Cheltenham 2021 - Ante Post Bets

[Nortons who]

'We are GUESSING/HOPING/ASSUMING that Shishkin takes to fences. At 4/1, you have bascially backed that to already be the case'

I don't agree with this statement Kev, there is already some 'evidence' from the comments made by Nicky Henderson and Nico in the public domain that they can't wait to see Shishkin over fences. Also the way they (and other expert pundits) have enthused about Shishkin post his Supreme win is in my opinion significantly more than a 'guess / hope / assumption' that he will do well next season. In practice maybe he won't but personally Kev despite your experience and knowledge I would rather take what I saw on the track, coupled with what the experts are saying. So I'm on at 5.4-1 ANY race admittedly and glad that I am rather than leaving him alone. I agree he may not turn up but I'd rather have Shishkin on side just now.

[nortonscoin200]

Can we talk about what next season holds for Column of Fire?

Ok, I know it's still a bit raw. Yes I was on the 250-1 acca too.

But after watching re-runs of that finish several times I'm left with the impression that had CoF jumped the last he would have been a very comfortable winner.

He was running off a 9lbs higher mark than Sir Des Champs who sluiced up in the 2m 4f Jewson Chase the following season - and then finished runner-up to Bob's Worth in the Gold Cup the season after that.

I think Column of Fire certainly has the potential to be a top 3m chaser but I could also see him being a big player in the Coral Cup next season if they chose to stick to hurdles - which I doubt because he'll be seven by then.

He's 14-1 to win any race at the Festival (not tempting) but the 40-1 for the RSA is a tad interesting even though it could be a very hot race. He's 25-1 for the NH Chase, 33s for the Arkle and not priced up for the Marsh.

It is a concern that he also fell two out when set to win with Davy in the saddle in the lead up to the Festival.

But that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be a dodgy jumper over the bigger obstacles.

I'd be interested in your thoughts about his likely campaign and whether an early punt represents any value - specially the RSA price.

[Faugheen_Machine]

CoF also had the same rating as the mighty Don Poli, when we won the Martin Pipe.

The problem with CoF is that he could run in one of around 7 races imo. Marsh, RSA, NH Chase, Kim Muir, Ultima, Plate and Close Bros could all be possibilities. I also think he'll turn into a really smart chaser and would have loved the any race prices to be 25/1 or thereabouts. The doubt about which race he would target is enough to put me off at the moment though.

[Outlaw]

I would be surprised if he ended up anywhere other than a hcap again, now that doesn't help narrow it much but given how Gordy has the hcaps by the proverbial he knows the craic. Of course i'm assuming they don't wack him with a Dallas Des Pictons Uk mark after schooling in Ireland

[JackieMoon33]

I would be surprised if he ended up anywhere other than a hcap again, now that doesn't help narrow it much but given how Gordy has the hcaps by the proverbial he knows the craic. Of course i'm assuming they don't wack him with a Dallas Des Pictons Uk mark after schooling in Ireland

I actually think he’ll be better than a handicap chaser and will be competing with Fury Road and Easywork to be the top Gigginstown chaser next season. They have others that will be relegated to handicapping but I think CoF will be running in the top races and being competitive too.

[Istabraq]

I still can’t bring myself to watching the M Pipe again, in fact I can barely type the horses name...

[Outlaw]

I actually think he’ll be better than a handicap chaser and will be competing with Fury Road and Easywork to be the top Gigginstown chaser next season. They have others that will be relegated to handicapping but I think CoF will be running in the top races and being competitive too.

Thats half the point they know he's good so unless he's beating plenty at home they will prob mop up a hcap. Not what us fans want and i'm not doubting he will be a 150 or more animal.

Right in saying that in Ireland they still give a hcap mark for chasing without taking into account previous hurdle exploits? seemingly unlike our hcapper.

[JackieMoon33]

Thats half the point they know he's good so unless he's beating plenty at home they will prob mop up a hcap. Not what us fans want and i'm not doubting he will be a 150 or more animal.

Right in saying that in Ireland they still give a hcap mark for chasing without taking into account previous hurdle exploits? seemingly unlike our hcapper.

