Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Outlaw]

I'm in the midst of posting a thread regarding Antepost strategies, iv'e been meaning to throw it up for folk to discuss/share so should help answer a few queries will get it posted by tonight.

[Kevloaf]

How many points is a sensible staking at this stage of ante post....I am trying to work out the general view on getting a good early ante post position and getting gun ho and doing too many early bets.. for those that been doing this year in year out what is an average point position to be in at now... and that has paid off from using the previous years festival form. Would people mind sharing their current position and ante post success from betting this early,

say I am working with a 100 point bank for the festival, what do you justify as 'sensible' points already...

p.s I am not betting on any novice hurdle races yet..Just acquiring a shortlist.

If I was limited to 100 points I'm confident I wouldn't have had a bet so far.

When I started 10 years ago I was the same as you in theory. I had 'x pts per race' - that grew year on year but then I realised I was spending as much on races like the Foxhunters as I was the Gold Cup and thats when my approach changed and I started taking things a bit more seriously.

It's relative though of course, up to a certain extent you can afford to lose pts because it's not a significant amount... it does switch though.

For a bit of context, my first festival that I recorded (2011) I had 50.5 pts in total staked....
(2019) my total stake to the equivilant was 2209 pts

[Istabraq]

You appear to love an early bet, do they tend to be working for you this early in years gone by ? Theres a lot of bets I like after reviewing this year festival and personally I feel like we've already seen lots of next years winners at cheltenham 2020 - I just wondered if this is known not be as lucrative as it might be appearing to me currently...

For me the lucrative returns come from multi’s and the better ones are those placed nearer the time, usually with NRNB, as many of the AP multi’s will have NRs.
To make decent money on AP singles you have to take a strong view I think and this year more than any other that has to be harder.

Over the coming years you’ll probably try all strategies and when you find the one that works best for you stick with it.
There’s no set approach, just trial and error and personal preference.

Good luck...

[YoungHustler]

How many points is a sensible staking at this stage of ante post....I am trying to work out the general view on getting a good early ante post position and getting gun ho and doing too many early bets.. for those that been doing this year in year out what is an average point position to be in at now... and that has paid off from using the previous years festival form. Would people mind sharing their current position and ante post success from betting this early,

say I am working with a 100 point bank for the festival, what do you justify as 'sensible' points already...

p.s I am not betting on any novice hurdle races yet..Just acquiring a shortlist.

I think it really depends on your finances and how comfortable you are with the amount you have staked AP. Will it be on your mind everyday how much you already have on, how would it affect you and your wallet if none of your bets made it to post or can you just forget about them until next March(but cash out if required)?
This will only be my second year of properly betting AP and I made up my mind last year that I wanted to be involved earlier and heavier this year. My total stakes AP last year were 13pts with my first bet in Jan. So far, I've already staked 15pts. My bank is 100pts for the whole year. I've always been a casual punter thinking that I won more than I lost and so I started recording all my bets 3 years ago and I've proved myself right as I've been profitable each year. I do sometimes can't believe that I've already staked 15pts but when I look at my bets, I'm happy with them. I don't think I'll be adding much more until the new season starts in earnest but I do also bet on the flat so my bank should be fine as I expect to make money throughout the season. Over the last 3 years, the most I was down at any time was about 16pts.

[Quevega]

I think it really depends on your finances and how comfortable you are with the amount you have staked AP. Will it be on your mind everyday how much you already have on, how would it affect you and your wallet if none of your bets made it to post or can you just forget about them until next March(but cash out if required)?
This will only be my second year of properly betting AP and I made up my mind last year that I wanted to be involved earlier and heavier this year. My total stakes AP last year were 13pts with my first bet in Jan. So far, I've already staked 15pts. My bank is 100pts for the whole year. I've always been a casual punter thinking that I won more than I lost and so I started recording all my bets 3 years ago and I've proved myself right as I've been profitable each year. I do sometimes can't believe that I've already staked 15pts but when I look at my bets, I'm happy with them. I don't think I'll be adding much more until the new season starts in earnest but I do also bet on the flat so my bank should be fine as I expect to make money throughout the season. Over the last 3 years, the most I was down at any time was about 16pts.

