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It's in the back of my mind that Nicholls doesn't mind aiming horses at other targets, so whilst Arkle and Mares Chase look solid now, it'd only take her to be beaten once for them to aim her elsewhere to gain as much prize money as possible outside of the festival?
Maybe isn't an issue for Stormy Ireland, but it's always in the back of my mind with his horses now.
She strikes me as a more flat track horse than one that relishes a hill and a battle.
I am with you on that one Kev.
2M Flat track, I wouldnt look at backing her in the Mares Chase/Hurdle over 2M4F.
Iv'e always had her as a speedster and not one to fancy lasting over 2m4 on a course like Chelt so would agree,having said that she does have a knack of outclassing a field when presented with the opportunity. The last thing we want in this new Mares Chase is one horse rated 150-155 and the rest 135-145 that is a fear for me as it basically renders it borderline G3.
There is no mares novice chase, so an allowance for novices should help bridge the gap and help the competitive nature of the race.
Even Mullins who likes to keep his novices in novice races may try them in a grade 2 festival race with an allowance. Especially if they've mopped up some experience between now and then.
I keep reading it was a weak Arkle but I have yet to see any reasons why?
Realistically we are only guessing how strong or weak the novice form is until we see it tried and tested in open company. Even at that, all of the novice 2 m G1/2 chases were run in faster times than their open equivalents on the same day over cd. I know you cant read too much into that but it certainly wouldnt be an indicator that the novice 2m form was really weak?? Maybe Im missing something
There is no mares novice chase, so an allowance for novices should help bridge the gap and help the competitive nature of the race.
Even Mullins who likes to keep his novices in novice races may try them in a grade 2 festival race with an allowance. Especially if they've mopped up some experience between now and then.
Has it been indicated anywhere that nivices may receive a novice allowance? Couldnt see this happening to be honest
Has it been indicated anywhere that nivices may receive a novice allowance? Couldnt see this happening to be honest
Maybe not a novice allowance as such, but when the mares hurdle was brought into the festival, there were allowance structures that penalised previous graded/listed wins, which effectively helped the novices.
I keep reading it was a weak Arkle but I have yet to see any reasons why?
Realistically we are only guessing how strong or weak the novice form is until we see it tried and tested in open company. Even at that, all of the novice 2 m G1/2 chases were run in faster times than their open equivalents on the same day over cd. I know you cant read too much into that but it certainly wouldnt be an indicator that the novice 2m form was really weak?? Maybe Im missing something
Theres very little depth in the open 2M division, so its easy enough to have PTKO in amongst them, as well as potential handicap improvers Greenatean and Chosen Mate.
I beleive that mares will soak into almost all open graded races and handicaps in larger numbers, as the amount of Listed and Graded chases and hurdles for Mares grows.
Come March the Mares will be placed (like last year) in races that they have a chance in, outside of mares company, as well as inside it.
From memory, outside of the two Mares races they had big performances from:-
Epatante - Grade 1 Win
Puthekettleon - Grade 1 Win
Burning Victory - Grade 1 Win
Dame De Comagnie - Coral Cup Win
Black Tears - Coral Cup 2nd
Happy Diva - Brown Plate 2nd
Queens Brook - Grade 1 3rd
Build Me Up Buttercup - County 4th
I think this will grow into more runners across the 3 non-Mares races this season, especially in Graded races where they have a massive allowance.
Its one reason, as well as ability and strong course form, that PTKO can make up into a Graded 2M Open chase mare.
its really not that long ago that the general consensus was that mares couldnt win open graded races, unless the geldings were poor - no-one would think that now.
No doubt she still may go qmcc, however she would be somewhat making up the numbers.
Depends what she does in her trials. And who she meets there. Cant see her going anywhere near to beating chacun or altior myself.
So if she goes in deep beforehand and gets a fair beating, They may have a rethink.
Sorry Scooby but I think it's a bit premature to say PTKO will be "somewhat making up the numbers" if she goes for the Champion Chase.
Maybe you will be proved right and she wont get anywhere near Chacun Pour Soi and Altior.
But as a betting proposition today I think she makes more appeal than Chacun (5-1) or Altior (8-1).
Altior has obviously been an absolute superstar but he'll be 11 next March - only two 11-year-olds have won the Champion Chase in the last 50 years.
After his no show this year there must be a chance he doesn't make the race. But even assuming he gets there it is surely reasonable to expect he will be some way past his peak.
Maybe an 11-year-old Altior will still be good enough but it's certainly not a given.
There must also be doubts about Chacun as a betting proposition for all his brilliance on the track.
He will have been at Willie's for four years in December but has only run four times so far. I'd say 5-1 is a bit tight for a horse who could again be a no show.
It's also got to be a negative that Chacun has yet to run at Cheltenham.
Most people (me included) dismissed PTKO's Arkle chances but she beat a pretty decent field fair and square - following up her course victory in November where she started the outsider of four.
She also showed admirable battling qualities which are invaluable when it comes to winning at the Festival.
PTKO will only be 7 next year so there's every chance she could improve - and with a 7lbs mares allowance she's right in the mix in my book.
Of course, you are right - a lot will depend on how she performs in her trials.
But they are not necessarily critical to her chances in the CC because we already know she acts well on the track.
Looking at the top 20 in the market for the Champion Chase I'd say there are few more solid options at this stage.
Three Arkle winners have gone on to bag the Champion Chase in the last 10 years.
The owners could have put PTKO in the Novice Handicap Chase
Instead they opted for the Arkle as an outsider.
"Making up the numbers" is what she was doing in the Arkle too and that worked out well for them.
I'm a bit confused as to why the general theme seems to be that she'll be an also ran. Nobody is arguing Altior and Chacun Pour Soi aren't better.... they are, but both have doubts. One is old, the other you could label as fragile.
Beyond them, we have Defi Du Seuil (who although I like, is getting laughed at as a genuine 2 miler on here)...... so who is left? Even if she is making up the numbers, she's not that far off being the genuine 3rd best horse in it is she?
It hardly takes a huge leap of faith for that to be the case anyway.
Unless people fancy Fox Norton rising from the ashes, or handicappers like Chosen Mate who's just not anywhere near Grade 1 class etc.
The owners could have put PTKO in the Novice Handicap Chase
Instead they opted for the Arkle as an outsider.
"Making up the numbers" is what she was doing in the Arkle too and that worked out well for them.
I'm a bit confused as to why the general theme seems to be that she'll be an also ran. Nobody is arguing Altior and Chacun Pour Soi aren't better.... they are, but both have doubts. One is old, the other you could label as fragile.
Beyond them, we have Defi Du Seuil (who although I like, is getting laughed at as a genuine 2 miler on here)...... so who is left? Even if she is making up the numbers, she's not that far off being the genuine 3rd best horse in it is she?
It hardly takes a huge leap of faith for that to be the case anyway.
Unless people fancy Fox Norton rising from the ashes, or handicappers like Chosen Mate who's just not anywhere near Grade 1 class etc.
Is there any news on the well-being of festival d’ex?
He was highly thought of at the beginning of last year After winning the goffs bumper easily but ran a few stinkers when upped in trip. He could easily get a very handy mark this year after those runs
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