Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[JackieMoon33]

It would indeed be an easy game if the more money you threw at a horse the better it turned out. I doubt there is anyone in the buying game who hasn't bought at least one dud.

I would be interested to know as to why this horse is more vaunted than Fiston Des Issards who won his point just as impressively and in his case the form has had a couple of nice boosts.

I don’t think Sir Gerhard is more vaunted than Fiston Des Issards, just that I happened to mention him as my personal Cheveley Horse to follow out of their battalion. If Fiston Des Issards would have had the form boosts prior to being sold, he may well have made a similar price. No one can follow every PtP recruit so it’s a case of narrowing down a shortlist. I follow the sales quite a bit during the season in UK and Ireland but I also have a few I’ve noted from France too. I won’t be able to cover them all, let alone come close to predicting the right races and them reaching the level I’d like.

[Middle_Of_March]

Unfortunately, people would vote for where they would run him rather than where they think he'll run. Big difference (cf. Allaho).

We could have two different polls for want and expect though couldn’t we?

[FaugheenTheMachine]

BALLYADAM 40-1 skybet for the supreme. Seems a big price? Jamie codd got off him at downPatrick and said he could be the best he’s ever ridden , and he’s been on envoi Allen and some other class horses. He’s best price 20-1 for the ballymore and I know the stable have ferny hollow , I think ballyadam could be speedy horse at 2 miles ? Any quotes on ferny and is he defo being aimed for the supreme yet do we know?

Jamie Codd didn’t say that

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Not having the Punchestown/Aintree bumpers clouds the pictures somewhat but have we heard whispers from Closutton r/e next years Supreme horse? Always fun having a Ricci horse at a price that then doesn’t win (these days!)

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Not having the Punchestown/Aintree bumpers clouds the pictures somewhat but have we heard whispers from Closutton r/e next years Supreme horse? Always fun having a Ricci horse at a price that then doesn’t win (these days!)

Would be nice if they managed to just turn up lol

[Faugheen_Machine]

Not having the Punchestown/Aintree bumpers clouds the pictures somewhat but have we heard whispers from Closutton r/e next years Supreme horse? Always fun having a Ricci horse at a price that then doesn’t win (these days!)

Chevley Park are the new Rich Ricci

[The King Pimm]

Not having the Punchestown/Aintree bumpers clouds the pictures somewhat but have we heard whispers from Closutton r/e next years Supreme horse? Always fun having a Ricci horse at a price that then doesn’t win (these days!)

Has anyone heard or read anything about Flysmart? He was one of RR’s best novice hurdle chances but he’s still yet to race in Ireland or Britain??

[Eggs]

Has anyone heard or read anything about Flysmart? He was one of RR’s best novice hurdle chances but he’s still yet to race in Ireland or Britain??

...I recall somebody mentioning it on here, 27-1 (with boost) in Hills any race market.

[The King Pimm]

...I recall somebody mentioning it on here, 27-1 (with boost) in Hills any race market.

I don’t mean odds wise but in terms of progress as he was flagged up as a horse to follow in the pre season books and had quite a bit of hype early on but has disappeared off the radar. I was toying with taking the 27/1 e/w but curious if anyone had seen or heard anything about him before I do??

[Cooldaddy]

Going back to CoF. I was on it and gutted so hopeful I am not biased in my view.
I have watched the race back an number of times and for me he jumps the last he wins. Spinning off the bend they were all looking to quicken and had pressed the button. CoF made up 5l during this time upto the last. It looked to me like he would have had a proper battle with Pileon but would have got up.
The winner ran a cracker, but the fall of CoF made it possible giving it a free run against the rail.

[billymag]

I don’t mean odds wise but in terms of progress as he was flagged up as a horse to follow in the pre season books and had quite a bit of hype early on but has disappeared off the radar. I was toying with taking the 27/1 e/w but curious if anyone had seen or heard anything about him before I do??

Think I heard pre chelt that he wouldnt take up his Supreme engagement coz he has an allergy infection?

[The King Pimm]

Ok thanks Billy Mag.

I’ve just had Pileon added to the TWAR market with William Hill, they’ve priced him at 25/1 so 27/1 with the boost

[nortonscoin200]

I've come a bit late to the party on this one but whichever way you look at it Shishkin is a lousy bet for the Arkle at 4-1.

If you want to pick a short-priced favourite for a race 11 months away why is no-one talking about Al Boum Photo because the 6-1 for a Gold Cup hat-trick represents far better value IMHO.

While Shishkin has yet to jump a fence in public ABP's whole season will revolve around winning a race we know is well within his compass. And I don't think Willie Mullins will lose any sleep over the next 9 in the betting - which include 4 of this season's novices, a horse who's been out for a year and a mare who's run 3 times over fences and will be 10 next year.

If Shishkin was 10-1 for the Arkle I'm sure many would be tempted but history is very much against him and a true reflection of his odds is probably 20-1.

Guess how many Supreme winners have gone on to victory in the Arkle the following season since 1975?

The answer is just two - Douvan (2016) and Altior - (2017) out of 43 opportunities.

Some people have pointed out that Shishkin didn't have a very clear passage in the Supreme and did well to win - which is true.

But replays of the race show that Shishkin's troubles were mostly of his own making. He made a mistake at the third and needed to be ridden along for a few strides and then he was ridden along again at the top of the hill when the pace quickened. Others were going much better, specially Abacadabras. Sure, Shishkin did well to win the race but is he an exceptional Supreme winner - in a similar bracket to Douvan and Altior - I very much doubt it.

Good luck to everyone who has taken the price on Shishkin but to my mind the value in the Arkle lies very much in the fact that all except the front three in the market are at least 25-1 bar.

[thorne365]

Guess how many Supreme winners have gone on to victory in the Arkle the following season since 1975?

The answer is just two - Douvan (2016) and Altior - (2017) out of 43 opportunities.

In the last 10 season only 4 have tried - Champage fever and Al ferof both failed [Menorah 5, if you count a missed year - also beaten by Sprinter Sacre] - so i assume there hasn't actually been 43 opportunities?

[Nortons who]

Ok thanks Billy Mag.

I’ve just had Pileon added to the TWAR market with William Hill, they’ve priced him at 25/1 so 27/1 with the boost

Thanks King Pimm, Pileon was an eye catcher for me in the Martin Pipe so I have taken some of the ANY race now available.