15% of your Bank already staked seems High Risk to me. On horses you're hoping will run in March of 2021.
15% would be risky if this were not antepost and just bets for a Saturday. With guaranteed runners.
Unless you are ratcheting or altering your points stakes as you go ?

Am I reading it correctly that you've only ever gone down to 84pts Bank in the last 3 years also ?
Must have had A Good start ?

[Quevega]

https://thebettingedge.co.uk/percent-of-betting-bank/

Explanation of ratcheting for anyone who's not aware.
Can be riskier but is of benefit for confident/winning/disciplined punters.

Personally had decent runs with the first two, but the discipline is a killer for moi.

[YoungHustler]

15% of your Bank already staked seems High Risk to me. On horses you're hoping will run in March of 2021.
15% would be risky if this were not antepost and just bets for a Saturday. With guaranteed runners.
Unless you are ratcheting or altering your points stakes as you go ?

15% of your bank on AP bets 11 months out does sound high and ridiculous and I would not encourage it. However, I think the main thing for me is that I am confident in my ability to be profitable most weeks and that I am comfortable with the worst case situation(if it was to happen) of having none of those 15pts make it to next year's festival. Obviously I don't want that worst case to ever happen but I'm comfortable with the risk to get the reward of potentially being on at a bigger price. This is only my second season of proper AP betting so it could be a disaster which could lead to a much more reserved AP strategy the year after but it's fun and it's my hobby. My staking is very consistent at 1pt per bet and 2pts for a more confident bet.

[Quevega]

15% of your bank on AP bets 11 months out does sound high and ridiculous and I would not encourage it. However, I think the main thing for me is that I am confident in my ability to be profitable most weeks and that I am comfortable with the worst case situation(if it was to happen) of having none of those 15pts make it to next year's festival. Obviously I don't want that worst case to ever happen but I'm comfortable with the risk to get the reward of potentially being on at a bigger price. This is only my second season of proper AP betting so it could be a disaster which could lead to a much more reserved AP strategy the year after but it's fun and it's my hobby. My staking is very consistent at 1pt per bet and 2pts for a more confident bet.

It's important that you recognise your own risk taking

I too bet as a hobby, although one that I spend around 5-6 hours a day on.
My Bank in recent times has been in the region of 1000 points.
As a rough guide I'd stake around 5% of this on a decent Saturday's racing. And around 15% over a weeks racing.

But last year I'd probably only lost around 4% of my Bank in antepost losing/non runner bets.
But I had to work hard with cash outs and small/minimal exchange trades to get to that position.
My typical antepost bet was single wins of 1pt only (0.1% of my Bank)

I personally favour upping my stakes when the risks are reduced and more evidence is available to me, so NRNB and after declaration bets will have much bigger stakes. This seems much more logical for someone who is cautious but lacks discipline, and likes to have lots of bets on horses.

My antepost bets are largely small and designed to place me in position to make additional bets alongside any that actually stay the course.

There are many ways to win and lose at this game though,
But my strategy is based around not losing my kitty, and for someone who likes to bet a lot and lacks the discipline to bet less.
2pt bet would be a normal stake for me and occasionally will go 10pts plus when it seems right to do so.

On a Saturday with a few cards to go at I'd sometimes stake over 50pts but have in the region of 20-25 bets.
This is not good betting for most people but suits my Funding situation and lifestyle, the Bank I have and the spread of risk helps keep losses down, and any winnings gradual - when it's going reasonably well.

[Quevega]

Just seen Ista's thread he's just put up.
I'll move most of this over to that.

