Cheltenham Festival 2021 - Horses Targets/Trainer Quotes

[Chris]

Saint Roi clock was very good in the County and he was very impressive. If you look at the times in both the Supreme and Champion Hurdle there is little between them, I know its the old course V new course but to my eye Saint Rio has untapped potential. So for me Saint Roi would have run a very big race in the Supreme.

[JackieMoon33]

Saint Roi clock was very good in the County and he was very impressive. If you look at the times in both the Supreme and Champion Hurdle there is little between them, I know its the old course V new course but to my eye Saint Rio has untapped potential. So for me Saint Roi would have run a very big race in the Supreme.

Troubled the front two?

[Chris]

Most Definitely, he's only rated 4lb lower than Shishkin on RPR and he's only 5 so more improvement to come.

[billymag]

Saint Roi 151rpr Shishkin 162 rpr? Agree about the age and lots more improvement to come though.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Most Definitely, he's only rated 4lb lower than Shishkin on RPR and he's only 5 so more improvement to come.

Saint Roi's RPR is 11 below Shishkin and there is a similar gap between ORs.

He was impressive but was carrying a featherweight in the Country. It's hard for me to imagine him pushing Shishkin and Abacadabras given how far clear they pulled off some decent novices.

[Kevloaf]

Saint Roi's RPR is 11 below Shishkin and there is a similar gap between ORs.

He was impressive but was carrying a featherweight in the Country. It's hard for me to imagine him pushing Shishkin and Abacadabras given how far clear they pulled off some decent novices.

While that is fair, he was carrying a featherweight, I think "hard to imagine" is a bit of a stretch?

It isn't wild to believe the rating he has achieved is a true mark, whereas Shishkin and Abacababras ratings are inflated because it was the Supreme. That race will produce the highest 2 mile hurdle ratings time after time just because it's at Cheltenham and gets a Cheltenham Festival tax.

To elaborate, Abacadbras went up 5 lbs to 158 for a 2nd. Envoi Allen came IN to this festival rated 152. Are we confident that Envoi Allen's beating of Abacadabras over 2m was inferior to this Supreme? Granted they can both have improved, but were both horses circa 1 stone better than when they met? I don't think so.

That is just how the ratings work and they creep up, but I'd question Shishkin and Abacadabras ratings against novices than I would the County Hurdle. The latter just is more accurate. I expect Saint Roi is ahead of the mark he's been allocated now too, and I don't think the gap is as big as it looks on paper.

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm a little unsure why Saint Roi is being compared to the Supreme when it is Epatante who won the Champion Hurdle (the race some are backing SR for) that is the comparison, no? Is it because of inexperience, weighing up the pair?

Given Epatante will be hard to beat (and yes I'm aware the 6 times the price factor), SR has a difference of 12lbs in RPR's with her, not to mention giving 7lb away also. He'll have to shoulder nearly a stone more in the CH, than he did in the County. Aramon was given an RPR of 155 in the county which means they are saying 4lbs difference would see them level at the line (Aramon would still be giving SR 8lbs also), is how I take it?

I understand that improvement is a big possibility but by my own calculations it will have to be improvement of anywhere between 20-25lbs and that's discounting any further improvement from Epatante.

FWIW though I do agree regarding Goshens current price in relation to SR, as I know he is likely to be used in debate also.

[Kevloaf]

I'm a little unsure why Saint Roi is being compared to the Supreme when it is Epatante who won the Champion Hurdle (the race some are backing SR for) that is the comparison, no? Is it because of inexperience, weighing up the pair?

Given Epatante will be hard to beat (and yes I'm aware the 6 times the price factor), SR has a difference of 12lbs in RPR's with her, not to mention giving 7lb away also. He'll have to shoulder nearly a stone more in the CH, than he did in the County. Aramon was given an RPR of 155 in the county which means they are saying 4lbs difference would see them level at the line (Aramon would still be giving SR 8lbs also), is how I take it?

I understand that improvement is a big possibility but by my own calculations it will have to be improvement of anywhere between 20-25lbs and that's discounting any further improvement from Epatante.

FWIW though I do agree regarding Goshens current price in relation to SR, as I know he is likely to be used in debate also.

