Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[archie]

Punchestown should have started tomorrow. At this time last year, the equivalent thread had reached post #383. If more than twice the posts indicates more than twice the bets, I'd be concerned that a good few bets are being done out of boredom.

[The King Pimm]

Hills have added Brewinupastorm TWAR at 25's (which can be boosted). He fell too early in the Arkle for us to know how good he is but it wouldn't surprise me if he does prove to be a CC or Ryanair horse.

There is a chance they will start him off in a small intermediate chase somewhere but I would have thought something like the Haldon Gold Cup or what was the Paddy GC would be a good early season target. If he does progress and take in a race of that nature 25's would be a very good price given we don't really know at this stage if he will be campaigned as a 2 miler or 2 mile 4 horse.
If his level of form doesn't improve / stays constant with what he achieved last season will go down the handicap route in which case the grand annual or plate would come into play and if chasing doesn't work out there is enough in his hurdles form to think he could be a county hurdle or coral cup horse.

Worth considering. I haven't yet pulled the trigger as wanted to see if anybody heard anything on his well being since his arkle fall?

I’m not sure how it’s viewed by the more experienced horse racing punters and pundits but BUAS won the Arkle without a jockey on his back as the stray horse kept running on so how much difference the jockey would have made I’m not sure? He had a poor prep and I think he lacked chasing experience going into the Arkle. The 25’s for TWAR does interest me as I think he’s definitely capable of better if he can stay on his feet

[The King Pimm]

Punchestown should have started tomorrow. At this time last year, the equivalent thread had reached post #383. If more than twice the posts indicates more than twice the bets, I'd be concerned that a good few bets are being done out of boredom.

I had planned not to have any ante post bets for next years Festival until at least nexts years season had started and I’m already up to 36 AP bets and boredom has been a big factor for me.

[Istabraq]

Hills have added Brewinupastorm TWAR at 25's (which can be boosted). He fell too early in the Arkle for us to know how good he is but it wouldn't surprise me if he does prove to be a CC or Ryanair horse.

There is a chance they will start him off in a small intermediate chase somewhere but I would have thought something like the Haldon Gold Cup or what was the Paddy GC would be a good early season target. If he does progress and take in a race of that nature 25's would be a very good price given we don't really know at this stage if he will be campaigned as a 2 miler or 2 mile 4 horse.
If his level of form doesn't improve / stays constant with what he achieved last season will go down the handicap route in which case the grand annual or plate would come into play and if chasing doesn't work out there is enough in his hurdles form to think he could be a county hurdle or coral cup horse.

Worth considering. I haven't yet pulled the trigger as wanted to see if anybody heard anything on his well being since his arkle fall?

For me he’s probably just short of G1 and was never the most fluent over timber so I wouldn’t be convinced chasing is his game.
Without wishing to offend/upset our Irish friends I get the feeling that if he was trained over the water his sights may well be lower and he’d be trained specially with a handicap in mind such as a Browns Advisory/Grand Annual....

[Istabraq]

I'd be concerned that a good few bets are being done out of boredom.

Very fair point that archie, though the counter argument is that in the absence of Aintree, Punch and Sandown form it’s unlikely anyone is having many serious singles.
I know I’m ahead in terms of number of bets but I’m also considerably down on total outlay compared to other/average years....

[The King Pimm]

For me he’s probably just short of G1 and was never the most fluent over timber so I wouldn’t be convinced chasing is his game.
Without wishing to offend/upset our Irish friends I get the feeling that if he was trained over the water his sights may well be lower and he’d be trained specially with a handicap in mind such as a Browns Advisory/Grand Annual....

I don’t think BUAS is exposed yet and still has the potential. Olly Murphy tried to justify his race course absence by claiming he goes better fresh but he missed valuable racing opportunities this season as a novice chaser. I think he can improve and if not he could still compete at the highest level over hurdles if his novice year was anything to go by.

[Istabraq]

TKP - it’s the underexposed horses who are better handicapped and invariably mop up the festival handicaps...

[The King Pimm]

TKP - it’s the underexposed horses who are better handicapped and invariably mop up the festival handicaps...

Yeah I get your point. My point is that if BUAS starts well next season and gets a few races under his belt I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes for the Champion Chase or Ryanair, I think he’s talented enough, what he lacks is racing experience.

[archie]

Very fair point that archie, though the counter argument is that in the absence of Aintree, Punch and Sandown form it’s unlikely anyone is having many serious singles.
I know I’m ahead in terms of number of bets but I’m also considerably down on total outlay compared to other/average years....

