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Nope. If you've had a bet you're hopelessly compromised. Think of the whingeing about Allaho last season and Samcro the season before.
Disagree. The question is where people think EA will run. Those that have backed him have surely backed him in the race they think he'll run in, therefore the poll would be valid.
Like most of us on the thread I had a few points on Column of Fire in the Martin Pipe and he was set to be one of my biggest single returns of the week if he had won but I rewatched the Martin Pipe today on youtube and I’m not convinced he would have won. The jockey was working him to get him going on the run to the last and he was wandering quite a bit and I think tiredness was a big factor in his fall and if he had stayed on his feet I’m not convinced he would have got past Pileon regardless of Indefatigable surge. I’m not posting this to antagonise but many of us have been ruing CoF’s fall but I don’t think he would have won the race anyway, I think he was emptying and wasn’t even looking at the final hurdle the way he ploughed through it.
Like most of us on the thread I had a few points on Column of Fire in the Martin Pipe and he was set to be one of my biggest single returns of the week if he had won but I rewatched the Martin Pipe today on youtube and I’m not convinced he would have won. The jockey was working him to get him going on the run to the last and he was wandering quite a bit and I think tiredness was a big factor in his fall and if he had stayed on his feet I’m not convinced he would have got past Pileon regardless of Indefatigable surge. I’m not posting this to antagonise but many of us have been ruing CoF’s fall but I don’t think he would have won the race anyway, I think he was emptying and wasn’t even looking at the final hurdle the way he ploughed through it.
Like most of us on the thread I had a few points on Column of Fire in the Martin Pipe and he was set to be one of my biggest single returns of the week if he had won but I rewatched the Martin Pipe today on youtube and I’m not convinced he would have won. The jockey was working him to get him going on the run to the last and he was wandering quite a bit and I think tiredness was a big factor in his fall and if he had stayed on his feet I’m not convinced he would have got past Pileon regardless of Indefatigable surge. I’m not posting this to antagonise but many of us have been ruing CoF’s fall but I don’t think he would have won the race anyway, I think he was emptying and wasn’t even looking at the final hurdle the way he ploughed through it.
Having backed the 1-2 I am perhaps a little biased but I don't think the result was any certainty. We will never know how much Column Of Fire would have found but Indefatigable found six lengths on Pileon who wasn't stopping. In fact she has found even more from two out because her passage was anything but a straight line. Had she not got there it would be pretty easy to argue she would have been an unlucky loser.
Like most of us on the thread I had a few points on Column of Fire in the Martin Pipe and he was set to be one of my biggest single returns of the week if he had won but I rewatched the Martin Pipe today on youtube and I’m not convinced he would have won. The jockey was working him to get him going on the run to the last and he was wandering quite a bit and I think tiredness was a big factor in his fall and if he had stayed on his feet I’m not convinced he would have got past Pileon regardless of Indefatigable surge. I’m not posting this to antagonise but many of us have been ruing CoF’s fall but I don’t think he would have won the race anyway, I think he was emptying and wasn’t even looking at the final hurdle the way he ploughed through it.
Interesting you read it that way TKP. I see it completely differently and reckon CoF would probably have won by a couple of lengths.
He jumped the second last in about eighth position, 5 or 6 lengths off the lead.
CoF was still cruising on the outside as they turned for home .
About half way up the straight Eoin Walsh gave him one crack of the whip and he made up about 4 lengths in 25 strides to join the leader at the last.
I can see why you say he wandered. But I think the reason was that the horse realised as they approached the hurdle that he was on the wrong stride. I think he was trying to sort himself out - and also lost a bit of momentum in the process. But I don't think it was down to tiredness.
But I maintain Pileon did slightly tie up after the last and still only just got caught on the line by Indefatigable. Most of the other horses vying for minor honours also made ground on Pileon up the hill.
I think Walsh still had enough in the tank to have won comfortably - in keeping with the way CoF finished well on his only try over 3m in the £50 handicap at Leopardstown in February.
I backed CoF to win and was on the 1-4 acca too. so I had - for me - a biggish vested interest.
I watched the race from the centre of the track - from a raised platform just before the final hurdle. Before and during the race I kept telling myself "this isn't going to happen, don't get excited sunshine".
But as CoF passed me I thought: "If he jumps the last there is no way this horse will finish outside the first four and it looks like he's gong to win."
The rest is history.
And I can quite see how you view the race.
But I remain convinced that he would have finished ahead of Pileon and therefore won the race.
Shame we will never know!!
Here's a link to the full race replay for those who haven't already suffered enough:
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It's also worth taking a look at CoF's fall at the second last at Fairyhouse in January - with Davy in the saddle - when he was also about to hit the front going strongly.
He doesn't wander as much approaching the hurdle but it's a pretty similar fall which may have left a scar - maybe that adds to your case or maybe not. Who knows.
But I'm certainly interested to see where he goes next season and reckon stamina will be his strong suit over 21/2 and 3m. But if your reading of the Pipe is right I'm probably going to be chasing losses.
If CoF had placed I would have had a very nice return on 2 multiples, the first a Gigginstown Lucky 63 whose only blot was Notebook and a Gordon Elliot handicap Lucky 31 where all other horses had placed until the last race so probably missed out on around 100 point return but I’ve spent a lot of time getting frustrated about CoF’s fall and Goshens but I think Goshen was bad luck and CoF’s was a horse emptying. I still think CoF is a horse with a big future and got him in a few AP bets for next year. I hope he doesn’t go down the handicap route as they’ll have to lose a few races with him first which I find irritating but he’s talented. After watching the race replay I also think Pilion is horse to keep onside, I think connections want to go chasing with him and I hope he carry’s on improving as he ran a massive race in the MP.
This will be a futile exercise as you could say the same about the pedigree of almost all the expensive PtP recruits. I’m a big fan of Jeremy as a sire and he did very well with his limited numbers. The dam has a flat pedigree but being by Authorized there is some NH substance to her side.
However, this is not flat racing where pedigree counts for everything. You have to factor in the performance and ultimately the price. Most top notch PtP are well known before they race and then jockeys and trainers insight generates the necessary sales price. I don’t think anyone is going to piss away £400K without believing he’s of high quality, even if they do have large resources.
It would indeed be an easy game if the more money you threw at a horse the better it turned out. I doubt there is anyone in the buying game who hasn't bought at least one dud.
I would be interested to know as to why this horse is more vaunted than Fiston Des Issards who won his point just as impressively and in his case the form has had a couple of nice boosts.
Was having a look through the RSA betting and as much as it looks a strong race this far out I thought Dickie Diver stood out at 66-1. Missed this season but don't think it was any major injury and the form of last year's Bartlett looks very good indeed. Minella Indo, Allaho, Lisnagar Oscar and even Salsaretta have more than franked the form. So I thought he was worth a small play at the odds.
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