Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Eireman]

I’ve seen conflicting quotes about Ballyadam from Jamie Codd after his bumper win. The first quote was as above but the second quote was that Ballyadam was ‘the best horse to have run at Downpatrick’. I’m not dismissing the performance in anyway, just saying that it might have been a misquote on Twitter.

Both Ferny Hollow and Ballyadam have a fair amount of stamina in their pedigrees with Ballyadam having slightly more in my opinion. I also wouldn’t just limit their race targets to these two horses as they have six or seven possible high class recruits for novice hurdling next season who could also be top notch.

Assuming they go hurdling with him, Sir Gerhard is the one I like most for the Supreme out of the Cheveley battalion. He won a PtP but he looks sharp and has a speedy pedigree. Everything I’ve seen and read about him makes me think he could be a star.

He said both of those things mate. He said he could be the best horse he's ridden and that he's the best horse this course will ever see(Downpatrick)

[archie]

Good luck in finding Ballyadam in any top horse list based on form.

Nowhere in the Timeform top 20

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/top-horses/timeforms_top_novices

As far as I can see, his best RPR is around joint sixteenth in a list of NHF geldings and there are at least 3 mares who would rate higher with the allowance. It's fair to say that Ferny Hollow improved appreciably in his 3rd run so there's still a chance that Ballyadam may eventually bridge the over a stone difference between the two. However, there are several horses, eg Bob Olinger and Smurphy Enki, who have produced a better figure on their only run to date and, as it stands, he wouldn't even be the best bumper horse in the yard never mind the best that Codd has ever ridden.

He does, at least, make Andy Holding's list:

https://www.oddschecker.com/tips/horse-racing/20200417-andy-holdings-20-bumper-horses-to-follow

[Eireman]

Why do people think Sir Gerhard will go to the Supreme and not have a Bumper campaign?

[JackieMoon33]

Why do people think Sir Gerhard will go to the Supreme and not have a Bumper campaign?

I think it’s mainly me banging that drum. My prediction is based on his age. Ideally horses would be staring their hurdle campaigns as 5yo so I think they’ll not bother with a full bumper campaign with him. I’m just speculating but they may have been keeping him for Punchestown to get him a run but that never happened. Also, the price they paid means they will want to crack on with his career.

[Eireman]

I think it’s mainly me banging that drum. My prediction is based on his age. Ideally horses would be staring their hurdle campaigns as 5yo so I think they’ll not bother with a full bumper campaign with him. I’m just speculating but they may have been keeping him for Punchestown to get him a run but that never happened. Also, the price they paid means they will want to crack on with his career.

I'm not saying your wrong mate just interesting to hear people's thoughts on it.

[JackieMoon33]

I'm not saying your wrong mate just interesting to hear people's thoughts on it.

I’ve been wrong many times before

[Istabraq]

I think it’s mainly me banging that drum. My prediction is based on his age. Ideally horses would be staring their hurdle campaigns as 5yo so I think they’ll not bother with a full bumper campaign with him. I’m just speculating but they may have been keeping him for Punchestown to get him a run but that never happened. Also, the price they paid means they will want to crack on with his career.

Interesting JM.
There was a time that bumpers were used at public schooling sessions just to give a horse experience of a days racing and even his hurdling year was little more than a fitness regime before a lengthy chasing career, but that was before the modern impatient way of life took over and immediate success was demanded so perhaps career targets have changed in line ?
Just look at football management for confirmation.
I think it was Colin Tizzard who said something similar to that too...

[Istabraq]

I’ve been wrong many times before

An early concession, sign of a married man....

[JackieMoon33]

Interesting JM.
There was a time that bumpers were used at public schooling sessions just to give a horse experience of a days racing and even his hurdling year was little more than a fitness regime before a lengthy chasing career, but that was before the modern impatient way of life took over and immediate success was demanded so perhaps career targets have changed in line ?
Just look at football management for confirmation.
I think it was Colin Tizzard who said something similar to that too...

Funny you mentioned Tizzard, he scrapped off a bumper campaign for The Big Breakaway and went straight over hurdles this season.

[JackieMoon33]

An early concession, sign of a married man....

Guilty as charged

[Kevloaf]

He does, at least, make Andy Holding's list:
https://www.oddschecker.com/tips/hor...rses-to-follow

Can they not just furlough him?

[Parachute Paddy]

I think it’s mainly me banging that drum. My prediction is based on his age. Ideally horses would be staring their hurdle campaigns as 5yo so I think they’ll not bother with a full bumper campaign with him. I’m just speculating but they may have been keeping him for Punchestown to get him a run but that never happened. Also, the price they paid means they will want to crack on with his career.

The age thing would play on my mind as well. I wouldn't be surprised if they started him in a bumper at Down Royal then went over hurdles from there, it didn't do Easywork any harm and wasn't Gordon gonna give Malone Road a bumper run back at the start of Nov before he got injured?

The stats for 7yo's winning Supreme's and Ballymore's isn't great reading. It would be enough to put me off Appreciate It and Malone Road for now.

[kinloch brae]

I’ve seen conflicting quotes about Ballyadam from Jamie Codd after his bumper win. The first quote was as above but the second quote was that Ballyadam was ‘the best horse to have run at Downpatrick’. I’m not dismissing the performance in anyway, just saying that it might have been a misquote on Twitter.

Both Ferny Hollow and Ballyadam have a fair amount of stamina in their pedigrees with Ballyadam having slightly more in my opinion. I also wouldn’t just limit their race targets to these two horses as they have six or seven possible high class recruits for novice hurdling next season who could also be top notch.

Assuming they go hurdling with him, Sir Gerhard is the one I like most for the Supreme out of the Cheveley battalion. He won a PtP but he looks sharp and has a speedy pedigree. Everything I’ve seen and read about him makes me think he could be a star.

Other than he cost a lot of money what makes him a Supreme winner?

The pedigree isn't worth 400,000 and the point form wasn't franked. There must have been plenty of horses that won points just as easily, quite possibly against better opposition.

[ComplyOrDie]

I think it’s mainly me banging that drum. My prediction is based on his age. Ideally horses would be staring their hurdle campaigns as 5yo so I think they’ll not bother with a full bumper campaign with him. I’m just speculating but they may have been keeping him for Punchestown to get him a run but that never happened. Also, the price they paid means they will want to crack on with his career.

I prefer the look of the French purchase, Gloire D'athon, another you mentioned.

Is with de Bromhead though who is not renown for his Supreme winners.

[Eggs]

....Ladbrokes have a couple of ‘specials’;

Shishkin to win next seasons Arkle and the Champion Chase the year after - 33-1

Envoi to win 2021 Marsh and the 2022 Gold Cup - 40-1.