Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[ComplyOrDie]

Ballyadam
Price fluctuated on Billies TWAR but as short as 20/1 for Supreme with Paddies
Best price Skybet

40’s a decent punt

All stamina isn't he (on breeding). PTP winner (Shishkin the obvious argument back). The blue seems to be for the Ballymore also. Although little difference in exchange matched money. That said, the money went down early (earlier than normal) on there I suspect for trading purposes more than anything else.

[Humble Pie]

All stamina isn't he (on breeding). PTP winner (Shishkin the obvious argument back). The blue seems to be for the Ballymore also. Although little difference in exchange matched money. That said, the money went down early (earlier than normal) on there I suspect for trading purposes more than anything else.

COD you’re answering before I reply

One to watch as season unfolds , all bets on 365

[ComplyOrDie]

COD you’re answering before I reply

One to watch as season unfolds , all bets on 365

The answers are because I can also see some level of interest for him for the Supreme, despite my own belief. Being a PTP winner, although generally suggests a trip further, does not automatically discount them running in a Supreme.

No harm being on 365 with cash out available HP

[Lobos]

The answers are because I can also see some level of interest for him for the Supreme, despite my own belief. Being a PTP winner, although generally suggests a trip further, does not automatically discount them running in a Supreme.

No harm being on 365 with cash out available HP

Clearly connections have Ferny Hollow as well, different trainer I know, but FH to me looks more the Supreme type and Gordon prefers to send his best down the Ballymore route. Could always go either way though. Skybet offer 100/1 those 2 to win any race. Had a little nibble of that !

[JackieMoon33]

Clearly connections have Ferny Hollow as well, different trainer I know, but FH to me looks more the Supreme type and Gordon prefers to send his best down the Ballymore route. Could always go either way though. Skybet offer 100/1 those 2 to win any race. Had a little nibble of that !

I would not say that Gordon "prefers to send his best down the Ballymore route". If Abacadbras had been his best novice hurdler last season and there was no Envoi Allen, would he really have sent him to the Ballymore despite being an out and out two miler?

[Craigy14]

Loved to see Gjoumi mentioned first up, her ans Hook Up the top of my list for him so far.

Was holding off mentioning her until I had money down

Agree with you on Hook Up COD, she was right on my radar as being similar to another Ricci Mullins mare (which the name has gone from me ) although not running as well as she did in the triumph.

[Craigy14]

Can remember watching that Grade 3 hurdle and keeping an eye on which willie would keep in the triumph, backed hook up and burning victory straight away at 40’s for that reason.

Doesn’t have a great record in the triumph but is the master and turned out well worth the point each (apologies Goshen backers).

[ComplyOrDie]

Agree with you on Hook Up COD, she was right on my radar as being similar to another Ricci Mullins mare (which the name has gone from me ) although not running as well as she did in the triumph.

Yeah, Hook Up went straight into my book, can't cash because with Hills, would have also backed Gjoumi but no rush and no price up yet either so will wait on her.

[Scooby91]

Agree with you on Hook Up COD, she was right on my radar as being similar to another Ricci Mullins mare (which the name has gone from me ) although not running as well as she did in the triumph.

Let's dance.

[ComplyOrDie]

Got Hook Up added to the Mares Novice, as don't think she ran her true race in the Triumph, and looks as though it may be the same route Let's Dance went, albeit she showed up much better than Hook Up did in the Triumph. 50/1 is plenty fair enough IMO.

Yeah, definitely Lets Dance. Think she (Hook Up) was one of the first ones I stuck up for the Mares Nov. 50/1 is plenty fair enough too. For all that she didn't show up as well as Lets Dance did in the Triumph.

[Lobos]

I would not say that Gordon "prefers to send his best down the Ballymore route". If Abacadbras had been his best novice hurdler last season and there was no Envoi Allen, would he really have sent him to the Ballymore despite being an out and out two miler?

Possibly not. Aba would have gone close in the Ballymore though if he did go that route as was run to suit.

[Craigy14]

Let's dance.

That’s the one, cheers Scooby!

Couldn’t remember for the life of me. Finished 4th in the triumph and some not bad performers ahead of her.

Time will tell if the juvenile form of the runners ahead of hook up are as of similar quality but will need to go some!

[Scooby91]

A few words on a couple of pricey stayers that have joined Joseph O’Brien from France.

Fils d'oudaries
Pont du gard

https://scooby91horseracingtips.wordpress.com/2020/06/04/horses-to-follow-for-the-2021-nh-season/

[ComplyOrDie]

A few words on a couple of pricey stayers that have joined Joseph O’Brien from France.