But as Gigginstown don’t have a wealth of top notch novice chasers for next season, I don’t think they’ll sacrifice one of the best for handicapping, especially as he’ll likely be treated harshly like DDP was this season.

[Outlaw]

Whilst we're talking Jackie what do you think will be on the agenda for "Early Doors"? after Joseph made a hash of his campaign, thou is still a novice. I know we both seemed to like him at various points of last season.

[Kautostar]

He didn't say that did he? He's saying take in their chase debut.
The obvious example is Sprinter Sacre... would you have known he was a 190 rated chaser based on his hurdling? Would you have picked Denman out? They were clearly decent over hurdles, but chasing is a different discipline.

We are GUESSING/HOPING/ASSUMING that Shishkin takes to fences. At 4/1, you have bascially backed that to already be the case.


Re sprinter sacre 190 no but I remember backing him and denman very early on in their novice seasons as it was evidently clear from their novice hurdling campaigns that there was a good chance they would be at least equally as good if not better over fences. You only had to look at the size of denman to see he would make a better chaser.

The arkle is another race where statistically its nearly always gone to a top rated hurdler apart from the year we don’t speak of and maybe put the kettle on (I can’t be bothered to check her rating right now). There will always be a few that improve massively for fences that are unforeseen like might bite or Lord Windermere but generally you need a high level hurdler to win the 3 novice chases at Cheltenham

[JackieMoon33]

Whilst we're talking Jackie what do you think will be on the agenda for "Early Doors"? after Joseph made a hash of his campaign, thou is still a novice. I know we both seemed to like him at various points of last season.

I wasn’t on Early Doors myself but I’m sure they’ll find something to win with him even if it’s outside the festival.

[Outlaw]

Must be a similar username on here

[JackieMoon33]

Must be a similar username on here

Or someone speaking similar amounts of tripe as me

[Kevloaf]

Re sprinter sacre 190 no but I remember backing him and denman very early on in their novice seasons as it was evidently clear from their novice hurdling campaigns that there was a good chance they would be at least equally as good if not better over fences. You only had to look at the size of denman to see he would make a better chaser.

There must be hundreds of examples of novice hurdlers you've backed that haven't gone on to be as good as you thought though.

That's not even a question, I know it's true.

Hindsight makes it easy, but think about just how many novice hurdlers you've backed that will be better as chasers?

The arkle is another race where statistically its nearly always gone to a top rated hurdler apart from the year we don’t speak of and maybe put the kettle on (I can’t be bothered to check her rating right now). There will always be a few that improve massively for fences that are unforeseen like might bite or Lord Windermere but generally you need a high level hurdler to win the 3 novice chases at Cheltenham

Well, you work out "nearly always" and if it's more than 20% of the time..... take 4/1 and use that as the arguement Shishkin is value.

I really can't be bothered to fact check this properly but hopefully someone can but I'd guess:

Put The Kettle on - wasn't
Duc Des Genievres - wasn't
Footpad - was
Altior - was
Douvan - was
Un De Sceaux - was
W****** W******* - definitely wasn't
Simonsig - wasn't (Overturn rated higher)
Captain Chris - wasn't
Sizing Europe - wasn't
Forpadydeplasterer - wasn't
Tidal Bay - wasn't



Is there a chance, that golden spell has created a bit of a bias towards that being a proven formula though?

Footpad was by default as he spent the extra season over hurdles and achieved a high hudle rating running for places in staying races?

Altior, Douvan and Un De Sceaux all went off odds on in their Arkle's, with no real competition?

Shishkin might do the same, but because the other three have doesn't make 4/1 value.


If Shishkin was 10/1, and I was making the exact same points I'd perhaps say it's value based on those findings..... but to say 4/1 is 'value' based on previous highest rated hurdlers just isn't the case.

[Kautostar]

There must be hundreds of examples of novice hurdlers you've backed that haven't gone on to be as good as you thought though.

That's not even a question, I know it's true.

Obviously like yourself I will back multiple horses in each race, some turn out to be great bets and some awful. Sprinter sacre and denman just happened to be 2 of my better ones