 1 or 2 have not pulled well clear) from each novice race, unless the obvious hard luck story (rarely), then these can not be discounted.

You are bang on about backing loads in the novice divisions, I have a definite scatter gun approach with regards to novices, hence the multiple selections, but the Championship races I then go back to my unwritten rule. Doing it this way I'm obviously going to miss out on some bigger prices available if a novice from outside of this field wins the following season, but I am also happy to backtrack on a horse should they prove it and prove me wrong in the build up to the festival.

Fair enough, the whole point is that I feel Saint Roi is an exception, you clearly don't. He's a big price so the odds are in your favour but time will tell.

Bringing up that he's won a handicap 3 days later on a different course is all well and good, I'm not saying that is my starting point for future festival winners, you're preaching to the converted.


I've made my case for why I like Saint Roi, so won't repeat it, but feel free to go and have a read

[Kevloaf]

Can someone enlighten me if Burning Victory is rated 151 and Saint Roi is rated 149, yet Saint roi time was 4 seconds faster for the same trip but a different day and same going plus carried 4 lb more. How the hell can Saint Roi rating be 149?.

Saint Roi was in in a handicap so much easier to create a rating around how far he beat other horses given the weight he was carrying.

The Triumph they rated a horse that didn't complete 158 and worked backwards.




What rating they end up, who knows, but I know which one I trust the most at the moment!


That being said, I don't believe they've got Saint Roi right either, I think he'll show he's a 160+ horse by the time he's finished.

[Chris]

Saint Roi was in in a handicap so much easier to create a rating around how far he beat other horses given the weight he was carrying.

The Triumph they rated a horse that didn't complete 158 and worked backwards.




What rating they end up, who knows, but I know which one I trust the most at the moment!


That being said, I don't believe they've got Saint Roi right either, I think he'll show he's a 160+ horse by the time he's finished.

Great minds think alike and fools seldom differ. I hope I belong to the first mentioned.

[ComplyOrDie]

Fair enough, the whole point is that I feel Saint Roi is an exception, you clearly don't. He's a big price so the odds are in your favour but time will tell.

Bringing up that he's won a handicap 3 days later on a different course is all well and good, I'm not saying that is my starting point for future festival winners, you're preaching to the converted.


I've made my case for why I like Saint Roi, so won't repeat it, but feel free to go and have a read

Fair points Kev, we shall leave it at that, and I'll wait for him to convert me, and I'll take a much reduced price and should have listened to you

[Kevloaf]

Fair points Kev, we shall leave it at that, and I'll wait for him to convert me, and I'll take a much reduced price and should have listened to you

Or take the 25/1 now and cash out when they get him beat on debut trying to lower his handicap mark




Low risk, high reward

[TigerRolllllll]

Re Saint Roi....

I tend the the view put forward already by Kev....and backed him with small stake at 33s with cashout.....tho i dont always use cashout to protect accounts a bit.....he is very unexposed and better to see him as a novice, who happened to run in a handicap

As someone fairly new to ante-post.....i have done 2 years now and decided in order to learn i would back a large number of horses, take losses, but learn in the process.....i have actually found this works very well and i have won a lot at both last 2 years.....easily enough to pay more all my costs attending for week, annual membership , etc....and i dont bet that big

The point i want to make is that the knowledge on this forum is the BEST available and following the majority of it, added with some of your own knowledge of Cheltenham (it is a very diff festival remember).......and you will not go far wrong

i belong to 2 racing clubs and won both of their horses to follow comps this year......and all the knowledge comes from reading these threads regularly, plus watching races

So, my advice to all is listen A LOT to the regulars on here (Kev, Scooby, Saxon, etc win every year for a reason)....back plenty (small affordable) and try to add as you can......and BE BRAVE....take the early prices

[Istabraq]

The Saint Roi debate is intriguing but I really think your punting strategy is determined by availability of cash out.
Personally I can’t have the horse for a champion hurdle but if he was to go and beat up a G1 open field then I’d happily admit I was wrong and then back him at 8/1.
Those who have cash out would probably be able to get their entire stake back if the horse finished tailed off in a handicap on his return, or at worse lose 10-20% of stake.
I didn’t follow the diaries religiously last year but so many were able to cash out bad positions betting becomes low risk, but would those backing the horse do so without the benefit of cash out ?

