Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Star Of A Gunner]

Hi Waddy, Kev does the pics.....he won't be far away!

[WADDY]

Ok cheers for that Gunner, it was driving me mad!

[nortonscoin200]

A lot of the forum's early ante-post singles/doubles/trebles revolve around horses who won at this year's Festival.

These horses are favourite to win about two-thirds of the 2021 Festival races priced up on Oddschecker.

But I've been wondering how many of the 28 are likely to end up in the winners enclosure again next March.

What's your best estimate?

By my reckoning there are 11 obviously strong candidates:

Shishkin
Epatante
Honeysuckle
Envoi Allen
Champ
Easyland
Ferny Hollow
Samcro
Min
Monkfish
Al Boum Photo

And there are 15 others that may well come into the reckoning:

Put The Kettle On
The Conditional
Imperial Aura
Dame De Compagnie
Politilogue
Aramax
Sire Du Berlais
Lisnagar Oscar
Simply The Betts
Milan Native
Concertista
Burning Victory
Saint Roi
Chosen Mate
Indefatigable

That only leaves Ravenhill and It Came To Pass out in the cold.

But recent Festival history suggests that only 4 of this year's Festival winners are likely to triumph in 2021, it's also possible to argue that just 3 will prevail again.

I looked at results from 2009 to 2020 and found 44 instances of back-to-back winners over the 11-year period.

Only 33 separate horses have accomplished the feat in that time - 13 (40 per cent) of them achieved it with repeat wins in the same race.

To be honest, I'm not sure whether the "4 likely outcome" is a surprise or not.

Personally, I am much more interested in backing a horse on form, price, race distance, likely going, trainer and jockey than going big on stats. But it is nice to have the stats on your side if you come up with a horse you fancy.

And this little exercise unearthed a few pointers which may or may not provide us with a little edge.

For instance these are the races won most during the last 11 years by horses who have scored twice in a row at the Festival.

7. Pertemps
6 Foxhunters, Cross Country, Mares Hurdle
5 Arkle, RSA, Ryanair, World Hurdle
4 Gold Cup, Supreme, Ballymore

Six races scored zero: Coral Cup, Triumph, Brown Advisory, Boodles, Northern Trust, Mares Novice (they haven't all been around for the full time period)

Consecutive multiple winners like Quevega (6) and Big Bucks (4) maybe give some of the stats a false reading because of their success in one event.

Only 4 horses have won three different Festival races btb over this period, a task Envoi Allen will be seeking to emulate:

Bobs Worth: Albert Bartlett, RSA< Gold Cup
Vautour: Supreme, JLT, Ryanair
Cause of Causes: NH Chase, Kim Muir, Cross Country
Altior: Supreme, Arkle, Champion Chase

So which are the four horses most like to follow up next season and where does the value lie? I'd be interested to know your thoughts. Here's my list for what it's worth.

AL BOUM PHOTO: I reckon the fact that about 40 per cent of back-to-back winners win the same race again. Current odds of 6-1 are decent in my book.

MONKFISH: I thought he was one of the most impressive winner of the Festival. Surely he will go for the RSA which features in fifth place on the most won races by double winners. 3 AB winners have doubled up in the last 11 years. Bet365's 10-1 for the RSA is value in my book.

ENVOI ALLEN: Love him to bits. The Neptune figures on 4 and the Marsh on 3 and that's where I see him running - 9-2 best price.

EASYLAND: The stats show the X Country is the second easiest race in which to double up. I hate taking 2-1 but I'd love to have Easyland onside.

[Istabraq]

Good analysis NC.

So many horses do not make the following year for one reason or another but whilst the list you provide highlights the difficulty horses have in winning back to back races I'd still use course form over pretty much any other line of form (where possible), others of course apply different strategies but knowing a horse can cope with the undulations and hill are always at the forefront of my mind.

Of the race analysis obviously Triumph, Boodles and mares novice can't be won by the same horse consecutively, or are you saying the winners of those races haven't gone on to win any race the following year ?

Handicaps are so hard to win back to back, Sire de Berlais was successful this year but I can only think of Buena Vista to do the same, I'm sure there are others but none come to my mind right now.
By the very nature of handicapping any horse that wins one had the wrong rating and will get a considerable hike as a result, and as hard as so many seem to try it is not easy getting that mark back down to a winnable one.

Good work though NC, and plenty of food for thought...

[nortonscoin200]

Good analysis NC.

So many horses do not make the following year for one reason or another but whilst the list you provide highlights the difficulty horses have in winning back to back races I'd still use course form over pretty much any other line of form (where possible), others of course apply different strategies but knowing a horse can cope with the undulations and hill are always at the forefront of my mind.

Of the race analysis obviously Triumph, Boodles and mares novice can't be won by the same horse consecutively, or are you saying the winners of those races haven't gone on to win any race the following year ?

Handicaps are so hard to win back to back, Sire de Berlais was successful this year but I can only think of Buena Vista to do the same, I'm sure there are others but none come to my mind right now.
By the very nature of handicapping any horse that wins one had the wrong rating and will get a considerable hike as a result, and as hard as so many seem to try it is not easy getting that mark back down to a winnable one.

Good work though NC, and plenty of food for thought...