Saint Roi was a novice so it's hardly baffling to try and work out where he'd have been in the novice pecking order though


Epatante of course will be hard to beat, the one to beat infact! .... but I don't think Saint Roi will be a 20-25 lb inferior animal by next March, so using the ratings is dangerous as Saint Roi hasn't had anywhere near the opportunities to put in a number like that yet.






What rating was Epatante at the start of this season compared to right now?

[Chris]

The great thing about this forum is we all have an opinion and if ratings were to be believed blindly we would all be millionaires. Shishkin's rated 159 is this right? after all he beat asterion forlonge rated 155 by 13 L. so on form ratings Shishkin should be rated 168 along with Abacadabras so if we all take everything on face value I'm afraid we will all have plenty on egg on it.

[ComplyOrDie]

Saint Roi was a novice so it's hardly baffling to try and work out where he'd have been in the novice pecking order though


Epatante of course will be hard to beat, the one to beat infact! .... but I don't think Saint Roi will be a 20-25 lb inferior animal by next March, so using the ratings is dangerous as Saint Roi hasn't had anywhere near the opportunities to put in a number like that yet.






What rating was Epatante at the start of this season compared to right now?

Yeah, but he'll be going into open company, so what good is comparing novices, unless they are going novice chasing, surely they get compared to the open horse company they are likely to face. I can see trying to put him in the Supreme is a debate used to get one up but it has no relevance to running in a Champion Hurdle until the horses from the Supreme step out to open company. Obviously in Saint Roi's case he was in handicap company, but you'd be hard pushed to find a horse among the lot he beat that would go anywhere close in a Champion Hurdle, IMO. And of course, he got plenty of weight from many. For me just a plot job. Think he'll be hard to place next season. Cue him running up a sequence of wins and me looking like a tit now, wouldn't be the first time mind

I think comparing Epatante at the end of the last season has to be done with a degree of intelligence now that she has shown she was much better than the performance (and the excuses were valid) at Cheltenham the previous season that caused her to drop to 137, she was 143 prior to that run.

Whatever opinions we all have it certainly makes for an interesting season ahead, even this far out.

[ComplyOrDie]

The great thing about this forum is we all have an opinion and if ratings were to be believed blindly we would all be millionaires. Shishkin's rated 159 is this right? after all he beat asterion forlonge rated 155 by 13 L. so on form ratings Shishkin should be rated 168 along with Abacadabras so if we all take everything on face value I'm afraid we will all have plenty on egg on it.

Until they come out of novice company it will hard to determine where they all sit, the problem with novices a lot of the time is their novice ratings are generally shot to pieces when they play with the big boys, IMO.

There are exceptions to this, the ones that become the stars.

[nortonscoin200]

Only one County Hurdle winner this century has gone on to win the Champion Hurdle the following season.

That was Rooster Booster who won the County in 2002 aged 8 off 11st 1lbs (or 144) to earn a RPR of 155.

He returned a year later to win the Champion and get an RPR of 173. In 2004 he finished a 5l second to Hardy Eustace in the Champion for a rating of 166.

Most County winners return to defend their crown or move up to the Coral. The only back-to-back winner this century is Alderwood who came back to win the Grand Annual very comfortably under McCoy in 2013.

Only three others have - some rather loosely - tried the County-Champion double and they were all trained by Willie.

First came Thousand Stars who won the 2010 County off 10st 5lbs (or134, RPR 140). He then finished an 8l fourth to Hurricane Fly in the 2011 Champion Hurdle.

Next - sort of - came Wicklow Brave who won the 2015 County carrying 11st 5lbs (or 138, RPR 153).

He missed the Festival in 2016 and was then left at the start in the 2017 Champion where he finished 8th, beaten 14l by Buveur D'Air.

Perhaps of interest - regarding rating comparisons between Shishkin and Saint Roi - is that Wicklow was 6th behind Vautour in the 2014 Supreme - beaten 9l to earn a RPR of 149.

Last to give it a go - in a back-handed way - was Arctic Fire.