[EnvoyAllen]

I’ve taken, even 11 months out, trying to deduce as much as is possible with instinct/trainer & jockey quotes/value for the selection ante post, the view that Shishkin to go to and win the Arkle and Envoi Allen to go to and win the Marsh is the only bets I’ll be looking to place. I’ve placed a considerable three figure bet on the double so far at odds of 26.5 / 1.

I understand fully the inherent risks involved at such an early stage. Two things stand out for me when I considered my financial investiture on these two.

Firstly, they are likely to shorten throughout the Summer as people gradually nibble at them as the horses graze.

Secondly, (and the hope your instinct, interpretation and tiny bit of luck all need to hand in hand....), there’s a reasonable chance, with all the information we as punters currently have on their intended targets and past performances, that both these horses might well end up odds on come the day. It’s quite the possibility. And so I’m fully prepared, risk abound, to go for it and say to myself ‘“If Shishkin and Envoi Allen were running tomorrow, would they win their races, if their careers progressed on the level they’ve so far shown?”

And you’d be hard pushed to find a punter who would suggest they know a horse, and a novice at that, who could beat them.

It’s only my opinion, and it’s why we bet and take our chance. And it’s why I’ve invested a very considerable sum to find out in 11 months time if my hunch proves a valid one.

At the very least, I believe (if both horses novice chasing careers begin well) I might have a half decent cash out on the eve of Cheltenham.

But my thought process will be completely different from the next man or woman. The Shishkin @ Arkle /Envoi Allen @ Marsh double for me, is where I’m investing.

[Liverpoolchamp]

I’ve taken, even 11 months out, trying to deduce as much as is possible with instinct/trainer & jockey quotes/value for the selection ante post, the view that Shishkin to go to and win the Arkle and Envoi Allen to go to and win the Marsh is the only bets I’ll be looking to place. I’ve placed a considerable three figure bet on the double so far at odds of 26.5 / 1.

I understand fully the inherent risks involved at such an early stage. Two things stand out for me when I considered my financial investiture on these two.

Firstly, they are likely to shorten throughout the Summer as people gradually nibble at them as the horses graze.

Secondly, (and the hope your instinct, interpretation and tiny bit of luck all need to hand in hand....), there’s a reasonable chance, with all the information we as punters currently have on their intended targets and past performances, that both these horses might well end up odds on come the day. It’s quite the possibility. And so I’m fully prepared, risk abound, to go for it and say to myself ‘“If Shishkin and Envoi Allen were running tomorrow, would they win their races, if their careers progressed on the level they’ve so far shown?”

And you’d be hard pushed to find a punter who would suggest they know a horse, and a novice at that, who could beat them.

It’s only my opinion, and it’s why we bet and take our chance. And it’s why I’ve invested a very considerable sum to find out in 11 months time if my hunch proves a valid one.

At the very least, I believe (if both horses novice chasing careers begin well) I might have a half decent cash out on the eve of Cheltenham.

But my thought process will be completely different from the next man or woman. The Shishkin @ Arkle /Envoi Allen @ Marsh double for me, is where I’m investing.

Like your way of thinking on this as I’ve started chipping away at the same double only I’ve got envoi any race just in case he goes rsa,I shit out I no haha! Let’s hope both make it there on the day and where screaming both home!

[The King Pimm]

Does anyone know if Unibet offer cash out? If so is it consistent like Bet 365 & PP? I don’t have an account with them at the moment but they seem to be offering the best prices on many AP markets

[The King Pimm]

Another query sorry...
Does anyone know anything about the expected distance of the proposed Mares Chase? Many of the mares in the market are yet to jump a fence in a race but Marie Banrigh is currently 50/1? She fell in the Arkle but did very well before then for shrewd connections?? Surely 50/1 is a huge price for a horse who has won a chase race already

[Kautostar]

Not on ante post racing
And
Injured are the 2 answers to your q’s

[The King Pimm]

Not on ante post racing
And
Injured are the 2 answers to your q’s

Aah right, that would make sense given the price. I’m guessing it was the result of her fall. Any idea how bad the injury was to Marie Banrigh?