Totally agree on course form. Cheltenham is such an unusual course in terms of the undulations and the uphill finish I agree it pays to follow horses who've been there and done it before.

On the analysis, yes in the last 11 years horses in those zero races haven't gone on to win anything else.

You're right, it is difficult for handicappers to follow up but the Pertemps definitely bucks that trend and it's happened in the Ultima (3).
Other notable exceptions are:

Alderwood: County, Grand Annual.
Holywell: Pertemps, Ultima
Un Temps Pour Tout: Ultima x 2

Here are the stats for the number of back-to-back winners at each Festival

2010 4
2011 5
2012 4
2013. 7
2014 3
2015 3
2016 4
2017 4
2018 6
2019 2
2020. 3


Horse by horse breakdown

2010 Imperial Commander: Ryanair, Gold Cup
Quevega: Mares Hurdle x 2
Weapons Amnesty: Albert B, RSA
Big Bucks: World Hurdle x 2

2011. Sizing Europe: Arkle, Champion Chase
Quevega: Mares Hurdle x 2
Alberta's Run: Ryanair x 2
Big Bucks: World Hurdle x 2
Buena Vista: Pertemps x 2

2012. Quevega: Mares Hurdle x 2
Big Bucks: World Hurdle x 2
Bobs Worth: AB, RSA
Sir Des Champs: MP Hurdle, Jewson

2013. Sprinter Sacre: Arkle, Champion Chase
Quevega: Mares Hurdle x 2
Simonsig: Neptune, Arkle
Bobs Worth: RSA, Gold Cup
Champagne Fever: : Bumper, Supreme
Alderwood: County, Grand Ann
Salsify: Foxhunters x 2

2014: Quevega: Mares Hurdle x 2
Lord Windermere: RSA, Gold Cup
Holywell: Pertemps, Ultima

2015: Vautour: Supreme, JLT
Faugheen: Neptune, Champion Hurdle
Don Poli: Martin Pipe, RSA

2016 Douvan: Supreme, Arkle
Cause of Causes: NH Chase, Kim Muir
Vautour: JLT, Ryanair
On The Fringe: Foxhunters x 2

2017 Altior: Supreme, Arkle
Un Temps Pour Tout: Ultima x 2
Yorkhill: Neptune, JLT
Cause of Causes: Kim Muir, X Country

2018. Altior: Champion Chase x 2
Buveur D'Air: Champion Hurdle x 2
Tiger Roll: NH Chase, X Country
Presenting Percy: Pertemps, RSA
Penhill: AB, World Hurdle
Pacha Du polder: Foxhunters x 2

2019. Altior: Champion Chase x 2
Tiger Roll: X Country x 2

2020: Envoi Allen: Bumper, Ballymore
Sire Du Berlais: Pertemps x 2
Al Boum Photo: Gold Cup x 2


I haven't counted but there seems to be an awful lot of Irish trained horses doubling up as opposed to the home crew.

[Craigy14]

You forgot altior as one of the 3 in a row festival winners NC

[Istabraq]

Of course, Un Temps Pour Tout, how did I forget.
So many novices win chases these days I’d expect the number of hurdle winners doubling up in chases to increase, certainly an angle to consider though with tighter chase ratings (with hurdle marks) it may pay to look towards losers that have run well....

[7barrows]

You forgot altior as one of the 3 in a row festival winners NC

I think tiger roll too. But yes I think I remember hearing that 11 winners from the 28 races over the four days this year had all won at Cheltenham before.

I can see Honey suckle , epatante and easy land going b2b next year.

[nortonscoin200]

I only listed the 3 who won 3 different races in a row.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Ok cheers for that Gunner, it was driving me mad!

Welcome Waddy - not surprised that you've decided to look at other forums, Betfair is indeed a horrible forum now, spoilt by a handful of abusive posters.

[Istabraq]

Afternoon all,
Brand new to Fatjockey so just learning how to use the site.
Just wanted to say how much I have enjoyed this Cheltenham thread and cant believe we are on page 107 and were still in May.
I did read Betfair Community but the level of debate has become almost unreadable, its nasty and abusive.
This is a refreshing change.
Now how the heck do I attach a picture to my profile? I cannot for the life of me figure it out.....

Welcome Waddy.
When Kev wakes up he’ll send you the link for pictures...

[WADDY]

Cheers. Yes it's pretty bad on there now. I've reported a couple of them on there for abusive posts and nothing happens to stop it.

[Craigy14]

I only listed the 3 who won 3 different races in a row.

Supreme, Arkle, Champion Chase for Altior.

[nortonscoin200]

Supreme, Arkle, Champion Chase for Altior.

Apologies Craigy, I’ll put it right. What’s your top 4. Did mine really quickly and reckon maybe Lisnagar Oscar should be in there at current odds, we know his target and it’s a race where btb winners are not a big surprise.

[7barrows]

Apologies Craigy, I’ll put it right. What’s your top 4. Did mine really quickly and reckon maybe Lisnagar Oscar should be in there at current odds, we know his target and it’s a race where btb winners are not a big surprise.

Epatante and Easy land is the obvious with set tagrets. Honey suckle too I think shell stay over hurdles. could be a yanki forming here!