Tweet
Originally posted by thorne365
View Post
-
That was my first thought Thorne. I'd have guessed that most Supreme winners would tend to go for the CH over that period, but that backs it up. -
Re Shishkin for the Arkle, its worth re-reading the post race comments from Nicky Henderson as I think these do show the high regard he has for Shishkin. Personally I have backed Shishkin ANY race at 5.4 -1 and in quite a few doubles.
What Nicky said isn't evidence but it's fairly compelling opinion at least.
Nicky Henderson is considering treading the same path he did with Altior following his victory in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle — by sending this year’s winner of the race, Shishkin, over fences next season.
It was a move which worked perfectly with Altior, who won the Cheltenham Festival opener in 2016 and then famously extended his unbeaten sequence over jumps by 14 further races — including the Arkle Challenge Trophy and two successive Queen Mother Champion Chases.
Although a final decision has yet to be made on Shishkin’s next move, he is already as short as 4/1 for the 2021 Arkle and Henderson admits he is ‘tempted’ by a switch to fences.
Since falling on his debut over hurdles at Newbury in December, the talented six-year-old — who runs in the colours of Joe Donnelly, also owner of dual Gold Cup hero Al Boum Photo — has improved with each run, culminating in a head victory from Abacadabras at the Festival.
Henderson said: ‘Joe is a great man and he leaves it entirely to us to get on with it and make
‘He is a very quiet man and just says “do whatever you think is right”.Comment
-
Whichever way you look at it only 2 of the last 43 Supreme winners have won the following season’s Arkle. I haven’t done the leg-work to find out how many have tried/been sidelined by injury etc. But that stat and the way Shishkin struggled to go the pace for significant periods of the Supreme would put me off taking a single figure price for the Arkle. I’m not rushing to back ABP at 6-1 for the Gold Cup but it represents much better value than Shishkin at this stage.Originally posted by thorne365 View PostComment
-
Or you could see it as the last two to attempt it wonComment
-
Of the two, Shishkin has the potential to be much shorter in the market. The way WPM trains ABP, he's unlikely to be shorter than 2/1, maybe 6/4 at the off. If Shishkin is going to be as good as many think, he could be heavily odds on in the Arkle like many Arkle favourites in recent years (Altior, UDS, Douvan, Simonsig and Sprinter).Comment
-
That’s a fair response FM, obvs depends who lines up but I’d be very surprised if ABP is sub 3/1 on the day, only just won it this year and a year older. No doubt a decent chance of following up but highly unlikely to see a dramatic price collapseOriginally posted by Faugheen_Machine View PostComment
-
Shishkin for the arkle & santini Gold cup or champ.
Also think epatante will be very hard to beat.
As things stand, HENDO’s stable looks the business, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. They all did incredible this year and touch wood they all turn up fit & healthy on the day. He will give the Irish a run for their money.
Love Henderson and love his current stable.
Shishkin is a beast and I’ll be cheering him home and feel confident I’ll be smug with my 5s come the 16th March 2021!Comment
-
OK, I've bitten the bullet and done the leg-work.
Supreme Novice Hurdle winners record in the Arkle the following season: I could only easily find a record for the last 32 years.
9 Supreme winners went chasing the following season
7 of them ran in the Arkle
2 Won
7 Supreme winners didn't race the following season
17 more stayed hurdling
12 ran in the Champion Hurdle - none won
Only 3 out of the 32 Supreme winners triumphed at the Festival the following season: Douvain and Altior (Arkle) and Vautour (JLT)
1986 River Ceiriog - did not race following season
1987 Tartan Tailor - fell on chasing debut, reverted to hurdles, 7th in Champion Hurdle
1988 Vagador -5th in Champion Hurdle
1989 Sondrio - did not run following season
1990 Forest Sun - 7th in Stayers Hurdle
1991 Destriero - stayed hurdling, did not run at the Festival
1992 Flown - 8th in Champion Hurdle
1993 Montelado - did not race the following season
1994 Arctic Kinsman - 2ND IN ARKLE
1995 Tourist Attraction - didn't race the following season (retired to stud)
1996 Indefence - didn't race the following season
1997 Shadow Leader - fell in the Champion Hurdle
1998 French Ballerina - didn't race following season (retired)
1999 Hors La Loi III - 2nd in Champion Hurdle
2000 Sausalito Bay - no race in 2001
2002 Like-a-Butterfly - 10th in Champion Hurdle
2003 Back in Front - kept to hurdling, didn't run at the Festival
2004 Brave Inca - 3rd in Champion Hurdle
2005 Arcalis - 5th in Champion Hurdle
2006 Noland - 3RD IN ARKLE
2007 Ebaziyan -12th in Champion Hurdle
2008 Captain Cee Bee - 8TH IN ARKLE
2009 Go Native - 10th in Champion Hurdle
2010 Menorah - 5th in Champion Hurdle
2011 Al Ferof - 4TH IN ARKLE
2012 Cinders and Ashes - pulled up in Champion Hurdle
2013 Champagne Fever 2ND IN ARKLE
2014 Vautour - won JLT Novice Chase over 2m 4f
2015 Douvan - WON THEARKLE
2016 Altior - WON THE ARKLE
2017 Labaik - didn't race following season (retired)
2018 Summerville Boy - stayed hurdling, didn't run at Festival
2019 Klassical Dream - stayed hurdling, didn't run at FestivalLast edited by nortonscoin200; 19 April 2020, 07:45 PM.Comment
-
Good work NC.
But just for clarification, the 2013 Arkle running has been expunged from records and is a forbidden discussion topic on this forum...Comment
-
Originally posted by nortonscoin200 View Post
True that - but Apparently a Huntington race Prep also meant that it was impossible for shishkin to win the supreme (100 race preps and zeros supreme winners), I just think these kind of stats are there to be broken and instead you just have to look at the horse for what it is and make a judgement on that alone.
Shishkin has also beat every likely arkle runner expect darver star who , in my opinion, just isn’t cut from the same cloth.
Captain Guinness & Elixir D’Ainey may have placed but don’t think would have won.Comment
-
Originally posted by nortonscoin200 View Post
To be fair I think those stats ActAully look fairy good towards arkle form as each winner that took place in the arkle the following year all placed. If Shishkin is the horse we (certainly I ) think he is , then he should go better than the placed efforts .
Also good ground work, and thank you for sharing. Always good to get another angle !Comment
-
This is another race that I find very difficult to watch back! Annie Power, CoF and the 2013 Arkle hurt the most.Originally posted by Istabraq View PostComment
-
I couldn't agree more with the above, if you were to look at stats alone would you have backed ABP for this years gold cup, conygree the year he won it as a novice, defi winning the JLT after winning the scilly isles (there was a stat about scilly isles winners winning at cheltenham).
I think stats should be looked at alongside all the other information, its not something id use to say a horse can't win or is a rubbish price.Comment
-
Whats peoples thoughts on JP runners for the champion hurdle. He'd have epatante, Buveur D'air and espoir d'allen providing they come back from injury. All 3 are previous winners of the race and will probably be aimed there again if they are fit.
Does JP also fire saint roi at the race?....that would be some hand if they all got their well. Could 1 of them maybe switch to a different race?.....im not sure they would.Comment
-
I hate to disappoint you but Espoir D’Allen died!Originally posted by sprintersacren View PostComment
Comment