Most on here are old enough to look after themselves but it should be remembered that the next NH season will be revamped and will probably have some valuable races earlier than usual. Most of the spring Festival horses were roughed off a while ago and will be ready to go earlier if the incentive is there and the ground is right. The traditional route to Cheltenham may go by the board.

By and large I wouldn't touch a novice chaser until it jumped a fence in public but this might happen earlier this coming season. Just another element of the 'fudge factor'.

[Priceiskey]

Hills have added Brewinupastorm TWAR at 25's (which can be boosted). He fell too early in the Arkle for us to know how good he is but it wouldn't surprise me if he does prove to be a CC or Ryanair horse.

There is a chance they will start him off in a small intermediate chase somewhere but I would have thought something like the Haldon Gold Cup or what was the Paddy GC would be a good early season target. If he does progress and take in a race of that nature 25's would be a very good price given we don't really know at this stage if he will be campaigned as a 2 miler or 2 mile 4 horse.
If his level of form doesn't improve / stays constant with what he achieved last season will go down the handicap route in which case the grand annual or plate would come into play and if chasing doesn't work out there is enough in his hurdles form to think he could be a county hurdle or coral cup horse.

Worth considering. I haven't yet pulled the trigger as wanted to see if anybody heard anything on his well being since his arkle fall?

Olly Murphy quoted Brewinupastorm will start in the Haldon Gold cup with the idea of stepping him up in trip after that.

[Hardy Eustace]

Olly Murphy quoted Brewinupastorm will start in the Haldon Gold cup with the idea of stepping him up in trip after that.

Thanks for this. He is unexposed and could prove anything so worth chancing at 25 TWAR in my opinion, will add him.

[Craigy14]

I can’t say brewin jumps well enough imo as a chaser, certainly in the Arkle was poor and obviously not quick enough either, possibly because he couldn’t jump at 2m pace.

Prefer Itchy Feet over him but ultimately he fell as well but could definitely see him continuing in grade 1 company.

[Hardy Eustace]

I can’t say brewin jumps well enough imo as a chaser, certainly in the Arkle was poor and obviously not quick enough either, possibly because he couldn’t jump at 2m pace.

Prefer Itchy Feet over him but ultimately he fell as well but could definitely see him continuing in grade 1 company.

Both have very similar profiles and I think both are horses to keep on the right side of next year. It’s entirely possible with a bit more practise brewings jumping improves and I agree itchy feet shouldn’t be out of his depth in grade 1 chases.

[Eggs]

Hills have added Brewinupastorm TWAR at 25's (which can be boosted). He fell too early in the Arkle for us to know how good he is but it wouldn't surprise me if he does prove to be a CC or Ryanair horse.

There is a chance they will start him off in a small intermediate chase somewhere but I would have thought something like the Haldon Gold Cup or what was the Paddy GC would be a good early season target. If he does progress and take in a race of that nature 25's would be a very good price given we don't really know at this stage if he will be campaigned as a 2 miler or 2 mile 4 horse.
If his level of form doesn't improve / stays constant with what he achieved last season will go down the handicap route in which case the grand annual or plate would come into play and if chasing doesn't work out there is enough in his hurdles form to think he could be a county hurdle or coral cup horse.

Worth considering. I haven't yet pulled the trigger as wanted to see if anybody heard anything on his well being since his arkle fall?

...I think these TWAR prices are a judgement call based on the difference in the specific race market. Brewinupastorm is a general 33-1 for the Ryanair so I’d say 27-1 with boost is reasonable.

Somebody mentioned My Whirlwind @ 20-1 TWAR, which is decent given it’s only 14-1 for the Mares Novice. Diol Ker on the other hand looked lousy at 14-1 TWAR compared to 44-1 with Hills for the RSA, but it’s now a best priced 20-1 and the AR option becomes more appealing.

[Craigy14]

Both have very similar profiles and I think both are horses to keep on the right side of next year. It’s entirely possible with a bit more practise brewings jumping improves and I agree itchy feet shouldn’t be out of his depth in grade 1 chases.

Yeah agree with that, I think Ista could be right though, Brewin one I’ll be keeping an eye on for the brown ad or the Tuesday novice chase as at least one will survives. Just don’t think he’s a quick enough jumper for 2 miles and not got the class imo to challenge in a Ryanair.