[TigerRolllllll]

The Saint Roi debate is intriguing but I really think your punting strategy is determined by availability of cash out.
Personally I can’t have the horse for a champion hurdle but if he was to go and beat up a G1 open field then I’d happily admit I was wrong and then back him at 8/1.
Those who have cash out would probably be able to get their entire stake back if the horse finished tailed off in a handicap on his return, or at worse lose 10-20% of stake.
I didn’t follow the diaries religiously last year but so many were able to cash out bad positions betting becomes low risk, but would those backing the horse do so without the benefit of cash out ?

I think the connections matter.....right trainer and owner for Champion Hurdle

Agree re cashout.....but i like more horses with opportunity to improve, but at a price in my book....approach that has worked so far

i put up Epatante last year on here at long price and had many doubting comments.....but improvement came ......and guess am just seeing this as one i also want in the book at decent price

Personally, think Epatante is a proper CH horse and if fit, will win again....and not much value elsewhere at moment

[Saxon Warrior]

Re Saint Roi....

I tend the the view put forward already by Kev....and backed him with small stake at 33s with cashout.....tho i dont always use cashout to protect accounts a bit.....he is very unexposed and better to see him as a novice, who happened to run in a handicap

As someone fairly new to ante-post.....i have done 2 years now and decided in order to learn i would back a large number of horses, take losses, but learn in the process.....i have actually found this works very well and i have won a lot at both last 2 years.....easily enough to pay more all my costs attending for week, annual membership , etc....and i dont bet that big

The point i want to make is that the knowledge on this forum is the BEST available and following the majority of it, added with some of your own knowledge of Cheltenham (it is a very diff festival remember).......and you will not go far wrong

i belong to 2 racing clubs and won both of their horses to follow comps this year......and all the knowledge comes from reading these threads regularly, plus watching races

So, my advice to all is listen A LOT to the regulars on here (Kev, Scooby, Saxon, etc win every year for a reason)....back plenty (small affordable) and try to add as you can......and BE BRAVE....take the early prices

Tiger,

You have an excellent price on Saint Roi, at 33/1.

I reckon he is the best double-figure priced horse in the market, and he already is up there with WPM’s shortest in the market at 25/1, alongside Sharjah and Saldier.

I would rather have Saldier with 1 Festival run, 1 Festival win, sluicing home after travelling all over the County Hurdle field,
than
Sharjah No Wins from 3 Festival runs, and
Saldier who was beaten 25L in the Triumph, and hasn’t made it to March in the last 2 years.

Saint Roi looked the part, as a horse with a lot of scope, who loved the challenge of the Cheltenham Hill, and I have him as WPM’s best chance, in today’s market.

Not fussed that he is a JP runner, the same as Epatante, as JP would rather be multi-entered than run just one, and so would both trainers.

You are right, this is the best place to be as serious racing fans (particularly Cheltenham) on the internet, and we have some quality judges of form, sporting trainers patterns of entries, recognising horses with potential, quick information on non-runners and having sound explanations to back up our views. Long may it continue.

[Marty973]

SHISHKIN

Nicky Henderson speaking in @EquineP interview says ‘SHISHKIN
‘almost certainly to go novice chasing next season. You’d hope he’d be a genuine Arkle contender’

https://twitter.com/brettwmedia/status/1263807813651963905?s=21

[ComplyOrDie]

SHISHKIN

Nicky Henderson speaking in @EquineP interview says ‘SHISHKIN
‘almost certainly to go novice chasing next season. You’d hope he’d be a genuine Arkle contender’

https://twitter.com/brettwmedia/stat...651963905?s=21

Yard must have their money down now, cue some sort of bookmaker cut, although you probably wouldn't be able to tell as Oddschecker has been blue for Shishkin for about a month now

[Istabraq]

Does anyone know what Shishkins Arkle price was immediately after the Supreme ?
I wasn’t following so the best I saw was 5/1 after the festival, I can imagine it has been the aim all along and connections were hitting it straight away.
May be worth following 2022 market moves just before 2021 festival....