He was second 1/2 length behind Lac Fontana in the 2014 County as a five-year-old carrying 10st 13lbs (or 141, RPR 150). It was only his fifth run over hurdles - one more than Saint Roi.

In 2015, Arctic Fire was a 1 1/2 length second to Faugheen in the Champion Hurdle, earning a RPR of 167.

He then won the County in 2017 carrying 11st 12lbs (or 158, RPR 163).

So by my reckoning Saint Roi is a reasonable each way bet at 25-1 in a CH market which has precious little value at this stage, apart from the favourite.

Though it’s a concern Epatante and Saint Rou are both in the same ownership - will JP want to put them against each other?

[Kevloaf]

Yeah, but he'll be going into open company, so what good is comparing novices, unless they are going novice chasing, surely they get compared to the open horse company they are likely to face. I can see trying to put him in the Supreme is a debate used to get one up but it has no relevance to running in a Champion Hurdle until the horses from the Supreme step out to open company. Obviously in Saint Roi's case he was in handicap company, but you'd be hard pushed to find a horse among the lot he beat that would go anywhere close in a Champion Hurdle, IMO. And of course, he got plenty of weight from many. For me just a plot job. Think he'll be hard to place next season. Cue him running up a sequence of wins and me looking like a tit now, wouldn't be the first time mind

I think comparing Epatante at the end of the last season has to be done with a degree of intelligence now that she has shown she was much better than the performance (and the excuses were valid) at Cheltenham the previous season that caused her to drop to 137, she was 143 prior to that run.

Whatever opinions we all have it certainly makes for an interesting season ahead, even this far out.

I'm staggered you can't see the point of comparing the novices from last season.



They all have to improve into open company don't they, but year after year they do... so working out how good they were relative to each other must have some worth?


I don't know how to carry on if you don't think that's worth considering.....




Also CoD, you back loads of horses right, a lot in the novice divisions, coming out of P2Ps or out of bumpers with no idea how they'll slot in, how is this any different? If anything this is easier to do than that... it's the same principle is it not?



You have to know where you think the novices slot in anyway, what if Epatante is injured or went chasing or whatever scenario it was.... it's fudging bananas to not compare the novices and work out where you think they would have been, and where they can improve to.





I can see why people don't like Saint Roi, as I said when I made the case, he's an exception to the rule. I believe he was and is better than the rating he has now still.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'm not against Saint Roi and was impressed with the Cheltenham victory.

He's only rated 149 so they should be eyeing up a crack at the Greatwood before running in graded company imo.

He won't see which way Goshen went though, come the big day.......

[ComplyOrDie]

I'm staggered you can't see the point of comparing the novices from last season.



They all have to improve into open company don't they, but year after year they do... so working out how good they were relative to each other must have some worth?


I don't know how to carry on if you don't think that's worth considering.....




Also CoD, you back loads of horses right, a lot in the novice divisions, coming out of P2Ps or out of bumpers with no idea how they'll slot in, how is this any different? If anything this is easier to do than that... it's the same principle is it not?



You have to know where you think the novices slot in anyway, what if Epatante is injured or went chasing or whatever scenario it was.... it's fudging bananas to not compare the novices and work out where you think they would have been, and where they can improve to.





I can see why people don't like Saint Roi, as I said when I made the case, he's an exception to the rule. I believe he was and is better than the rating he has now still.

I phrased that completely wrong, I most certainly do compare novices but within the two novice races (that would have an impact on the CH), the Supreme and Ballymore, not a handicap that is run on a different course, that is 3 days later on older ground.

I have an unwritten rule and don't get me wrong it's definitely not the hard and fast way to success, but handicappers generally get left behind by myself for the championship races at the festival. As far as the novice races go I usually take out the top three (provided the top 1 or 2 have not pulled well clear) from each novice race, unless the obvious hard luck story (rarely), then these can not be discounted.

You are bang on about backing loads in the novice divisions, I have a definite scatter gun approach with regards to novices, hence the multiple selections, but the Championship races I then go back to my unwritten rule. Doing it this way I'm obviously going to miss out on some bigger prices available if a novice from outside of this field wins the following season, but I am also happy to backtrack on a horse should they prove it and prove me wrong in the build up to the festival.