Fils d'oudaries
Pont du gard

https://scooby91horseracingtips.word...021-nh-season/

Pont du Gard of big interested going forward. Half brother to Pont Alexandre, all top RPR's from the dams progeny were between 2m 1f and 2m 4f, but some extra stamina from the dams dam. One for the Ballymore, or a handicap, like the Martin Pipe/Coral Cup before going further next season, you'd imagine.

Nice write up Scooby

[SamuelP]

Some antepost bets I have had so far:

Defi Du Seuil - Champion Chase - 14/1

It seems the current general feeling on the forum is that DDS will go up in trip this season. However, personally I can't see why he would when, with a lack of depth in the 2m division, he could potentially mop up the best 2m Chases throughout the season. Hobbs has already hinted at DDS following a similar route next season and I’d be confident DDS is above the rest of the division in the UK despite the loss in the QMCC (unless Altior can re-emerge after injury and being another year older). DDS beat Politologue twice in the season including at Cheltenham in the Schloer Chase, so I would be prepared to put a line through his run in the QMCC as he never seemed to jump that day and lacked fluency. Onto his jumping, I had doubts at the start of last season that his jumping was quick enough to enable him to be a top 2 miler but he seemed much slicker last season as he took in the Schloer/Tingle Creek/Clarence House on the way to Cheltenham. If DDS takes in similar races, imo he'd have a great chance of winning these (the main concern being Altior) and then I don't see why he would then step up and go for the Ryanair. DDS could be hitting his peak as a 8 year old next season, surely if he's winning the best 2m races he will go for the more illustrious race and would be fav/close to fav (depending on the form from Ireland). DDS went off 2/5 fav last year and I think I have read somewhere on this forum that beaten favourites tend to be good value when returning the following year. I believe the standout 14/1 for DDS to win the QMCC (PP, Betfair, Betfred) is generous (8s/9s/10s elsewhere).

Thyme Hill - Stayers Hurdle - 16/1

At this early stage I like Thyme Hill for the Stayers. He looks to have a good profile for the race as a progressive staying hurdler who settles well in his races, travels well and does his best work at the end. He has some good form in the book, most notably over 2 ½ m, so I don't think he will have trouble with the pace of a championship race over 3m. I was always of the opinion last season that he would be better over further and he put together a decent run in the Albert Bartlett. I feel this run can be upgraded, as like it has been mentioned, Thyme Hill travelled widest of all and was hampered twice on the run in. With a better ride and a clearer run I think Thyme Hill may have won the race which would have chopped a few points off his antepost price for the Stayers. Hobbs has suggested the Stayers is the target so I think with natural progression 16/1 is about as solid an antepost bet as you will get at this stage.

Monkfish - RSA - 10/1

The archetypal ‘chaser in the making’, connections and commentators have alluded to the potential Monkfish may have when finally going over a fence, so I am excited to see him develop next season. With comments of him being green, to needing to fill out his frame, to being like a big baby, I think there is scope for a
lot of development next season and beyond. So for Monkfish to get his head in front in the Albert Bartlett against quality rivals I think is a real positive and he could potentially have more improvement in him than his main rivals (of course just a simplistic opinion at the moment). In the Albert Bartlett itself Monkfish was very keen in the early stages and was also untidy at some hurdles, and also made a big error at the 8th or 9th. He was the only horse on the front end that didn't fall away, and was a target on the run in for his rivals but knuckled down excellently. Despite all this, Monkfish showed he has bags of stamina and one thing I loved about it was how after being headed he stuck his neck out and battled to the line. There's probably no greater asset than this in National Hunt Horse Racing. Much has been made about his price relative to rivals he only just beat, but I think Latest Exhibition and Fury Road travelled smoother and having had an easier run if you like should have put it up to Monkfish if the horses are of similar ability. Monkfish appears to have been a raw, unfinished article over hurdles and, having plenty of scope, looks to have potentially a lot of improvement in him when meeting fences next season. Double figure price seems reasonable at the moment.

Another horse I like for the RSA which was put up by Saxon Warrior(correct me if I'm wrong) is Easywork. I believe he may be being overlooked for not having enough 1s next to his name, but the times he lost; over 2 miles to Asterion Forlonge would have been too short a trip, and in the Ballymore if you took out Envoi Allen (the best novice hurdler of last season) then he would have won comfortably. I thought Easywork hit the line better than The Big Getaway and suggests he will be fine over further. The form of the race could be very strong and if Envoi goes for The Marsh, then it makes the RSA an easier contest should Easywork step up. However that is my main concern regarding the bet as I'm not sure they will step Easywork up as he's not short of pace. So I think the any race bet is a safer option and pretty decent at 16/1.